Israeli General Election: April 9, 2019

[Famous Mortimer]

Hadash-Ta'al has no Jews in realistic spots?

[DavidB.]

Hadash-Ta'al has no Jews in realistic spots?

Ofer Cassif at #5.

[Walmart_shopper]

Hi, simple and armature question from me:   My understanding is that Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  If so then why are Arab parties only winning around 9%-11% of the vote?  Is it because not all Arabs are citizens (my understanding is that people in East Jerusalem can vote which I assume have to include that Arabs that live there)? Is it because Arab turn out a lower rates?  Perhaps Christian and Druze Arabs do not vote for the Arab parties?  If so why do they vote for?

I am asking because it seems to me if the Arab parties can get to around 20% of the seats they can pretty much cause political chaos by forcing constant grand coalitions since in such a situation I cannot see how Right-Religious or the Left-secular bloc every getting a majority without bringing in Arab parties into the government or buy them off.

Arab turnout is the lowest of all sectors. Some simply boycott/shrug off Israeli elections, although I think that's starting to change. Especially this year the expectation is for a more significant Arab turnout. Usually the Arab vote is diffuse between Meretz, Avodah, Shas (incredibly), and the biggest chunk is for the Arab parties.

If Arabs voted in average numbers and worked within more established parties then the country would he transformed politically. People who talk about "the Israeli public" being right wing always forget about the 25 percent of the population that isn't Jewish (and isn't right wing).

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/RaoulWootliff/status/1100818653426130944

Here we go boys!

[parochial boy]

Hi, simple and armature question from me:   My understanding is that Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  If so then why are Arab parties only winning around 9%-11% of the vote?  Is it because not all Arabs are citizens (my understanding is that people in East Jerusalem can vote which I assume have to include that Arabs that live there)? Is it because Arab turn out a lower rates?  Perhaps Christian and Druze Arabs do not vote for the Arab parties?  If so why do they vote for?

I am asking because it seems to me if the Arab parties can get to around 20% of the seats they can pretty much cause political chaos by forcing constant grand coalitions since in such a situation I cannot see how Right-Religious or the Left-secular bloc every getting a majority without bringing in Arab parties into the government or buy them off.

It's a combination of the reasons you listed causing the disparity. Most Arabs in Jerusalem are not citizens and can't vote, turnout is lower amongst Arabs, most Druze vote for various Zionist parties. Also while the vast majority of (non-Druze) Arabs voted for the Joint List last elections, more of them voted for Zionist parties than Jews voting for the Joint List.

What kind of a non-Druze Arab votes for the Zionist parties? I may be remembering incorrectly, but didn't someone like Avigdor Lieberman have something of a Bedouin consitituency at one point, largely for pork barrel type reasons?

[Walmart_shopper]

Hi, simple and armature question from me:   My understanding is that Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  If so then why are Arab parties only winning around 9%-11% of the vote?  Is it because not all Arabs are citizens (my understanding is that people in East Jerusalem can vote which I assume have to include that Arabs that live there)? Is it because Arab turn out a lower rates?  Perhaps Christian and Druze Arabs do not vote for the Arab parties?  If so why do they vote for?

I am asking because it seems to me if the Arab parties can get to around 20% of the seats they can pretty much cause political chaos by forcing constant grand coalitions since in such a situation I cannot see how Right-Religious or the Left-secular bloc every getting a majority without bringing in Arab parties into the government or buy them off.

It's a combination of the reasons you listed causing the disparity. Most Arabs in Jerusalem are not citizens and can't vote, turnout is lower amongst Arabs, most Druze vote for various Zionist parties. Also while the vast majority of (non-Druze) Arabs voted for the Joint List last elections, more of them voted for Zionist parties than Jews voting for the Joint List.

What kind of a non-Druze Arab votes for the Zionist parties? I may be remembering incorrectly, but didn't someone like Avigdor Lieberman have something of a Bedouin consitituency at one point, largely for pork barrel type reasons?

