How high is the chance the new govt breaks apart in the coming weeks or months and Netanyahu returns to power? I'm not that confident coalition of 8 parties from accross the spectrum can govern with a single vote majority. I would assume Bibi stands ready once that happens.
Keep in mind that Joint List is not in the government but obviously would not be in a Bibi government either. Given that, Likud would need support from its traditional partners plus Yamina and Ra'am. Given that Bennett is PM atm and I sincerely doubt that the Religious Zionists would be chill working in a government with Arabs, I think the only real way for Likud to return to power is new elections.