2009 State and Federal elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

It seems that the CDU/CSU advantage over the SPD is starting to disappear:

New Emnid poll

CDU/CSU: 32%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 15%
Left: 12%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

[minionofmidas]

Whoa.

Wake me if that pattern holds.

[Jens]

It seems that the CDU/CSU advantage over the SPD is starting to disappear:

New Emnid poll

CDU/CSU: 32%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 15%
Left: 12%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

I wonder what kind of coalition that could be formed after such a election result? Can't really call a CDU/SPD coalition for a Grand coalition if it only got 58 % behind it

[Tender Branson]

It seems that the CDU/CSU advantage over the SPD is starting to disappear:

New Emnid poll

CDU/CSU: 32%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 15%
Left: 12%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

I wonder what kind of coalition that could be formed after such a election result? Can't really call a CDU/SPD coalition for a Grand coalition if it only got 58 % behind it

It's possible.

Remember that the Austrian "Grand Coalition" got only 55% of the votes last October ...

[minionofmidas]

Remember that a Grand Coalition lost its parliamentary majority in the Netherlands in the 90s.

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa Federal Poll:

CDU/CSU: 33%
SPD: 24%
FDP: 17%
Greens: 11%
Left: 11%
Others: 4%

New Infratest-Dimap Baden-Württemberg Poll for the Federal Elections:

CDU: 35% (-4)
SPD: 24% (-6)
FDP: 17% (+5)
Greens: 15% (+4)
Left: 6% (+2)
Others: 3% (-1)

New Forsa Berlin Poll for the Federal Elections:

CDU: 24% (+2)
SPD: 23% (-11)
FDP: 17% (+9)
Left: 17% (+1)
Greens: 14% (nc)
Others: 5% (nc)

New Infratest-Dimap Hamburg Poll for the Federal Elections:

CDU: 33% (+4)
SPD: 33% (-6)
FDP: 12% (+3)
Greens: 11% (-4)
Left: 9% (+3)
Others: 2% (nc)

[Franzl]

FDP in Berlin, WTF?

[Tender Branson]

Whoa.

Wake me if that pattern holds.

It's holding:

New Federal Infratest-Dimap Poll:

CDU/CSU: 32%
SPD: 27%
FDP: 17%
Greens: 11%
Left: 10%
Others: 3%

Considering that CDU/CSU tends to overpoll in recent elections, it may already be a dead heat ...

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll:

CDU/CSU: 34%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 17%
Left: 11%
Greens: 9%
Others: 4%

Merkel (CDU) defeats Steinmeier (SPD) by 50-24 in a hypothetical direct vote for Chancellor.

New Emnid Poll:

CDU/CSU: 33%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 16%
Left: 11%
Greens: 10%
Others: 4%

[Tender Branson]

There's a new poll out showing the voting intentions of Germans of Turkish Origin in the upcoming federal elections, conducted by the Institute "Data4U" between March 3-8, 2009:

2999 people were surveyed, 896 of them are eligible to vote:

September Federal Elections:

SPD: 56%
Greens: 23%
CDU/CSU: 10%
The Left: 9%
FDP: 1%
Other parties: 1%

Hypothetical Direct Vote for German Chancellor:

Cem Özdemir (Greens): 25%
Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD): 20%
Angela Merkel (CDU): 8%
Gregor Gysi (The Left): 3%
Guido Westerwelle (FDP): 2%
Other candidates: 3%
Undecided: 39%

http://www.data4u-online.de/downloads/pressemitteilung-data4u-0309.pdf

[Franzl]

HPs, all of them

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll for the September Federal Elections (April 6-9):

CDU/CSU: 35%
SPD: 24%
FDP: 16%
Left: 11%
Greens: 10%
Others: 4%

Majority for CDU/CSU-FDP.