Shas attracts a segment of Arab voters with their big theme of fighting for those who are "transparent" in society. The liberal and left parties attract middle and upper class Arabs who are more integrated into Israeli society and are more comfortable looking beyond existential questions of whether Israel should even exist and instead seek to turn the Israel that does exist into a country that protects the rights and opportunities for its non-Jewish minority population. The Arab population is actually a lot more diverse and complex than people outside the country really appreciate. And so the politics of that sector are pretty complex, too. 

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/RaoulWootliff/status/1100818653426130944

Here we go boys!

Haaretz is reporting that the Likud is bracing for losing five seats from just this announcement. The big question is obviously where those seats go. In any case, it's hard to see Bibi wind up as PM is Likud ends up finishing ten or more seats behind Gantz on election day, regardless of how the respective blocs perform.

[DavidB.]

In the meantime I hope we still believe and support women...

[Hnv1]

https://twitter.com/RaoulWootliff/status/1100818653426130944

Here we go boys!

Rubbish. 2000 is the easiest bribe case of them all. He’s also rumored to consider not publishing any of the materials until the election. What a soft and pathetic AG

[Hnv1]

In the meantime I hope we still believe and support women...

I do, but I honestly don’t see why something that happened with teen Gantz in the early 70’s is interesting. And I don’t even like him.

Labour’s new toy, Rosso, on the other hand...

[America Needs R'hllor]

In the meantime I hope we still believe and support women...

I do, but I honestly don’t see why something that happened with teen Gantz in the early 70’s is interesting. And I don’t even like him.

Labour’s new toy, Rosso, on the other hand...

What about him?

Also the woman should obviously be heard out but it seems to me like the accusations against Schumer/Bobby Scott/Booker so far. Very political in language and source. We'll see.

[Walmart_shopper]

In the meantime I hope we still believe and support women...

I do, but I honestly don’t see why something that happened with teen Gantz in the early 70’s is interesting. And I don’t even like him.

Labour’s new toy, Rosso, on the other hand...

That's another downside about going all in with Kahanists--you lose all moral authority. A Gantz who exposed himself 40 years ago when he was some kid is infinitely better than a Netanyahu who exposed Israeli government to Kahanism this year when he was prime minister.

[Walmart_shopper]

https://twitter.com/RaoulWootliff/status/1100818653426130944

Here we go boys!

Rubbish. 2000 is the easiest bribe case of them all. He’s also rumored to consider not publishing any of the materials until the election. What a soft and pathetic AG

Mandelblit wants to protect the electoral process from his influence. But shouldn't the electoral process be influenced precisely by things like proof that the prime minister running for re-election used his position to commit crimes that endanger the democratic process and the political integrity of the Israeli political system? The right wingers are now sending death threats to Mandelblit's home. He's already crossed the Rubicon so he might as well do right by the people he's there to protect, which is us, and show us the evidence.

[jaichind]

In the meantime I hope we still believe and support women...

I find the timing of these accusations (just like Kavanaugh and Fairfax) very disturbing.  Not saying they are not true but concerning nevertheless.  On the other hand the more more these things that take place the net impact of these last minute accusations will have less and less impact over time. 

[America Needs R'hllor]

In the meantime I hope we still believe and support women...

I find the timing of these accusations (just like Kavanaugh and Fairfax) very disturbing.  Not saying they are not true but concerning nevertheless.  On the other hand the more more these things that take place the net impact of these last minute accusations will have less and less impact over time. 

I don't like the timing argument. Of course women who were hurt by a man and were too scared to speak out would find it more urgent to speak to prevent this man from being a SC Justice/Senator/President/Prime Minister/Governor. It makes perfect sense. It's the tone and the connections behind that person I'd watch out for.

[Hnv1]

In the meantime I hope we still believe and support women...

I do, but I honestly don’t see why something that happened with teen Gantz in the early 70’s is interesting. And I don’t even like him.

Labour’s new toy, Rosso, on the other hand...

What about him?

