Turkey referendum, 2017

[jaichind]

Via the Standard.at live-ticker:

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WTF ?

"The National Election Commission has just announced that only 70% of precincts have been counted yet and not the more than 97% reported by newspapers and TV stations. The opposition parties CHP and HDP are speaking of irregularities and want to contest the referendum."

Well 70% is most likely official certified results and 97% is most likely local counts that has been fed to the media.

[jaichind]

The Yes vote share tracks AKP vote share Nov 2015 in non-Kurd areas. In Kurd areas Yes well over-performed the Nov 2015 AKP vote.  It seems this referendum was in the end won in the Kurd areas and the international vote.

[jaichind]

There seems that there was significant MHP defection from the Yes camp, especially in Western Turkey.  This seems to be a East-West divide.  In the West the Yes vote ran much lower than the Nov 2015 AKP-MHP vote.  Over in the East the Yes vote ran much higher than the Nov 2015 AKP-MHP vote.

[jaichind]

The Yes position clearly got a bunch of HDP votes. Example, in ŞIRNAK

In Nov 2015 the vote was
HDP  184,396
AKP    27,148
CHP     3,273
MHP     3,081
Other   2,338

Now the vote is
Yes    58,823
No   148,215

Even if all Nov 2015 AKP and MHP voters voted Yes, another 28K mostly HDP voters voted Yes.

[jaichind]

why would so many kurdish voters/liberal voters suddenly support erdogan?

If I were a Kurd nationalist I would vote Yes.  A Erdoğan with near absolute power is much more likely to work out a deal with the Kurds.  A politically vulnerable Erdoğan would never work out a deal with the Kurds since he needs them as a whipping boy to get the votes to survive. 

[jaichind]

why would so many kurdish voters/liberal voters suddenly support erdogan?

Kurdish voters have always had a strong Erdoganist component. After all he represents the more religious nationalist end that includes them, as opposed to the more exclusively ethnic Turkish nationalists.

Yes but what took place today seems to break all historical patterns for AKP in Kurdish areas.  Lets take my example of ŞIRNAK

The Yes position clearly got a bunch of HDP votes. Example, in ŞIRNAK

In Nov 2015 the vote was
HDP  184,396
AKP    27,148
CHP     3,273
MHP     3,081
Other   2,338

Now the vote is
Yes    58,823
No   148,215

Even if all Nov 2015 AKP and MHP voters voted Yes, another 28K mostly HDP voters voted Yes.

In 2007 and 2011 when AKP was at its peak popularity in Kurdish areas AKP only won 33K and 36K respectively.   The Yes vote of nearly 59K shows that this vote the AKP is breaking all historical barriers by large margins in terms of its vote getting prowess in Kurdish areas once we factor in the 2-3K vote for MHP which was for Yes on paper in this vote.

[jaichind]

no will win with 51.5%

Which will then be readjusted to 48.5%.

Prophetic prediction. 

[jaichind]

TRY up around 3% relative to friday close.

[jaichind]

Pretty much all the votes are counted.  It seems that with the international vote it is Yes 51.63%-48.37%. The winning margin is well above 1.6 million votes.   CHP-HDP are complaining that last minute changes in rules are allowing up to 1.5 million "unsealed" ballots to be counted.  Of course even if all of them were for Yes and all of them were thrown out Yes would still win by over 100K.

[jaichind]

It seems that the provisions passed in the referendum will only take place after the next Presidential/Parliamentary elections which in theory will be in 2019.  Of course it is likely that Erdoğan  will push up the date of that election so he can win and then be President under a Presidential system. 

[jaichind]

Honestly there is a piece of my brain that wonders why leaders like Erdogan want to continue to centralize and usurp power from others for themselves. Surely he can get a nice pension, go move to Cote D'Azur or something and have a nice retirement which would be less stressful than running a train wreck of a country? There is something deeply odd about the obsession with power these people have and Obama correctly pointed it out a few years ago in Ethiopia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpkQ6HQCbuE

He is in a situation in which we Chinese call "Riding a Tiger and Not Being Able to Get Off (騎虎難下)."  Of course he can retire but his successor will not truly believe that he is really out of politics and will see him as a threat.  I doubt he can enjoy his large pension in peace for long before his successor will need to "look into" charges of his "corrupt activities" as a preventive move.

[jaichind]

Honestly there is a piece of my brain that wonders why leaders like Erdogan want to continue to centralize and usurp power from others for themselves. Surely he can get a nice pension, go move to Cote D'Azur or something and have a nice retirement which would be less stressful than running a train wreck of a country? There is something deeply odd about the obsession with power these people have and Obama correctly pointed it out a few years ago in Ethiopia:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpkQ6HQCbuE

He is in a situation in which we Chinese call "Riding a Tiger and Not Being Able to Get Off (騎虎難下)."  Of course he can retire but his successor will not truly believe that he is really out of politics and will see him as a threat.  I doubt he can enjoy his large pension in peace for long before his successor will need to "look into" charges of his "corrupt activities" as a preventive move.

THIS

the more enemies you got, the more dangerous it is for you to let loose.

jelzin made a deal with putin granting him and his family immunity before sharing power.

What saved Yelsin was not the deal he made with Putin but more that he was in such poor physical shape that it was clear that he could not possibly be a threat to Putin.  The deal he made with Putin was more about saving his family from prosecution for the various looting they did during Yelsin's reign.  Putin was glad to keep his end of the bargain only because  there was zero chance of political revival for the Yelsin clan.  That might be a way out for  Erdogan if and when he is ready to step down.  Perhaps he can have a fake heart attack and then claim that he is in a near comatose state.  Then he can retire and hope his successor does not find out about it. 

[jaichind]

Looking at the vote shares in the referendum and the Nov 2015 elections by province and using regression/least squares one derives that Yes got

94.5% of the Nov 2015 AKP vote
~0.0% of the Nov 2015 CHP vote
14% of the Nov 2015 MHP vote
19% of the Nov 2015 HDP vote
95% of the Nov 2015 SP and BBP vote

So in the end AKP getting MHP to support the referendum did not really pull in the MHP vote.  There were significant rebellion within MHP toward the MHP position to support Yes and it seems the MHP rebels mostly won.  The Nov 2015 CHP vote held strong and did not leak any votes toward Yes. What saved the Yes campaign was the Nov 2015 HDP vote.