Ontario Election 2022

[King of Kensington]

I have Hamilton East-Stoney Creek in the PC column.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/davidakin/status/1532491353892048911?s=20&t=cKFMxrIi_fcG...

[adma]

What happens in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek? 

Without setting anything in stone, I'll say this: it's a case where the NDP have the lowest-profile candidate of the "big three" + Miller, so they'd *really* require the raw legacy momentum of party machinery to put them over the top--and I tend to agree that the dynamics (both blue-collar and Stoney Creek ethnoburban) are rather Tory-favourable, and that the 3rd place federally last year should have sent the ONDP a message, whatever the "Horwathland" advantage.  (And another open NDP seat worth monitoring on such lowest-political-profile-candidate-of-the-three grounds is Windsor-Tecumseh.)

In both Hamilton East-Stony Creek and Windsor-Tecumseh - the NDP is running young racialized candidates. Is it your view that anyone young and racialized is ipso-facto "low profile" and "weak". To be a strong candiadte, does one have to be a middle white guy who screams and yells a lot?

Well, the Libs + Tories in both seats are or have been either municipal councillors or "celebrities" of a sort.  (Which was also an advantage the NDP's young/racialized Matthew Green had in Hamilton Centre federally.)

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Voted earlier today. My polling station was a ghost town so it was quick. Not even going to try to make a prediction since weird vote splits could produce any number of outcomes but of course it doesn't look like Ford will lose.

The Liberals have been absolutely obnoxious with their "we're the Only Choice to defeat Doug Ford!" shtick, despite having done nothing to demonstrate why they should be treated as the default opposition. Del Duca's platform is like a bingo card of Liberal boutique issues that don't actually motivate anyone, plus a few planks that if anything exclusively motivate his opponents. It would be extremely satisfying if the Liberals came third at least in seats if not in the PV so the hacks that treat "strategic voting" as "always vote Liberal" can get a pie in the face.

Horwath is a weak leader yet she's still probably better than any of the likely replacements. I think her political instincts aren't bad and she's avoided stepping on any landmines but winning the Premiership isn't just a matter of not screwing up, especially considering the NDP's reputation. With Ford as the incumbent and both the media and public perception treating the Liberals as the "real opposition" she needed to leverage her role as Official Opposition Leader to shape the narrative instead of chasing the ones created by the other two parties. A Notley-esque moderate left populist campaign where she hammers Ford over and over on healthcare, hydro, grocery bills (granted she's put these issues in the platform but she's hardly emphasized them as the core of the campaign) while avoiding the stereotypical NDP cultural issues like the plague could have given her a shot at winning otherwise uncompetitive key seats in the North and Southwest. Even if she lost, by clearly differentiating from the Liberals and competing in ridings they can't win anyway she'd reduce the vote inefficiency and have a clearer shot at least a minority government. Instead she basically let Del Duca take full control of the narrative only to crash and burn anyway and she might somehow let Doug Ford come out of this election with more seats.

Schreiner has done a good job but with the lack of infrastructure the Greens are really only competitive in a half dozen ridings on their best day. If the NDP and Liberals keep face planting the Greens might be a serious contender in a few more elections.

Finally, New Blue picked a stupid name and then inexplicably picked yellow as their official colour (so what, yellow is the New Blue?) whereas the Ontario Party's platform is downright theocratic and Derek Sloan is a tool. The latter actually had a surprisingly strong candidate in my home riding but I ended up throwing away my vote for New Blue instead. My best guess is that "right wing Other" gets a bit under 5% in the end.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

What happens in Hamilton East-Stoney Creek? 

Without setting anything in stone, I'll say this: it's a case where the NDP have the lowest-profile candidate of the "big three" + Miller, so they'd *really* require the raw legacy momentum of party machinery to put them over the top--and I tend to agree that the dynamics (both blue-collar and Stoney Creek ethnoburban) are rather Tory-favourable, and that the 3rd place federally last year should have sent the ONDP a message, whatever the "Horwathland" advantage.  (And another open NDP seat worth monitoring on such lowest-political-profile-candidate-of-the-three grounds is Windsor-Tecumseh.)

In both Hamilton East-Stony Creek and Windsor-Tecumseh - the NDP is running young racialized candidates. Is it your view that anyone young and racialized is ipso-facto "low profile" and "weak". To be a strong candiadte, does one have to be a middle white guy who screams and yells a lot?

