European Elections 2009 (France)

[Hash]

Full results of TNS-Sofres (sample 1000 - quite small)

UMP 27% (+1) (270)
PS 20% (nc) (200)
Greens 13.5% (+2.5) (135)
MoDem 11% (-2) (110)
PCF-PG 6.5% (-0.5) (65)
NPA 5.5% (-0.5) (55)
FN 4% (-2) (40)
Libertas 4% (-0.5) (40)
LO 2.5% (nc) (25)
AEI 2% (+0.5) (20)
DLR 1% (+0.5) (10)
Others 3% (+1) (30)

Did not express voting intentions 32% (320 people)

62% certain of their choice. BUT: only 53% of Greenies, 55% of MoDem, 56% of NPA. UMP is most solid at 81%

2nd prefs (tag this for any STV simulation!)

NPA: PS 24, PCF 20, Greenies 17, N/A 12, LO 9, MD 8, MPF 4, AEI 2, Others 2, UMP 2
PCF-PG: PS 30, N/A 28, LO 16, NPA 14, Greenies 5, Others 5, MD 2
PS: Greenies 27, N/A 17, PCF 13, MD 13, NPA 11, LO 8, UMP 5, AEI 3, MPF-Others-FN 1 each
Greenies: PS 33, N/A 17, MD 12, NPA 9, PCF 7, AEI 6, Others 6, UMP 6, LO 3, FN 1
MoDem: Greenies 21, N/A 20, UMP 19, PS 18, NPA 9, MPF 6, AEI 3, FN 2, PCF 1, DLR 1
UMP-NC: N/A 36, MD 24, Greenies 15, Others 7, AEI 6, PS 4, NPA 2, FN 2, MPF 2, LO 1, DLR 1

Motivators: Education 40, Buying power 39, Environment 38, Unemployment 37, Crisis in financeland 34, social stuff 31, social protection/welfare 28, EU 20, Insecurity 20, EU borders [aka Turkey] 15, immigration 13, agriculture 11

http://www.tns-sofres.com/_assets/files/2009.06.04-baro-europ2009-v3.pdf

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

For a few days, the Bayrou's campaign has gone down, he clearly shut himself in an anti-line and that's not a good strategy for European elections. I'm still surprised to see Greenies high, probably the fact that those who are interested in ecology are part of those who vote in Europeans.

Well, to sum up, the results of these elections could be:

#1: A very weak right.

#2: A significant fall of the PS.

#3: An eventual burying of the PCF, which could remain hard given that it seems that this party won't stop to exist until they make less than 10 voters, but in case of a good score, and with the energy of Mélenchon who could claim for it, why not...

#4: Some noises speak about an eventual creation of a "France écologie" party that would replace "Les verts".

#5: A Center-Left (PS, Modem, Greenies) which could suit with the sentence of the Tontons flingueurs quoted before, in other words, PS still ahead but no more being the major party it was before, making 3 more or less middle ones.

#6: The abstention could be very important. And the breaking of the 60% remains more than ever possible. Thus, it would express a bigger defiance toward politics and a disinterest toward Europe.

#7: The importance of the results of this elections will have to be put in perspective with that abstention and the fact that that are just European ones.

[Hash]

#4: Some noises speak about an eventual creation of a "France écologie" party that would replace "Les verts".

Such a party would be Les Verts version 2.0, just as the NPA is effectively LCR version 2.0

Anyways, stuff to look out for (specifically on maps). These are not questions, nor are they predictions

