2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread
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Author Topic: 2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread  (Read 622651 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7375 on: November 04, 2020, 04:41:44 PM »
Quote from: Crumpets on November 04, 2020, 04:40:41 PM
Not sure if this has already been posted (about 45 minutes old), but:



Nice, though I worry it'll be heavily from some specific part of the state and skew the state heavily one direction and we have either an atlas meltdown or a cocky atlas
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7376 on: November 04, 2020, 04:42:00 PM »

Looks like GA-07 will flip easily too
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President Johnson
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« Reply #7377 on: November 04, 2020, 04:42:28 PM »
Joe's remarks almost made me cry. Imagine a president like this rather than the clown.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7378 on: November 04, 2020, 04:42:52 PM »
It's kind of darkly ironic that the result everyone expected in late 2018/early 2019 is what's happening.

Senate: Flip AZ and CO, lose AL.

Presidency: Biden/Harris win back PA/MI/WI, maybe one more
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #7379 on: November 04, 2020, 04:43:15 PM »
Watching Eric Trump and Giuliani in Philadelphia screaming about claims of voter fraud.

This pathetic scene would be hilarious if this weren't so serious.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7380 on: November 04, 2020, 04:43:57 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 04, 2020, 04:42:52 PM
It's kind of darkly ironic that the result everyone expected in late 2018/early 2019 is what's happening.

Senate: Flip AZ and CO, lose AL.

Presidency: Biden/Harris win back PA/MI/WI, maybe one more

Though the margins in specific states and regions are certainly unexpected. Definately going to be fun to analyze this election
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Admiral Kizaru
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« Reply #7381 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:00 PM »
Weird how AP/Fox are confident enough to call Arizona yet haven't called Michigan yet which seems far more certain right now. Guess it does give me some hope that they're not just being gung-ho with that call.
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
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« Reply #7382 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:04 PM »

It would be pretty crazy if Sabato had a perfect presidential map considering how much of a disaster his congressional picks were.
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Kuumo
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« Reply #7383 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:12 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 04, 2020, 04:42:52 PM
It's kind of darkly ironic that the result everyone expected in late 2018/early 2019 is what's happening.

Senate: Flip AZ and CO, lose AL.

Presidency: Biden/Harris win back PA/MI/WI, maybe one more

This election is starting to feel like a redux of 2018.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #7384 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:20 PM »
Thank you Lawrenceville! Great honor!
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HisGrace
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« Reply #7385 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:39 PM »
Would be nice if Biden could complete the comeback and win Penn and we don't have to wait for Nevada to decide it. Trump's lead is down to around 5 and it seems like Biden gains a few tenths of a percentage every time the count goes up even by one percentage point.
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American2020
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« Reply #7386 on: November 04, 2020, 04:44:44 PM »
Quote from: Ferguson97 on November 04, 2020, 04:42:52 PM
It's kind of darkly ironic that the result everyone expected in late 2018/early 2019 is what's happening.

Senate: Flip AZ and CO, lose AL.

Presidency: Biden/Harris win back PA/MI/WI, maybe one more

Maybe the Democrats should always consider to take care of the Blue Wall and attract more latinos than this year.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7387 on: November 04, 2020, 04:45:14 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Gov. NickG on November 04, 2020, 04:44:04 PM

It would be pretty crazy if Sabato had a perfect presidential map considering how much of a disaster his congressional picks were.

There'd have to be a huge comeback in North Carolina, but other than that they might nail it.
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AndyHogan14
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« Reply #7388 on: November 04, 2020, 04:45:45 PM »
NYT just called Michigan.
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NYSforKennedy2024
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« Reply #7389 on: November 04, 2020, 04:45:53 PM »
Between GA, AZ, some NV numbers tonight, and PA rumors - would not be shocked if a network prematurely calls a winner tonight. I think we all know who we hope it is though.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #7390 on: November 04, 2020, 04:46:14 PM »
Quote from: Georgia Democrat in 2020 on November 04, 2020, 04:43:15 PM
Watching Eric Trump and Giuliani in Philadelphia screaming about claims of voter fraud.

This pathetic scene would be hilarious if this weren't so serious.

At least they picked the two Trump people least respected by the media and the public writ large.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7391 on: November 04, 2020, 04:46:30 PM »
Trump down to +66K in GA. Was just +75K.

Trump 2,400,388 (50.1%)
Biden 2,334,333 (48.7%)
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Crumpets
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« Reply #7392 on: November 04, 2020, 04:46:43 PM »
NYT just called Michigan!
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Storr
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« Reply #7393 on: November 04, 2020, 04:47:02 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2020, 04:56:55 PM by Storr »
This is really just me thinking through EV scenarios, but I thought it might be helpful for others.

Assuming Trump wins NC and GA (which aren't final atm) he'd need Pennsylvania and either Arizona or Nevada. His paths to 270 are very narrow (especially since he's currently down in the last two states I mentioned) with Biden winning Michigan and Wisconsin.

All possible wining outcomes assuming Trump holds on in NC and GA:
Trump (w/ NC and GA) + PA + NV = 274

Trump (w/ NC and GA) + PA + AZ = 279

Trump (w/ NC and GA) + PA + AZ + NV = 285

Biden + PA = 273

Biden + AZ + NV = 270

Biden + NV + PA = 279

Biden + AZ + PA = 284

Biden + AZ + NV + PA = 290

Edit: math is hard on three hours sleep. oops.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #7394 on: November 04, 2020, 04:48:39 PM »
Quote from: Admiral Kizaru on November 04, 2020, 04:44:00 PM
Weird how AP/Fox are confident enough to call Arizona yet haven't called Michigan yet which seems far more certain right now. Guess it does give me some hope that they're not just being gung-ho with that call.

Fox has called Michigan for Biden.

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Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook
The Obamanation
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« Reply #7395 on: November 04, 2020, 04:49:21 PM »
AP still hasn't called Michigan.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7396 on: November 04, 2020, 04:49:42 PM »
What state do you think will be called next?

States still up in the air: AZ, NV, PA, GA, and NC
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #7397 on: November 04, 2020, 04:50:13 PM »
Yep, according to Fox, Biden is only 6 electoral votes away from the White House.
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President Punxsutawney Phil
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« Reply #7398 on: November 04, 2020, 04:50:14 PM »

(not mine. I didn't know who made it. But yeah.)
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American2020
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« Reply #7399 on: November 04, 2020, 04:50:18 PM »
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