🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[Alcibiades]

After more than two years of stalemate, the Grand Coalition has agreed to some compromise to cap the size of the Bundestag ahead of the next election. Right now, there are 709 members (598 is the regular size), already by the far the most in history and one of the largest parliaments in the world. During the next session after the 2021 election, a commission is supposed to work out another reform, aiming to reduce the number of districts from 299 to 280. It's still a ridiculous compromise since it doesn't solve the the overall problem with the current election law. But obviously no side wants to give up seats. The politicians clearly have failed to their work here. The Left, Greens and FDP actually presented a joint proposal that would have gone more far, but the the Grand coalition has rejected it.

The issue here is the so called "personalized proportional representation". Out of 598 seats, 299 are assigned to the individual winner of that district. That means you have two votes on the ballot, one for your local candidate, and one for your party (splitting is possible). But if a party wins more districts than they are supposed to be represented according to the result by party, the other parties get additional seats, until the composition of the Bundestag actually fits the overall result. The problem: the usual size of 598 seats explodes the more parties are in the Reichstag building. If the 2021 election result is close to current polling, there might be 800 seats. Not only would costs explode, it would also make the legislative branch a complete mess. Observers and MPs themselves already say it's way too much.

My personal preference would be a simple majority vote by district similar to the US and UK. I'd create 598 districts rather than just 299, and then have two rounds of voting, to make sure the winner of each district isn't just elected with 30% or less. In a first round, each party would run their candidate, while in the second round the two who came out on top face each other. This may break the CDU's dominance, especially with 598 rather than 299 districts, since SPD and Green voters would likely back each other, depending on who advances to the runoff (in addition to the left and even parts of the FDP may not vote for the CDU candidate). With such a voting system, the government would function much better since a fractured legislative is a source of instability and tends to produce just minimal compromises. Furthermore, with smaller districts, the elected representatives would be closer to their constituents.

Surely there isn’t much appetite in Germany to scrap proportional representation, though? The solution would most likely be a reduction in constituency numbers, or some other way which preserves proportionality while ensuring a stable-sized Bundestag.

[Alcibiades]

Why are the FDP surging? I know that they initially took a hit in the polls after the 2017 election because of Lindner’s antics in the coalition talks.

Also, what are the rules on exemptions from the 5% threshold, and what other parties are exempt? I assume it is something to do with national minorities.

[Alcibiades]

Die Linke are flirting somewhat with the 5% threshold now - some recent polls have them only 1% above it now. It would certainly be quite an astonishing result if they failed to enter the Bundestag, although I suppose some direct mandates could still save them.

[Alcibiades]

The SPD certainly look on track to have peaked at the right time, and hopefully their momentum can be sustained for another month until election day. Laschet, despite being ostensibly the Merkel continuity candidate, really seems to be a dreadful choice for a party for whom a large number of their voters have been attracted by their previous leader’s reputation for competence and seriousness - qualities which, to say the least, Laschet does not possess in the eyes of most of the electorate.

One thing I do wonder is whether, now he is very much in the limelight, the media will turn a more critical eye on Scholz like they have already done on Baerbock. Hopefully he proves scandal-proof.

[Alcibiades]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

I really wouldn’t say that our cursed electoral system is an example for any other country, let alone Germany - their governments have been far more stable than ours over the last few years! (And that’s before you even consider the fairness/democratic aspect.)

[Alcibiades]

A good example of why First Past the Post is a better system.

I really wouldn’t say that our cursed electoral system is in any way better than Germany’s - their governments have been far more stable than ours over the last few years! (And that’s before you even consider the fairness/democratic aspect.)

I don't think the electoral system has been the main reason for that - forgive me if I'm wrong, but it strikes me that in Germany there is quite a lot of consensus on the major issues/broad direction of the country. We were able to call an election 2019 to resolve much of that (something which wouldn't have been possible if we had a codified constitution with the FTPA, though that's a slightly different matter). If there were an issue like Brexit splitting Germany in half, I don't think the system would deal that well with it - just look at what small factions/parties (notably the Northern Irish) were able to do and scale that up to a German system with six "important" parties. Importantly, the voters were able to make a clear break with the past in 2019 (albeit by voting for the same party) which is not possible in a system which makes it difficult to vote a government out. Aside from usually unstable hung parliaments, you know you're going to get a Labour/Tory government in the UK. Who knows what strange coalition will come out of the German election? If I vote Labour I can be reasonably confident I'm voting for a Labour government*, whereas if I voted SPD in 2017 (or now?), how do I know whether they're going to go into government with the right (CDU) or far-left (Linke)?

*The SNP makes this difficult, but that's sort of a "break" in the FPTP system.