1. The UMP's results compared to Sarkozy's April 2007 result. Where are the major gains, loses, stagnations.
2. The PS' results compared to Euros 1999. They'll poll roughly the same, PS2009 slightly lower.
3. Nationally, who wins the Greenie-MoDem battle.
4. Nationally, who wins the NPA-PCF battle.
5. Nationally, does the NPA get any seats (if they're really at 5%, then they could potentially be shut out due to the PR method - highest averages - which informally jacks up the threshold to 6-7% in IdF and up to 10% in Massif/Centre).
6. The NPA-LO's results compared to Euros 1999 (LO-LCR common lists).
7. The Greenies results compared to Euros 1989 (Waechter list) and Euros 1999 (Greenies lists). Especially the former.
8. Do the old CPNT maps reflect on the Libertas map - or is it another His Excellency in Vendee map.
9. Nationally, the abstention which will hit 60% - 65% is also a possibility.
10. The MoDem map compared to the old Christian democracy maps (MRP, UDF). This is the first election where the MoDem's map will mean something.
11. Small parties are always fun. Especially the regionalists in Bretagne and Euskadi - their support patterns will be interesting.
12. The results in those towns that have been in the news due to factory closures - Clairoix, Gandrange etc. Remind me of the others, please.
13. Especially the results of the NPA and PCF in those towns. And the NPA's performance in highly blue collar areas and the NPA's performance in PCF industrial land.
14. If any oddities on the PCF map can be explained by the PG (probably not, but still).
15. Where the FN votes stays relatively stable vis-a-vis 2004/2007 as opposed to massive drops.

[Hash]

Ipsos

UMP 27% (+1)
PS 21% (nc)
Greens 11% (nc)
MoDem 11% (-1)
NPA 6.5% (-0.5)
PCF-PG 6% (+0.5)
Libertas 6% (nc)
FN 5.5% (nc)
LO 1.5% (nc)
AEI 1.5% (-0.5)
DLR 1% (+0.5)
Others 2% (nc)

Turnout estimate: 38-42%
Declared turnout: 49% (lol liars)

http://www.ipsos.fr/CanalIpsos/poll/8614.asp

[big bad fab]

Another TNS-Sofres (the one from yesterday was in fact done on June, 2nd; this one was done on June, 3rd-4th), with a sample of 1000.

UMP 27 (=)
PS 19 (-1)
Greens 15,5 (+2) !! in one or two days !
MoDem 12,5 (+1,5)
PG-PCF 6,5 (=)
FN 5 (+1)
NPA 4,5 (-1)
MPF-CPNT 4 (=)
AEI 1,5 (-0,5)
LO 1,5 (-1)
DLR 1 (=)
others 2 (-1)

Bad for the PS and the NPA, very good for the Greens.
But it's a bit weird.

What it means is that you've got a big pack of moderate voters, from everywhere, who do not want to vote for the PS but who do want to vote against Sarkozy and the government.
But they don't know where to go...

We'll see on Sunday if Bayrou's personal and furious attack on Cohn-Bendit will work....
Cohn-Bendit wasn't very good in his answers,
but Bayrou has given a BIG proof he is ready to do ANYTHING to win the next presidential election.
What a white knight...

2007 was the first "American" election in France, considering polls, organization of campaigns, use of themes and "stories", "pipolisation".
But 2012 will complete this trend with... trash (it was already the case, a bit, in 2007).

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

We'll see on Sunday if Bayrou's personal and furious attack on Cohn-Bendit will work....
Cohn-Bendit wasn't very good in his answers,
but Bayrou has given a BIG proof he is ready to do ANYTHING to win the next presidential election.
What a white knight...

I watched "A vous de juger". Well, because the show had been recorded in the day, "Le grand journal" of Canal+ had announced this clash as a big thing. Well, there have been effectively a clash, but it was at the beginning of the show and i didn't feel it had some weight on the rest of the debate, thus I'm surprised of noise of the media made before and makes now after this show. That said, concerning this clash in itself, that has been the first I saw Bayrou using such some bad populism, that was really "sous la ceinture" ("under the belt") as we say in French. Anyways, I think that both lost in this clash, and such a thing concerning these both parties could make the abstention go still higher, and Mélenchon could profit of this.

Bayrou clearly ran the wrong election. If he makes 12% he could be happy.

This debate also confirmed to me that more than ever Aubry belongs to the past.

2012 is far, so far...will people wait?

