WaPo/ABC News: Biden +2 (RV), +6 (adults)

[Figueira]

This has Trump winning rural areas 72-25 when he won them 60-34 in 2016.

Is there a consistent definition of "rural areas"?

Does anyone have an answer to this? I'm legitimately curious.

[chibul]

I don't know why anybody is surprised by the enthusiasm numbers. The enthusiasm isn't people being overly excited about having Joe Biden as their president, the enthusiasm is people being overly excited to have Donald Trump out of their lives.

I wonder what the NPV would have been if Hillary squeaked out an electoral college win, winning WI, MI, and PA by 1 vote. Somebody that's smarter than me can figure that out.

I do think Biden is going to need to win by like 5 points in order to win the electoral college because I think he's going to increase the Hillary Clinton's victory total in states like New York, California, Texas and he's going to at the very least cut Hillary Clinton's loss in half in states like Ohio.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Why do we keep going back to 2016, Gary Johnson took 3 percent of the vote from Hilary in 2016, that's why he did badly in NM Senate race in 2018 and Libertarian party wont fund him again

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1244283549269843974

[Illiniwek]

(Gulp)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 278 EC map is already built into these polls, unless Trump build a substantial lead over Biden in the polls, of 6-10 points, Biden has a narrow advantage in the EC college

[SN2903]

The 278 EC map is already built into these polls, unless Trump build a substantial lead over Biden in the polls, of 6-10 points, Biden has a narrow advantage in the EC college

Nope.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1244283549269843974

Better safe than sorry. I still think he should strive to be winning in national polls by at least 3.5 points and be at or above 50%.

[morgieb]

This has Trump winning rural areas 72-25 when he won them 60-34 in 2016.

That’s definitely not going to happen.

That definitely could happen.

Sure, but it’s not going to

You sound like me in October 2016

Problem is that there's enough culturally liberal rural areas + large swathes of minority areas that Biden would have be losing the rest of it by 90/10 or something. Is it possible that the rest of rural America votes like the white South? I guess, but it seems a stretch.

Does depend on how WaPo defines rural areas though.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The 278 EC map is already built into these polls, unless Trump build a substantial lead over Biden in the polls, of 6-10 points, Biden has a narrow advantage in the EC college

Nope.

C'mon Trump hasnt lead in a single poll

[ElectionsGuy]

This has Trump winning rural areas 72-25 when he won them 60-34 in 2016.

Two can play at that game. This poll also has Biden winning 57-42 among 65+. That must mean the result should be more Republican.

We are in the middle of Trump's crisis rally bump and he's still losing, lol!

a) You guys say the approval bump that Trump is getting is mostly from Democrats, therefore it makes sense that they still wouldn't end up voting for him.
b) Then go on to say that a poll like this is bad for Trump because of the implication that right now he's polling as well as he ever will.

Pick one. Or don't, and keep thinking that Biden is a shoo-in.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

This has Trump winning rural areas 72-25 when he won them 60-34 in 2016.

Is there a consistent definition of "rural areas"?

Does anyone have an answer to this? I'm legitimately curious.

The U.S. Census does have an official designation for rural vs. urban areas.
https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/geography/guidance/geo-areas/urban-rural.html

I’m not sure if this poll uses it though.

[SN2903]

The 278 EC map is already built into these polls, unless Trump build a substantial lead over Biden in the polls, of 6-10 points, Biden has a narrow advantage in the EC college

Nope.

C'mon Trump hasnt lead in a single poll

He didn't 2016 right before the election either.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The 278 EC map is already built into these polls, unless Trump build a substantial lead over Biden in the polls, of 6-10 points, Biden has a narrow advantage in the EC college

Nope.

C'mon Trump hasnt lead in a single poll

It doesn't matter, your math doesn't work unless Trump is gaining ground in deep blue states.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

BUSH W won reelection based on signing Dem Bill's and putting Dems on defense on natl security.  Bush W also signed no child left behind. Bush W also lead in a poll right before election day. Bill Clinton signed welfare reform right before the 1996 election.

Referendum on Prez have to include copying the other part's agenda and Trump has not signed a single Dem bill. Tarp doesnt count because that is a bailout

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

BUSH W won reelection based on signing Dem Bill's and putting Dems on defense on natl security.  Bush W also signed no child left behind. Bush W also lead in a poll right before election day. Bill Clinton signed welfare reform right before the 1996 election.

Referendum on Prez have to include copying the other part's agenda and Trump has not signed a single Dem bill. Tarp doesnt count because that is a bailout

Obama didn't either by that metric.