1912: No Roosevelt

[Rob]

Despite his immense popularity and strong support from progressive Republicans, TR decides not to challenge President Taft for the Republican nomination. Although deeply critical of his former friend's administration, he offers a tepid endorsement and departs the US for an international tour in 1912. His reasoning- "Will is going to take a terrific beating", and the nomination will be his for the taking in 1916.

The Democrats nominate Governor Woodrow Wilson on a platform that combines the obligatory Democratic support for states' rights with progressive ideas like the graduated income tax; the Socialist Party nominates the legendary Eugene Debs for the fourth time.

As the campaign heats up, voter enthusiasm is increasingly centered on Debs, who lays claim to being the only true progressive in the race. He assails Taft as an out-of-touch reactionary and mocks Wilson as an opportunist for his belated support of leftist policies. Although most prominent Roosevelt Republicans (including Hiram Johnson of California) have reluctantly endorsed Taft, a great deal of TR's grassroots support seems to be going to Debs. The nation waits impatiently for the results...

Wilson wins decisively, with 45 percent of the vote to 36 percent for Taft and a surprisingly strong 17 percent for Debs. The electoral vote is 327-173, with Debs carrying five states for 31 electoral votes. The exultant candidate claims a moral victory, and looks forward to a greater share of the vote in 1916.

You know what to do... say who you'd vote for, post maps and scenarios of how you think the race would unfold, etc.

And I vote for Debs, of course.

[Rob]

I don't believe Debs would carry any states. Most of the TR vote would have gone to Taft giving him a slim margin of victory. I still would have voted for Chafin.

Looking back at my orignial post, I do think that I overestimated the movement of TR voters to Debs. A more reasonable showing would be this:

Wilson wins with 45 percent of the popular vote to 40 percent for Taft and 13 percent for Debs; the electoral vote is 303-221-7. Debs wins pluralities in Nevada and Montana, while running second in a number of other states (including Minnesota and Wisconsin). Altogether a fantastic showing for the third party, which in OTL was badly hurt by Roosevelt's candidacy (the Progressives "stole" many Socialist ideas for their platform).

[Rob]

Well I wouldn't say that they stole Socialist ideas.

They adopted a number of Socialist policies (for example, state ownership of the railroads), and it was widely recognized at the time that they were siphoning votes from Debs. That said, I realize that the bulk of TR's support came from middle-class reformers and prosperous farmers- the "better people", not likely to vote for a fighting champion of the proles like Debs. That's why I have so many states switching to Taft, and the bulk of Teddy's popular vote.

But TR's support in the west would have broken strongly for Debs, imo. Scruffy ranchers and the like were his base out on the frontier.

Rob- Take a look at 1924. LaFollette carried only his home state and was the Progressive nominee as well as endorsed by the Socialists. I still don't see Debs carrying any states in 1912. His appeal was not agrarian but more industrial so Montana and Nevada just don't fit.

Actually, he ran best in rural states- his strongest support was among miners and struggling farmers. His best state in the nation was Oklahoma; the four counties he carried (one in Kansas, one in North Dakota, two in Minnesota) were agricultural.