[Tender Branson]

Greens 15,5 (+2) !! in one or two days !

[big bad fab]

We'll see on Sunday if Bayrou's personal and furious attack on Cohn-Bendit will work....
Cohn-Bendit wasn't very good in his answers,
but Bayrou has given a BIG proof he is ready to do ANYTHING to win the next presidential election.
What a white knight...

I watched "A vous de juger". Well, because the show had been recorded in the day, "Le grand journal" of Canal+ had announced this clash as a big thing. Well, there have been effectively a clash, but it was at the beginning of the show and i didn't feel it had some weight on the rest of the debate, thus I'm surprised of noise of the media made before and makes now after this show. That said, concerning this clash in itself, that has been the first I saw Bayrou using such some bad populism, that was really "sous la ceinture" ("under the belt") as we say in French. Anyways, I think that both lost in this clash, and such a thing concerning these both parties could make the abstention go still higher, and Mélenchon could profit of this.

Bayrou clearly ran the wrong election. If he makes 12% he could be happy.

This debate also confirmed to me that more than ever Aubry belongs to the past.

2012 is far, so far...will people wait?

Electorally speaking, DSK would be the most probable winner in 2012.
But the PS (or the left involved in open primaries) won't pick him. So.... Sarkozy or a more moderate right-winger with some popularity before 2012. I don't see any, except Borloo, but he's too drunk and disorganized....

[Frodo]

Does anyone see the Greens replacing the Communists as the largest leftwing party in France after the PS? 

[Math]

Greens 15,5

wow, I was expecting the exact contrary at the beginning of the campaign, but it's a very nice move anyway!

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Electorally speaking, DSK would be the most probable winner in 2012.
But the PS (or the left involved in open primaries) won't pick him.

Actually, if he runs and if they are not that dumb, they will be forced to choose him.

So.... Sarkozy or a more moderate right-winger with some popularity before 2012. I don't see any, except Borloo, but he's too drunk and disorganized....

Actually, that's just my opinion but I think that Sarkozy burned everything around him, at the right and at the left. The only who would have some chances today to me on the right would be Villepin.

And, even if now he allows him more populism than ever, Bayrou stays ahead for me, and remains the most decent leader compared to other ones, well maybe except Strauss-Kahn, anyways, he remains the one with the most of chances to win, his only problem is that, as I said, 2012 is still...far, and he's only sized for the presidentials. Such is Villepin. So that guys have a lot of time to make some mistakes, and Bayrou already did in this campaign.

Adding to this Besancenot who pushes to the revolution, that's why i wrote: "will people wait?". If everybody does the climate will be very "heavy".

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Does anyone see the Greens replacing the Communists as the largest leftwing party in France after the PS? 

Personally no. Front de Gauche or NPA, but not Greens, they are too much on a tie with Modem to become that big, and they become more center-left than left it seems.

[big bad fab]

Does anyone see the Greens replacing the Communists as the largest leftwing party in France after the PS? 

Personally no. Front de Gauche or NPA, but not Greens, they are too much on a tie with Modem to become that big, and they become more center-left than left it seems.

Don't forget one thing: political parties are financed with public money, for a large part. And the money goes were the elected politicians are. So, it's hard to grow outside an already entrenched party in the Parliament.
So, the PS is here for a long time, I think.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Does anyone see the Greens replacing the Communists as the largest leftwing party in France after the PS? 

Personally no. Front de Gauche or NPA, but not Greens, they are too much on a tie with Modem to become that big, and they become more center-left than left it seems.

Don't forget one thing: political parties are financed with public money, for a large part. And the money goes were the elected politicians are. So, it's hard to grow outside an already entrenched party in the Parliament.
So, the PS is here for a long time, I think.

Yes, yes, but his question concerned communists and the force coming "after the PS".

[Hash]

Does anyone see the Greens replacing the Communists as the largest leftwing party in France after the PS? 