Merkel (CDU) also beats Steinmeier (SPD) by 51-22 in a direct vote for Chancellor, her biggest advantage so far.

http://www.stern.de/politik/deutschland/forsa/:stern-Umfrage-Steinmeier-Stimmungstief/660896.html

[Tender Branson]

New Saarland poll by Emnid for the August 30 state elections:

CDU: 38%
SPD: 23%
The Left: 22%
FDP: 8%
Greens: 5%
Others: 4%

New Berlin poll by Infratest-dimap for the June 7 EU Parliament elections:

SPD: 28% (+9)
CDU: 26% (nc)
Greens: 19% (-4)
The Left: 13% (-1)
FDP: 8% (+3)
Others: 6% (-6)

[Tender Branson]

On May 23, the German President will be elected by Electoral College, the Bundesversammlung.

The current Electoral College consists of all Members (612) of the German Parliament (Bundestag) and an equal number of members from the 16 states, apportioned by population.

Therefore 1.224 members will elect the next German President.

The party breakdown is as followed:

Parliament

CDU/CSU: 223
SPD: 222
FDP: 61
The Left: 53
Greens: 51
Independents: 2 (Henry Nitzsche & Gert Winkelmeier)

16 States

CDU/CSU: 274
SPD: 196
FDP: 46
Greens: 44
The Left: 37
Freie Wähler: 10 (Bavaria)
NPD: 3 (2 Saxony, 1 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)
DVU: 1 (Brandenburg)
SSW: 1 (Schleswig-Holstein)

Total

CDU/CSU: 497
SPD: 418
FDP: 107
Greens: 95
The Left: 90
Freie Wähler: 10 (Bavaria)
NPD: 3 (2 Saxony, 1 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern)
Independents: 2 (Henry Nitzsche & Gert Winkelmeier)
DVU: 1 (Brandenburg)
SSW: 1 (Schleswig-Holstein)

http://www.bundestag.de/parlament/wahlen/146/uebersicht.pdf

The candidates are:

Incumbent President Horst Köhler (CDU)
Gesine Schwan (SPD)
Peter Sodann (The Left)
Frank Rennicke (NPD/DVU)

The majority needed will be 613, CDU/CSU/FDP/Freie Wähler currently have 614 votes.

If Germans could directly elect their President, Horst Köhler would win in a landslide, according to a new poll by Infratest-dimap:

Köhler: 70%
Schwan: 14%
Sodann: 4%

http://www.infratest-dimap.de/umfragen-analysen/bundesweit/umfragen/aktuell/wahl-des-bundespraesidenten-koehler-vor-schwan-und-sodann/

[Tender Branson]

New Saxony poll for the August 30 state elections:

CDU: 43% (+2 compared with 2004)
SPD: 18% (+8)
Left: 17% (-7)
FDP: 9% (+3)
Greens: 6% (+1)
Nazis: 4% (-5)
Others: 3% (-2)

The current state government is CDU-SPD, but a CDU-FDP coalition would be possible according to this poll.

[Franzl]

We're having a Landrat election here in Darmstadt-Dieburg on Sunday (something like County Board Chair in the U.S., I'd say, even though it's not exactly the same thing.)

Not to be attention whoring....but I face a serious dilemma here

We've only got 2 candidates.....one from the SPD and one from the CDU, and I know that the CDU guy is pretty much an idiot....

and this might force me to cast my first ever SPD vote....that's truly frightening for me

I'm not the kind of person to stay home....though.....

[Hash]

We're having a Landrat election here in Darmstadt-Dieburg on Sunday (something like County Board Chair in the U.S., I'd say, even though it's not exactly the same thing.)

Not to be attention whoring....but I face a serious dilemma here

We've only got 2 candidates.....one from the SPD and one from the CDU, and I know that the CDU guy is pretty much an idiot....

and this might force me to cast my first ever SPD vote....that's truly frightening for me

I'm not the kind of person to stay home....though.....

Write Sarah Palin all over the ballot. That's what I did for student council elections (facing a similar, though worse, situation).

[MaxQue]

We're having a Landrat election here in Darmstadt-Dieburg on Sunday (something like County Board Chair in the U.S., I'd say, even though it's not exactly the same thing.)