I don't think that's fair. Let's look at the candidates' profiles:

Hamilton East--Stoney Creek:
Jason Farr (Liberal): City Councilor (though the ward he represents isn't in Hamilton East--Stoney Creek)
Neil Lumsden (PC): Former player and director of the Ti-Cats, involved in some football-related ventures in Hamilton
Paul Miller (Ind.): Incumbent MPP, formerly NDP, served for 15 years and won four terms in the very same riding
Zaigham Butt (NDP): CRA accountant, former director of a Pakistani-Canadian business association

Clearly Miller has a bigger profile than Butt, you won't contest that. Farr is not a local councilor, but he is a sitting councilor and has held elected office. Butt's main challenger here is Lumsden, and while throwing some pigskin around isn't exactly political experience, there are probably more CFL fans in the riding than people involved in Pakistani-Canadian business ventures.

Windsor--Tecumseh:
Andrew Dowie (PC): Sitting councilor in the Tecumseh City Council.
Gary Kaschak (LIB): Sitting councilor in the Windsor City Council.
Gemma Grey-Hall (NDP): "Major gift officer" at uWindsor.

Looking at those two profiles, it's not unreasonable to say that the NDP candidates have less profile than their major-party challengers, and Paul Miller in Zaigham Butt's case.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Liberals have been absolutely obnoxious with their "we're the Only Choice to defeat Doug Ford!" shtick, despite having done nothing to demonstrate why they should be treated as the default opposition. Del Duca's platform is like a bingo card of Liberal boutique issues that don't actually motivate anyone, plus a few planks that if anything exclusively motivate his opponents. It would be extremely satisfying if the Liberals came third at least in seats if not in the PV so the hacks that treat "strategic voting" as "always vote Liberal" can get a pie in the face.

I voted PC and I align more with the Liberals than the NDP. That said, I absolutely want to see the Liberals get pie in their face tonight. Del Duca has come off weirdly arrogant in this campaign, despite being the leader of a party that doesn't even have official status in the legislature. Whereas seeing Horwath drop below 20 would just be sad.

[Mike88]

Live CBC feed for election night:

[DistingFlyer]

One last poll graph update:

[trebor204]

Back in 2018, CBC called for a PC gov't under 14 minutes after the polls close, and a majority after 20 minutes.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY14V2CgDNI&t=13377s

[brucejoel99]

PC landslide inbound:

https://twitter.com/cbcqueenspark/status/1532503797951614976

[Oryxslayer]

List of all places which won't be reporting instantly in the next 20 minutes.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

PC landslide inbound:

https://twitter.com/cbcqueenspark/status/1532503797951614976

Yep, wouldn't be surprised if they cross 40% popular vote. Though low turnout might also help the NDP hold off the Libs, simply because they have more incumbents

[TwinGeeks99]

The polls have closed.

[Oryxslayer]

NDP ahead in Richmond Hill!



Ignore that there is only 1 vote...

[trebor204]

Very early results looks like a major NDP Majority  (2 NDP, 0 Other)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

CTV calls PC win 10 minutes in, lol.

Early polls from Woodbridge are BRUTAL for Del Duca, but only 3 polls in so let's not get too excited.

As of 9:14 PM EST - 47 PC, 18 NDP, 7 LIB, 1 GRN

[jaichind]

[King of Kensington]

3 polls in Vaughan-Woodbridge and you can already see Del Duca is done.

[trebor204]

CBC calls for PC Majority, 19 minutes after the polls close. Back in 2018, CBC called Majority about 20 minutes after the polls close

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Majority

[VPH]

PCs are running way ahead of their 2018 performance in a lot of the NDP's old working-class bastions. Quite close in a number of those Northern Ontario ridings.

[TwinGeeks99]

CBC calls for PC Majority, 19 minutes after the polls close. Back in 2018, CBC called Majority about 20 minutes after the polls close

They didn't even wait for them to hit 63 seats. That's how decisive this win is.

[jaichind]

It seems a PC rebel is ahead in Haldimand-Norfolk

[Pericles]

Is it accurate to say that the NDP are probably going to get more seats than the Liberals?

[OSR stands with Israel]

It seems like Federal and Ontario politics are a literal reverse from where they were during the Harper years