As the second-largest party in France, probably not for some time. The Greenie electorate is very volatile - they can easily go PS when need be (the most moderate ones can obviously for MoDem) and reduce the Greenies to a joke party. The PCF has a relatively entrenched parliamentary and local caucus (the Greenies have like 10-20 councillors nationally, the PCF way more), strong personal votes for incumbents, and their small electorate is way more solid than the Greenie electorate. So, probably the Greenies and PCF fighting eternally for the second-largest leftie party for a number of years to come.

Though I'll say the Greenies have a more promising future than the PCF because the PCF voter has a much higher average age than the Green voter. And green politics have a better future than REVOLUTION!111/communist politics.

[Hash]

BVA is crap, but they have regional breakdowns

UMP 26%
PS 21.5%
Greens 11%
MoDem 11%
FN 8.5% (rofl)
NPA 6.5%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas 4.5%

http://www.lefigaro.fr/flash-actu/2009/06/02/01011-20090602FILWWW00625-sondage-26-pour-l-ump-le-ps-a-215.php

North West

UMP 23%
PS 22%
MoDem 11%
NPA 9%
FN 9%
Greens 8%
PCF-PG 5%
LO 5%
Libertas 5%
AEI 1%
Carl Lang 1%
Others 1%

East

UMP 24%
PS 20%
FN 15%
MoDem 10%
Greens 9%
NPA 7%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas 5%
LO 1.5%
AEI 1.5% lol @ Waechter
Others 1%

IDF

UMP 30.5%
PS 18%
Greens 16%
MoDem 11%
PCF-PG 7%
FN 5%
NPA 3%
Libertas 3%
AEI 2%
LO 1%
DLR 1%
Anti-Zionist 0.5%
Others 2%

Massif Central-Centre

UMP 27%
PS 23%
Greens 11%
MoDem 10%
FN 9%
NPA 6%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas 3%
AEI 2%
LO 1%
Others 2%

West

PS 24%
UMP 22%
MoDem 16%
Greens 12%
Libertas 7%
NPA 6%
FN 5%
PCF-PG 3%
LO 2%
AEI 1%
Others 2%

South East

UMP 29%
PS 22%
FN 9.5%
Greens 9%
MoDem 8.5%
Libertas 7%
PCF-PG 6%
NPA 5.5%
LO 1.5%
AEI 1%
Others 1%

South West

UMP 24%
PS 21%
MoDem 12%
Greens 11%
FN 8%
NPA 8%
PCF-PG 6%
Libertas 3%
LO 2%
AEI 2%
Others 1%

Other stuff: 2-way race UMP-PS

PS 49%
UMP 36%
NOTA 12%

MoDem: 50 PS/30 UMP/19 NOTA
Greenies: 62 PS/23 UMP/14 NOTA
Mildly amusing tiny LO sample: 65 PS/28 UMP/6 NOTA

Government voting motivations (June 9 2004 in brackets)

Will not vote based on government 51% (16%)
Oppose 24% (46%)
Support 20% (26%)

[Math]

It's amusing to see the PS ahead only in the West constituency.

[Frodo]

Does anyone see the Greens replacing the Communists as the largest leftwing party in France after the PS? 

Personally no. Front de Gauche or NPA, but not Greens, they are too much on a tie with Modem to become that big, and they become more center-left than left it seems.

Don't forget one thing: political parties are financed with public money, for a large part. And the money goes were the elected politicians are. So, it's hard to grow outside an already entrenched party in the Parliament.
So, the PS is here for a long time, I think.

Yes, yes, but his question concerned communists and the force coming "after the PS".

Poorly worded question, but here is what I am trying to say: the Socialists and the UMP are the largest mainstream parties in France.  The Communists have long been the third largest.  According to my understanding, the UMP represents the center-right; the PS the center-left; and the Communists represent the more radical left.  Jean Le Pen and his supporters are occupy the more radical right of this spectrum.  Given the polls here, it seems as if the Communists are imploding somewhat, with Greens surging at their expense.  So, my question to you all was this: does it look as if the Greens are going to overtake the Communists as the largest party on the radical left?