Not to be attention whoring....but I face a serious dilemma here

We've only got 2 candidates.....one from the SPD and one from the CDU, and I know that the CDU guy is pretty much an idiot....

and this might force me to cast my first ever SPD vote....that's truly frightening for me

I'm not the kind of person to stay home....though.....

If that is a like a county board, vote for the candidate, not the party. Importants issues are not decided there. In the last municipal, I supported the right-wind candidate, because the left-wing one was awful.

This year, I will really vote and I will probably have the choice between a right-wing candidate and two ADQ members. I hope than a left-wing candidate will appear, but if that is the same person than last time, I will vote for the right-wing candidate or the sane ADQ member.

The other ADQ member will be Gilles Gagnon, the guy than we should copy Cuba's health system, than Jews are making wars and manipulate the economy for making more money and who said than gays are men with wowen's heads. I will never vote for him.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Saarland poll by Infratest-dimap for the August 30 state elections:

CDU: 36% (-12)
SPD: 27%  (-4)
The Left: 18% (+16)
FDP: 9% (+4)
Greens: 7% (+1)
Others: 3% (-5)

[Tender Branson]

New Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll for the May 23 Presidential Elections:

Köhler (CDU): 76%
Schwan (SPD): 9%
Sodann (Left): 3%

Also, the GE poll:

CDU/CSU: 37%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 14%
Left: 10%
Greens: 9%
Others: 4%

Chancellor poll:

Merkel (CDU): 53% (-4)
Steinmeier (SPD): 33% (+7)

[Franzl]

We're having a Landrat election here in Darmstadt-Dieburg on Sunday (something like County Board Chair in the U.S., I'd say, even though it's not exactly the same thing.)

Not to be attention whoring....but I face a serious dilemma here

We've only got 2 candidates.....one from the SPD and one from the CDU, and I know that the CDU guy is pretty much an idiot....

and this might force me to cast my first ever SPD vote....that's truly frightening for me

I'm not the kind of person to stay home....though.....

Well alright.....I voted for the SPD guy just a couple of minutes ago......now please forgive me while I take a shower.....


On a side note, the state of Berlin is voting in a referendum today about whether to allow religion as a regular school subject in public schools.

In most German states, it is possible to take Catholic or Protestant religion....or take a class known as "ethics"....one of them is almost always mandatory.

In Berlin, however, "ethics" is mandatory, and religion class is not allowed as a substitute, and may only be taken voluntarily, but doesn't count for anything.


It is likely that the referendum to allow religion in Berlin will fail....either by getting less than 50% of votes cast.....or even more likely by failing to get 25% of eligible voters, as required by Berlin.

[Tender Branson]

We're having a Landrat election here in Darmstadt-Dieburg on Sunday (something like County Board Chair in the U.S., I'd say, even though it's not exactly the same thing.)

Not to be attention whoring....but I face a serious dilemma here

We've only got 2 candidates.....one from the SPD and one from the CDU, and I know that the CDU guy is pretty much an idiot....

and this might force me to cast my first ever SPD vote....that's truly frightening for me

I'm not the kind of person to stay home....though.....

Well alright.....I voted for the SPD guy just a couple of minutes ago......now please forgive me while I take a shower.....


On a side note, the state of Berlin is voting in a referendum today about whether to allow religion as a regular school subject in public schools.

In most German states, it is possible to take Catholic or Protestant religion....or take a class known as "ethics"....one of them is almost always mandatory.

In Berlin, however, "ethics" is mandatory, and religion class is not allowed as a substitute, and may only be taken voluntarily, but doesn't count for anything.


It is likely that the referendum to allow religion in Berlin will fail....either by getting less than 50% of votes cast.....or even more likely by failing to get 25% of eligible voters, as required by Berlin.

Interesting.

Does the "Yes"-side need to get at least 25% of all eligible voters or is a general turnout of 25% needed ?

[Franzl]

We're having a Landrat election here in Darmstadt-Dieburg on Sunday (something like County Board Chair in the U.S., I'd say, even though it's not exactly the same thing.)

Not to be attention whoring....but I face a serious dilemma here

We've only got 2 candidates.....one from the SPD and one from the CDU, and I know that the CDU guy is pretty much an idiot....

and this might force me to cast my first ever SPD vote....that's truly frightening for me

I'm not the kind of person to stay home....though.....