Also the woman should obviously be heard out but it seems to me like the accusations against Schumer/Bobby Scott/Booker so far. Very political in language and source. We'll see.

Has a long history of frivolous conduct with his 19 year old secretaries. Or so I’ve heard

[Oryxslayer]

I care about sexual allegations, but the problem for the right might be that Israel won't. As smoltchanov constantly says, different countries have different political cultures and are tolerant of different things. #MeToo has been purely a US phenomenon to the best of my knowledge.

On a different note, there have been two polls this week. Both find a gap of more then five between B&W and Likud, but only one has the pure right government over 60 seats.

Maagar Mochot/Midgam

B&W: 36/35
Likud: 31/29
New Right: 9/6
Labor: 8/9
JH/TK/Otzma: 8/5
UTJ: 7/7
Hadaash/Taal: 7/7
Shas: 7/5
Meretz: 7/4
Balad/Raam: 0/5
YB: 0/4
Kulanu: 0/4

If Likud loses 5 seats purely off of the indictment, and lets be generous and say only 2 cross the block lines to B&W, then they will definitely begin to look like a party in chaos. They would be down more than 10 on B&W, a gap that we assume be more than enough to give Gantz the first attempt at government formation. But there is still a more than a month until people go to the polls...

[Walmart_shopper]

In the meantime I hope we still believe and support women...

I find the timing of these accusations (just like Kavanaugh and Fairfax) very disturbing.  Not saying they are not true but concerning nevertheless.  On the other hand the more more these things that take place the net impact of these last minute accusations will have less and less impact over time.  

I don't like the timing argument. Of course women who were hurt by a man and were too scared to speak out would find it more urgent to speak to prevent this man from being a SC Justice/Senator/President/Prime Minister/Governor. It makes perfect sense. It's the tone and the connections behind that person I'd watch out for.

I'm not at all saying that she's lying. I actually suspect she's telling the truth.  But here is her facebook page: https://m.facebook.com/navarone.jacobs.5

Doesn't exactly scream rando Israeli woman with no interest in politics just a desire to let the truth be known. She's clearly very firmly on the very political right and wants a lot of people to know it.

It's entirely possible that the allegations are both true AND politically motivated. They should probably be evaluated as exactly that.

[America Needs R'hllor]

In the meantime I hope we still believe and support women...

I find the timing of these accusations (just like Kavanaugh and Fairfax) very disturbing.  Not saying they are not true but concerning nevertheless.  On the other hand the more more these things that take place the net impact of these last minute accusations will have less and less impact over time.  

I don't like the timing argument. Of course women who were hurt by a man and were too scared to speak out would find it more urgent to speak to prevent this man from being a SC Justice/Senator/President/Prime Minister/Governor. It makes perfect sense. It's the tone and the connections behind that person I'd watch out for.

I'm not at all saying that she's lying. I actually suspect she's telling the truth.  But here is her facebook page: https://m.facebook.com/navarone.jacobs.5

Doesn't exactly scream rando Israeli woman with no interest in politics just a desire to let the truth be known. She's clearly very firmly on the very political right and wants a lot of people to know it.

It's entirely possible that the allegations are both true AND politically motivated. They should probably be evaluated as exactly that.

I guess it's a possibility, but her clear political convictions and the language of the posts doesn't exactly scream authenticism. She has a right to be heard out and we'll see, but for now it looks Booker-esque to me.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I care about sexual allegations, but the problem for the right might be that Israel won't. As smoltchanov constantly says, different countries have different political cultures and are tolerant of different things. #MeToo has been purely a US phenomenon to the best of my knowledge.

On a different note, there have been two polls this week. Both find a gap of more then five between B&W and Likud, but only one has the pure right government over 60 seats.