Hope that clears things up....

[big bad fab]

Does anyone see the Greens replacing the Communists as the largest leftwing party in France after the PS? 

Personally no. Front de Gauche or NPA, but not Greens, they are too much on a tie with Modem to become that big, and they become more center-left than left it seems.

Don't forget one thing: political parties are financed with public money, for a large part. And the money goes were the elected politicians are. So, it's hard to grow outside an already entrenched party in the Parliament.
So, the PS is here for a long time, I think.

Yes, yes, but his question concerned communists and the force coming "after the PS".

Poorly worded question, but here is what I am trying to say: the Socialists and the UMP are the largest mainstream parties in France.  The Communists have long been the third largest.  According to my understanding, the UMP represents the center-right; the PS the center-left; and the Communists represent the more radical left.  Jean Le Pen and his supporters are occupy the more radical right of this spectrum.  Given the polls here, it seems as if the Communists are imploding somewhat, with Greens surging at their expense.  So, my question to you all was this: does it look as if the Greens are going to overtake the Communists as the largest party on the radical left?

They've already done it and for a long time: real centrists among the Greens (Lalonde) and "environmentalists" (Waechter) have left for a long time. Since then, the Greens are on the left and more on the left than many in the PS (Hollande, Royal, Delanoë, DSK, even Aubry and Fabius when they are in power).

It's amazing to see (cf. at the end of BVA poll cited by Hash in this thread) that right voters still believe the Greens in France are here to protect little birds....

But, still, the Greens are a real and libertarian left but not a radical left in the sense of the NPA.
And they are not an old left (which is radical only in words), like the PCF and Mélenchon (and Chevènement).

[Associate Justice PiT]

Does anyone see the Greens replacing the Communists as the largest leftwing party in France after the PS? 

Personally no. Front de Gauche or NPA, but not Greens, they are too much on a tie with Modem to become that big, and they become more center-left than left it seems.

Don't forget one thing: political parties are financed with public money, for a large part. And the money goes were the elected politicians are. So, it's hard to grow outside an already entrenched party in the Parliament.
So, the PS is here for a long time, I think.

Yes, yes, but his question concerned communists and the force coming "after the PS".

Poorly worded question, but here is what I am trying to say: the Socialists and the UMP are the largest mainstream parties in France.  The Communists have long been the third largest.  According to my understanding, the UMP represents the center-right; the PS the center-left; and the Communists represent the more radical left.  Jean Le Pen and his supporters are occupy the more radical right of this spectrum.  Given the polls here, it seems as if the Communists are imploding somewhat, with Greens surging at their expense.  So, my question to you all was this: does it look as if the Greens are going to overtake the Communists as the largest party on the radical left?

They've already done it and for a long time: real centrists among the Greens (Lalonde) and "environmentalists" (Waechter) have left for a long time. Since then, the Greens are on the left and more on the left than many in the PS (Hollande, Royal, Delanoë, DSK, even Aubry and Fabius when they are in power).

It's amazing to see (cf. at the end of BVA poll cited by Hash in this thread) that right voters still believe the Greens in France are here to protect little birds....

But, still, the Greens are a real and libertarian left but not a radical left in the sense of the NPA.
And they are not an old left (which is radical only in words), like the PCF and Mélenchon (and Chevènement).

     From my understanding of French politics, Les Verts would really be considered center-left more than radical left.

[Hash]

Does anyone see the Greens replacing the Communists as the largest leftwing party in France after the PS? 

Personally no. Front de Gauche or NPA, but not Greens, they are too much on a tie with Modem to become that big, and they become more center-left than left it seems.

Don't forget one thing: political parties are financed with public money, for a large part. And the money goes were the elected politicians are. So, it's hard to grow outside an already entrenched party in the Parliament.
So, the PS is here for a long time, I think.

Yes, yes, but his question concerned communists and the force coming "after the PS".

