https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?fips=12The big difference is that Clinton polled consistently only in the mid to High forties, which is exactly where she wound up. Trump woundup largely sweeping the undecideds in no small part due to a combination of the Comey announcement first and foremost, and secondarily conservative-leaning Independents willing to give him a chance as president before they could stomach president Hillary.
Fast forward to today. Biden is consistently polling at or just above 50% in FL. My estimation is that here, like in most states, if he breaks 49.0% he'll probably at least win a narrow plurality victory. So not only is Trump going to have to repeat sweeping the undecideds despite now being a known entity with a record that these undecided voters are already unsure about, plus with the apparent absence of a true, Comey press conference level scandal to seriously impact voters Minds outside the faithful, but further do something to materially reduce Biden's support from where it currently stands, which he failed to do even against Clinton. Repeat that last Clause to yourself for full impact.
Frankly, one could say this especially Nationwide, and for more than enough States for Biden to hit 2 70. There's only a handful of contested States like Iowa, Texas, Georgia, and - - - - Ohio where Biden is still consistently falling short enough of 49 to 50% that even Trump's theoretically sweeping the undecideds like he did 4 years ago could be enough to win those States. But even then he'd still resoundingly lose re-election.
Furthermore, at this point I think of trump and his supporters are aware of it, which is why they're praying for a massive scandal to intervene deus ex machina Style.