Well alright.....I voted for the SPD guy just a couple of minutes ago......now please forgive me while I take a shower.....


On a side note, the state of Berlin is voting in a referendum today about whether to allow religion as a regular school subject in public schools.

In most German states, it is possible to take Catholic or Protestant religion....or take a class known as "ethics"....one of them is almost always mandatory.

In Berlin, however, "ethics" is mandatory, and religion class is not allowed as a substitute, and may only be taken voluntarily, but doesn't count for anything.


It is likely that the referendum to allow religion in Berlin will fail....either by getting less than 50% of votes cast.....or even more likely by failing to get 25% of eligible voters, as required by Berlin.

Interesting.

Does the "Yes"-side need to get at least 25% of all eligible voters or is a general turnout of 25% needed ?

I believe it's 25% of all eligible voters. Think I read that in Focus.

[Tender Branson]

We're having a Landrat election here in Darmstadt-Dieburg on Sunday (something like County Board Chair in the U.S., I'd say, even though it's not exactly the same thing.)

Not to be attention whoring....but I face a serious dilemma here

We've only got 2 candidates.....one from the SPD and one from the CDU, and I know that the CDU guy is pretty much an idiot....

and this might force me to cast my first ever SPD vote....that's truly frightening for me

I'm not the kind of person to stay home....though.....

Well alright.....I voted for the SPD guy just a couple of minutes ago......now please forgive me while I take a shower.....


On a side note, the state of Berlin is voting in a referendum today about whether to allow religion as a regular school subject in public schools.

In most German states, it is possible to take Catholic or Protestant religion....or take a class known as "ethics"....one of them is almost always mandatory.

In Berlin, however, "ethics" is mandatory, and religion class is not allowed as a substitute, and may only be taken voluntarily, but doesn't count for anything.


It is likely that the referendum to allow religion in Berlin will fail....either by getting less than 50% of votes cast.....or even more likely by failing to get 25% of eligible voters, as required by Berlin.

Interesting.

Does the "Yes"-side need to get at least 25% of all eligible voters or is a general turnout of 25% needed ?

I believe it's 25% of all eligible voters. Think I read that in Focus.

So, if it splits 50-50, about 50% of all eligible Berliners would have to vote. That's rather high.

If 40% vote, the Yes-side needs to win with 63% ... and so on - to pass.

[Franzl]

We're having a Landrat election here in Darmstadt-Dieburg on Sunday (something like County Board Chair in the U.S., I'd say, even though it's not exactly the same thing.)

Not to be attention whoring....but I face a serious dilemma here

We've only got 2 candidates.....one from the SPD and one from the CDU, and I know that the CDU guy is pretty much an idiot....

and this might force me to cast my first ever SPD vote....that's truly frightening for me

I'm not the kind of person to stay home....though.....

Well alright.....I voted for the SPD guy just a couple of minutes ago......now please forgive me while I take a shower.....


On a side note, the state of Berlin is voting in a referendum today about whether to allow religion as a regular school subject in public schools.

In most German states, it is possible to take Catholic or Protestant religion....or take a class known as "ethics"....one of them is almost always mandatory.

In Berlin, however, "ethics" is mandatory, and religion class is not allowed as a substitute, and may only be taken voluntarily, but doesn't count for anything.


It is likely that the referendum to allow religion in Berlin will fail....either by getting less than 50% of votes cast.....or even more likely by failing to get 25% of eligible voters, as required by Berlin.

Interesting.

Does the "Yes"-side need to get at least 25% of all eligible voters or is a general turnout of 25% needed ?

I believe it's 25% of all eligible voters. Think I read that in Focus.

So, if it splits 50-50, about 50% of all eligible Berliners would have to vote. That's rather high.

If 40% vote, the Yes-side needs to win with 63% ... and so on - to pass.

Exactly.

Actually, the press has specuated that Wowereit set this date on purpose to get low turnout, as opposed to doing the referendum on the same day as the EU elections.