Poorly worded question, but here is what I am trying to say: the Socialists and the UMP are the largest mainstream parties in France.  The Communists have long been the third largest.  According to my understanding, the UMP represents the center-right; the PS the center-left; and the Communists represent the more radical left.  Jean Le Pen and his supporters are occupy the more radical right of this spectrum.  Given the polls here, it seems as if the Communists are imploding somewhat, with Greens surging at their expense.  So, my question to you all was this: does it look as if the Greens are going to overtake the Communists as the largest party on the radical left?

Hope that clears things up....

The PCF has not really be imploding this campaign, but they've been dying out slowly since 1981 and they're only surviving because of mutual electoral deals with the PS. This used to be a big deal for both PS and PCF when the PCF got into the second round in a lot of seats, but now it's mainly designed to save a Commie caucus.



The Greenies have a very volatile electorate, and it is very hard for them to make lasting gains. As I said, many of those can very easily vote PS. And the Greenies have no real socio-economic base: the PS-PCF have manual workers, the PS has teachers and lower middle-class people, the right has liberal arts people and farmers etc. The PCF has a small but statistically stable electorate.

The PCF now goes into periods of steady decline (cf: 1997-2007) and minor gains on the back of a weak and divided PS (cf: 1992-1997, 2009- ).

The Greenies won't overtake the PCF as the second party of the left in the next few years.

     From my understanding of French politics, Les Verts would really be considered center-left more than radical left.

When people such as Waechter, Lalonde, Wehrling were still Greenies, then yes. But now that it's the party of Mamere, Lipietz, Voynet, the Greenies have become like the Portuguese Green Party (in perpetual coalition with Commies) or a Greener version of the Portuguese Bloco de Esquerda (libertarian radical left).

Moderate greenies have moved from being Green supporters in the Waechter day (1989-1993) to supporting the MoDem or moving into irrelevancy into the UMP or PS.

Anyways, as fab said, the Greenies don't protect the little birds anymore.

[Hash]

May the fun commence!

Fillon, Sarkozy, Bruni (voting right-wing for the first time in her life, apparently), the Drug Addict, Aubry, Bayrou have all voted.

Turnout at noon was 14.81% (13.62% in 2004)

In the Atlantic Section, turnout is lower than in 2004:

-Saint-Pierre et Miquelon : 21,35 %  contre 18,25 en 2004
-Guyane : 12,59 %  contre 14,39 en 2004
-Guadeloupe : 14,61 % y compris Saint-Barth et Saint-Martin) contre
15,28% en 2004
-Martinique : 13,83 % contre 17,95 en 2004

[Hash]

http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-europeennes/portfolio/2009/06/07/les-personnalites-politiques-votent-pour-les-europeennes_1203573_1168667.html

Picture 1 is especially funny. You would think that Carla votes Green and that Sarko votes Libertas.

For those who want live streaming, France2 starts at 19:45 local time, LCP has something too (I don't know if there's live streaming), France3, TF1-LCI, I-Tele probably all have stuff too.

Exit polls at 20:00 local time, as per usual. That is 14:00EST.

[Hash]

Cool little AFP visuals:

http://info.france3.fr/elections/europeennes-2009/resultats/france/

http://info.france3.fr/elections/europeennes-2009/resultats/europe/

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

http://www.lemonde.fr/elections-europeennes/portfolio/2009/06/07/les-personnalites-politiques-votent-pour-les-europeennes_1203573_1168667.html

Picture 1 is especially funny. You would think that Carla votes Green and that Sarko votes Libertas.

For those who want live streaming, France2 starts at 19:45 local time, LCP has something too (I don't know if there's live streaming), France3, TF1-LCI, I-Tele probably all have stuff too.

Exit polls at 20:00 local time, as per usual. That is 14:00EST.

For those who don't go in the television coverage thread:

The both news channel of our free TV network will make the best cover:

i>télé will rule it from 7h30pm to 0am (local time). And at about 9am there will be Domenach and Zemmour, could be intersting.

BFM TV will also make the whole evening on it.