Maagar Mochot/Midgam

B&W: 36/35
Likud: 31/29
New Right: 9/6
Labor: 8/9
JH/TK/Otzma: 8/5
UTJ: 7/7
Hadaash/Taal: 7/7
Shas: 7/5
Meretz: 7/4
Balad/Raam: 0/5
YB: 0/4
Kulanu: 0/4

If Likud loses 5 seats purely off of the indictment, and lets be generous and say only 2 cross the block lines to B&W, then they will definitely begin to look like a party in chaos. They would be down more than 10 on B&W, a gap that we assume be more than enough to give Gantz the first attempt at government formation. But there is still a more than a month until people go to the polls...

#MeToo made a lot of waves in Israel and there were accusations against many major figures in the public life.

[DavidB.]

I care about sexual allegations, but the problem for the right might be that Israel won't. As smoltchanov constantly says, different countries have different political cultures and are tolerant of different things. #MeToo has been purely a US phenomenon to the best of my knowledge.

It really hasn't. Israel isn't like America where every accusation is viewed as complete and full evidence (at least if the alleged perpetrator is on the right), but plenty of countries, including Israel, had their own #MeToo discussions which have taken down quite a lot of powerful people.

[Oryxslayer]

I care about sexual allegations, but the problem for the right might be that Israel won't. As smoltchanov constantly says, different countries have different political cultures and are tolerant of different things. #MeToo has been purely a US phenomenon to the best of my knowledge.

It really hasn't. Israel isn't like America where every accusation is viewed as complete and full evidence (at least if the alleged perpetrator is on the right), but plenty of countries, including Israel, had their own #MeToo discussions which have taken down quite a lot of powerful people.

Oh #Metoo was certainly a global phenomenon, and I'm not denying that politicians have sex scandals - that's a normal occurrence. However, what I meant was as you noted: the accuser getting the halo of truth and the accused being a politician, the events occuring during 2017/2018 period, and the scandal results in the man becoming a political anchor - losing a election or losing th media battle for a period. Glacing over the #Metoo wiki page, there are a few other countries that bring down a few politicians, but the #MeToo movement is more about women's dignity when it went global, with the public targets being private rather then public individuals.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Apparently, feminists are mostly in consensus that this case falls under the "very good reason not to believe" category- the woman's language is very atypical of sexual assault survivors, she made a lot of posts that obsessively attacked the #metoo movement in the close past, and she had political support from Minister Miri Regev's office. I'm inclined to agree.

Also:

https://twitter.com/RaoulWootliff/status/1100818653426130944

Here we go boys!

Rubbish. 2000 is the easiest bribe case of them all. He’s also rumored to consider not publishing any of the materials until the election. What a soft and pathetic AG

My opinion of Mandelblit has been pretty high but I increasingly agree that this is really a disgrace. Apparently he's not going to release the materials until after the election, which practically means that the indictment will only come in early 2020 because Netanyahu's attorneys need time to review the materials and then decide whether they want a hearing. The public interest is definitely for the truth to come as fast as possible, and I don't even care about the election- just the thought of letting Netanyahu continue in his role for years because of these slow procedures while he's basically 99% confirmed to be an extremely corrupt man is bizarre. Mandelblit is acting against the public interest of knowing the truth and soley for the interest of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on this.

Apparently 21 of the 23 attorneys in Mandelblit's appointed team thought 2000 is a bribery case. Mandelblit decided it's breach of trust just because Netanyahu negotiated such a gross bribe but the deal wasn't implemented. Also, Noni Mozes will be indicted for giving bribe so I just don't get how Bibi didn't receive it.

[DavidB.]

So Mandelblit "intends to" indict Netanyahu but there will be a hearing in which he can defend himself first, and this hearing will take place after the election. Could be worse for him.

[Walmart_shopper]

So Mandelblit "intends to" indict Netanyahu but there will be a hearing in which he can defend himself first, and this hearing will take place after the election. Could be worse for him.

No, this is just how the Israeli legal process works. This was the announcement that we have been waiting for and talking about. In Israeli law an indictment can come only after a hearing. The question was whether and for what the attorney general would announce his decision to indict. It could be worse for Bibi in the sense that it could be murder instead of bribery, but this is really bad.