LET'S BET: Is Putin going to cut off gas supply to Germany?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

This news has been dominating the front-page headlines and the political talk shows for weeks. It's a threat many people dread the sheer prospect of (except PUTP, MAE and PJ, of course)

Russian gas firm Gazprom has, as scheduled, switched off its largest natural gas pipeline running to Germany for annual maintenance. The question is whether Russia will switch it back on. Officials in Germany and across the EU are warning utilities and companies to brace for a possible complete stop to gas flows even after the 10-day repair-period. They fear Russia will use maintenance as a pre-text. Moscow has already reduced flows into Germany in recent weeks, cutting back supply to 40 percent of normal levels while citing repair needs.
The Nord Stream stoppage also appears to be pushing the German government to undermine its own sanctions regime. At Berlin's request, Canada has now temporarily waived its export restrictions on a gas turbine that Siemens was repairing at its facilities in Montreal. Delivery and installation of the turbine, which Russia says is critical to restoring gas flows, could force the EU to partially lift its own sanctions on Russia. That, in turn, has drawn the ire of Ukraine.

Vonovia, Germany's Germany's biggest landlord with over 1 million tenants, has already reacted by announcing to turn down the heat for hundreds of thousands of residents. Several managements of tenement blocks have compiled schedules for the usage of hot water. Even CNN reported on this issue.

Even Canada is involved in this dispute between Germany and Russia.
Minister of Natural Resources Jonathan Wilkinson said over the weekend that it would return a repaired gas turbine back to Germany for use in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, while also expanding the sanctions against Russia’s energy sector.
Russia said last week that it would increase gas supplies to Europe if the turbine being serviced in Canada was returned. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also dismissed claims that Russia was using oil and gas to exert political pressure over Europe.

https://twitter.com/JonathanWNV/status/1545933060129951747?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

[Zinneke]

Greens deserve far more criticism for the nuclear phaseout after Fukushima.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Greens deserve far more criticism for the nuclear phaseout after Fukushima.

That was Merkel's sole responsibility.

[Sir Mohamed]

Greens deserve far more criticism for the nuclear phaseout after Fukushima.

Was for sure a mistake by Merkel, but what does nuclear have to do with gas?

Putin is probably cutting off most of Europe at some point. He still has hundred of billions in money reserves to fund his war crimes while the PRC and India line up to replace EU as customer. As embarrassing as it is...

His intention for sure is to weaken support for sanctions in European countries. May actually work because people will certainly care less about Ukraine when their economy is declining and homes aren't heated in winter time.

[NewYorkExpress]

Yes, but he's not going to do it in the middle of the summer.

He'll wait until late fall or early winter when the impact hits harder.

[SnowLabrador]

Yes, but he's not going to do it in the middle of the summer.

He'll wait until late fall or early winter when the impact hits harder.

This. Also, I accidentally voted that I'm from Germany, which I am not.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Greens deserve far more criticism for the nuclear phaseout after Fukushima.

A huge expansion of nuclear energy would be the start to true energy independence in the West.

[Amanda Huggenkiss]

Yes, but he's not going to do it in the middle of the summer.

He'll wait until late fall or early winter when the impact hits harder.

Germany fills its gas reserves in the summer months because gas usage is lower during that time. People don't need to heat their homes. If Putin turns off the gas in winter, the situation will not be that bad. If he turns it off now, it will have a bigger impact.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Yes, but he's not going to do it in the middle of the summer.

He'll wait until late fall or early winter when the impact hits harder.

Germany fills its gas reserves in the summer months because gas usage is lower during that time. People don't need to heat their homes. If Putin turns off the gas in winter, the situation will not be that bad. If he turns it off now, it will have a bigger impact.

You're absolutely right. You've analyzed Putin's trains of thought reasonably accurate. However much I hate admitting it, his psychological warfare is cleverly thought-out to perfection.
Putin had already cut back the gas flow; many gas tanks are therefore already near empty.
Economic experts predict that the additional margin of the heating costs could be increased by up to 2,500 € compared to the past (or should I say: bygone) years. Considering that we had already had the highest inflation rate (7.9%) in May since almost 50 years, an even further rise in inflation might threaten a sharp drop in prosperity and dramatic loss of living standards.

I'm aware that I oughtn't use the Tagesschau or SPIEGEL Insta profiles as sources, as MAE forbade me from using Instagram whatsoever, and PUTP told me to use OtHeR sOuRcEs™, but I love the informative graphs and tables they compile and provide, so please forgive me for posting the following two images:



The orange line indicates this year's filling levels of the gas tanks so far, whereas the gray line delineates the average filling level between 2011 and 2019 at the given date.



This graph depicts the energy of the gas flow, measured in gigawatt-hours per day, at the border crossing points Waidhaus (in Bavaria on the Czech border), Greifswald (in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern by the Baltic Sea), and Mellnow (in Brandenburg on the Polish border) since March.

This. Also, I accidentally voted that I'm from Germany, which I am not.

Too late! Now you'll have to enjoy ice-cold showers in the winter mornings! But considering you're name, it won't matter to you.

[Damocles]

Russia is an extraction-based economy highly dependent on gas sales to Europe in order to finance its state budget. They can threaten to shut off the gas, but they need the gas revenue in order to finance their war in Ukraine. It's European consumers who have the real power here, not Russia.

Azerbaijan has that pipeline going through Georgia and Turkey, and they're eager to sell more gas to Europe. So is Algeria through Spain and possibly through new pipeline projects directly to France.

By threatening to cut off the gas, Russia is basically signalling to Europe that it's an unreliable and unsafe gas partner, and that Europeans need to look elsewhere for their gas supply. They're only going to erode their own market share by doing this, and that's before you even consider the impact of economic sanctions.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes the only good solution to this is to make ourselves less dependent on Russia, in various ways.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Today, we'll get to know if Putin is going to let his manjuice flow...

[CumbrianLefty]

Today, we'll get to know if Putin is going to let his manjuice flow...

I would rather not have had that image planted in my head, thanks

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Before I forget: Gas is flowing again through Nord Stream 1. Only 30-40% of its full capacity, but still. Hallowed be thy name, patron Saint Gerd. 🙏🏻

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

The valves of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline were, as scheduled, battened down again on August 31 due to maintenance work.
However, Putin refused to unclose them, cutting off gas exports to Europe via Nord Stream indefinitely.
A litte spark of hope: The gas tanks are filled higher than expected.

[ingemann]

Russia is an extraction-based economy highly dependent on gas sales to Europe in order to finance its state budget. They can threaten to shut off the gas, but they need the gas revenue in order to finance their war in Ukraine. It's European consumers who have the real power here, not Russia.

Azerbaijan has that pipeline going through Georgia and Turkey, and they're eager to sell more gas to Europe. So is Algeria through Spain and possibly through new pipeline projects directly to France.

By threatening to cut off the gas, Russia is basically signalling to Europe that it's an unreliable and unsafe gas partner, and that Europeans need to look elsewhere for their gas supply. They're only going to erode their own market share by doing this, and that's before you even consider the impact of economic sanctions.

Yes, Putin is right now destroying the Russian economy. The truth is that Europe has relative mild winters, while cutting off the gas will be unpleasant for Europe, it be something Europe can make it through. At the same time, the rising gas prices already means a lot of people are insulating their houses in these months.