I don’t want to veer this thread off-topic and turn it into a debate on electoral systems, so all I will say for now is that your post seems to be neglecting the important fact that a majority of British voters did not want a Tory government in 2019 (and in fact a greater number voted for nominally-pro second referendum parties).

[Alcibiades]

The Prots are going red again! Party like it's 2002!

Ah, beautiful to see my ancestral Lower Saxon heartland painted in deep red!

[Alcibiades]

At this stage, Ampel has to be by far the most likely coalition barring a dramatic reversal in the current polling trends, surely? I realise that the FDP would prefer a Jamaica coalition, but if the CDU/CSU do end finishing a distant second, there would surely be enormous pressure from both within and outside the party to go into opposition, and outrage if the SPD, as clear winners of the election, were excluded from government.

At the debate last night, Scholz was careful not to rule out R2G, but I feel he is probably only keeping it open to use as leverage over the FDP. I doubt the SPD and Greens would want to risk toxifying their brand among moderate voters by going into coalition with die Linke.

The only other options are Kenya and Germany coalitions, but there is no reason why the SPD should want to go into another coalition with the CDU/CSU, even as the senior partner, so this leaves Ampel as by far the most viable coalition.

[Alcibiades]

This is a leaked proposal for an Ampel cabinet, supposedly drawn up by the Seeheimer Kreis, the main group representing the SPD’s right.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MartinGreive/status/1432696725051949069

The SPD would get Chancellor (obviously), Interior, Labour, Health, Family, and Economic Development, the Greens would get Foreign Affairs, a newly merged Climate, Environment and Energy Ministry, Justice, Agriculture, and Transport, and the FDP would get Finance, Economy, Defence, and Education.

[Alcibiades]

Any chance of an SDP-FDP-Linke coalition? That would be my preference

I am calling for a total and complete shutdown of Americans entering the international elections board until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

[Alcibiades]

With regards to constituencies to watch, I’ll be keeping an eye on the big cities in the south. Pre-reunification, the SPD always used to win some seats in Munich, Nuremberg and Stuttgart even if they were losing nationally, but in the 21st century, they’ve really faded away there - this year provides a good opportunity to reverse that. The Greens will probably do well in Stuttgart, but it will be interesting to see how many seats in Munich the SPD can win.

[Alcibiades]

Despite the exit polls being closer than we thought, make no mistake that this is an emphatic rejection of the CDU/CSU by the electorate, and a good result for the SPD.

[Alcibiades]

I’m not sure if anyone had this on their bingo card of big names potentially missing out on a seat in the Bundestag.

https://mobile.twitter.com/emrshtn/status/1442204519069323265?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[Alcibiades]

So if a party finishes below 5% but gets the 3 FPTP seats, they won’t enter parliament with solely those 3 seats but all of the seats due to them based on their "Zweistimmen" vote share (in addition to FPTP seats), correct? Or is there another threshold then (e.g. party needs both 3 FPTP seats and 3% on the second question)? I guess Yes/No, but a confirmation would be nice.

Yes, winning 3 or more constituencies entitles a party to their share of list seats regardless of their overall Zweitstimmen percentage.

[Alcibiades]

It’s actually quite surprising how close the SPD ran the Greens in Freiburg for the Direktmandat. Also interesting to see the Greens win the Zweitstimmen in Hannover II.

[Alcibiades]

BBC: German election: Seven things we learned

The 8th point was in fact relevant for the election.
Because some polling station ran out of ballots, additional ballots had to be delivered subsequently, which however was fraught with difficulties, as the streets were congested owing to the Berlin Marathon.

Hahahahaha wow

This is NYCBOE-level incompetence. Playing against the German stereotype here.

Although this very much fits with Berlin’s reputation within Germany.

[Alcibiades]

To put into perspective just how historically bad this result is for the Union, not only did they get their lowest vote share ever, but this election also saw their lowest ever raw vote total after only 1949. Humiliating considering that the pre-reunification Federal Republic only had a population of 50-60 million.

[Alcibiades]

Best Union result (on the list) was not in Bavaria but Lower Saxony: Clopenburg-Vechta with 38.4%. That's less than the CDU's national result in 2013.

Anyone know why the CDU is so strong in that particular seat? It's surrounded by SPD seats, too.

As Astatine explained, it’s a largely Catholic rural area.

[Alcibiades]

Regrettably not possible to provide lower level data for Chemnitz: stadtteil figures do exist and could be aggregated, but, alas and unusually, they do not include postal votes. I've also not bothered with thicker boundaries for local government areas as they are mostly very new and very artificial in Saxony and would only confuse matters.

Is that small patch of strong CDU support in the northeast of the state a largely Sorbian area?