WI-SEN (CBS/YouGov): Johnson +1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Ryan and Beasley are outperforming CCM and Barnes just a note and Ryan is up 49/38 and Beasley is down 43/42 in all 4 states the minority vote is gonna look large Ds will win 4 states IA is 3 percent black and IAN hit FL so the other 4 states Ds are favorites

We still have SD, IN and UT as well as FL, FL is not gonna be called when the polls close

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

How are Democrats going to overperform the polls in Wisconsin of all states? Lean R>Likely R

Lol it's called Early Voting VBM just like we won AK and NY 19 it's not Lean R

These are pre Election polls not exit polls I keep telling users this

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R race is Lean R.

Lol do you remember in AK and NY 19 VBM Early vote over performed the polls, have faith we Ds are all voting now, have faith in the 303 blue wall

If Ryan, DEMINGS whom are overperforning polls Ryan 49/38 and Beasley has been tied then we are in good shape to win WI and PA were not gonna to win WI by 6 pts like PA and MI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Tilt/Lean Republican.

It's still kind of surprising Johnson leads in this poll given the crosstabs (favorabilities and issues).

He's not going win, Johnson is the incumbent and we still have 8 percent inflation the Rs we're supposed to have 245 RH and 54 S when they were plus 7 in Fox polls in May, they're the ones underperforming

Also, Hunter Biden is about to get indicted for tax fraud

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It amazes me how users forgot about AK and NY 19 and go back to the same Approval ratings we are just gonna have to prove them wrong again, but how many times are we gonna have to say we are Early voting, the blue wall favors Ds

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R.

That said, I still feel like an R+8 sample is a bit over the top. I'm just not too confident Barnes is the man to dethrone Johnson. It's unfortunate the dude gets always lucky by running against B-tier candidates and in GOP-leaning cycles.

Lol it's called Early voting a 1 pt lead is certainly not Lean R I have said it many times and neither is NV it's gonna be 52/48 Senate with a chance of OH, NC and UT, Nate Silver already said it's more than likely 52/48 the races in OH, NC, UT, WI, NV aren't gonna be called when polls close

Pat Ryan in blue NY 19 just as blue as WI came back from 8 pts down and won by 3 that's -5 Barnes can certainly do better than -1

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R.

That said, I still feel like an R+8 sample is a bit over the top. I'm just not too confident Barnes is the man to dethrone Johnson. It's unfortunate the dude gets always lucky by running against B-tier candidates and in GOP-leaning cycles.

To play devils advocate, Barnes having a 49/51 favorability after a months+ long onslaught of negative ads doesn't signal to me he's necessarily a "B-tier candidate"

PPP just polled this race and had Evers +2 and Barnes tie, Sir Muhammad for some reason like Progressive moderate and Prez Johnson as Ds not Rs think Barnes is a loser, he's not

They already said since GA isn't gonna be a runoff, because Walker TANKED it's a 52/45 Sen OH, NC and UT gonna be close, NOT CALLED WHEN POLLS CLOSE