MO-SEN 2018: The Megathread

[Antonio the Sixth]

McCaskill comes out against the $12 Billion farm/tariff bailout, while Hawley backs it.

McCaskill Statement


Hawley Statement (Tweet)

So let me get this straight... if you're a Red State Democrat, the way to convince T***p voters to vote for you you is to confirm a SCOTUS nominee but not to support actual economic aid to those voters?

[JG]

McCaskill comes out against the $12 Billion farm/tariff bailout, while Hawley backs it.

McCaskill Statement


Hawley Statement (Tweet)

So let me get this straight... if you're a Red State Democrat, the way to convince T***p voters to vote for you you is to confirm a SCOTUS nominee but not to support actual economic aid to those voters?

Wrong thread. McCaskill voted against Gorsuch and will probably vote against Kavanaugh. And she opposes aid to fix a self-inflicted wounds. Haven't most farmers associations come out against the 12 billions $ aid?

[Pandaguineapig]

Race is not a toss up. Courtland Sykes will likely be the nominee

Why do you think that?

Hawley has run a completely milquetoast, feeble campaign, Greitens was still popular with the GOP base who may feel Hawley betrayed him, and Sykes is exactly the type of personality that appeals to GOP primary voters. The complete dearth of polling for the primary as well means we have no idea how the race actually looks. Sykes probably won't atcually win but I expect him to do way better than anyone expects

No lol (this is the type of thinking that led many red avatars to think Blankenship was going to win the primary walking away), the only primary opponent to Hawley with any support is Austin Petersen and even he is a 10% chance to win at best

[Canis]

Always knew Hawley was a socialist.

[windjammer]

McCaskill comes out against the $12 Billion farm/tariff bailout, while Hawley backs it.

McCaskill Statement


Hawley Statement (Tweet)

So let me get this straight... if you're a Red State Democrat, the way to convince T***p voters to vote for you you is to confirm a SCOTUS nominee but not to support actual economic aid to those voters?

No,
Her point is to abolish the Trump tariff instead of passing stimulus needed because of the Trump tariffs.

[BudgieForce]

Race is not a toss up. Courtland Sykes will likely be the nominee

Why do you think that?

Hawley has run a completely milquetoast, feeble campaign, Greitens was still popular with the GOP base who may feel Hawley betrayed him, and Sykes is exactly the type of personality that appeals to GOP primary voters. The complete dearth of polling for the primary as well means we have no idea how the race actually looks. Sykes probably won't atcually win but I expect him to do way better than anyone expects

No lol (this is the type of thinking that led many red avatars to think Blankenship was going to win the primary walking away), the only primary opponent to Hawley with any support is Austin Petersen and even he is a 10% chance to win at best

Petersen seems to have a huge twitter followings, and by huge, I mean every post mentioning the MO race is spammed by the same people who post a dubious poll with Petersen up by like 20 points.

[Antonio the Sixth]

McCaskill comes out against the $12 Billion farm/tariff bailout, while Hawley backs it.

McCaskill Statement


Hawley Statement (Tweet)

So let me get this straight... if you're a Red State Democrat, the way to convince T***p voters to vote for you you is to confirm a SCOTUS nominee but not to support actual economic aid to those voters?

Wrong thread. McCaskill voted against Gorsuch and will probably vote against Kavanaugh. And she opposes aid to fix a self-inflicted wounds. Haven't most farmers associations come out against the 12 billions $ aid?

Oh, fair enough. I'm not saying she should vote for the aid to farmers, just that sometimes Red State dem strategies baffle me a bit. You'd think that there'd be more likely to vote for something that has tangible benefits for one of their constituencies (even if it's misguided as policy) than something as abstract as a SCOTUS nomination.

[KingSweden]

Race is not a toss up. Courtland Sykes will likely be the nominee

Why do you think that?

Hawley has run a completely milquetoast, feeble campaign, Greitens was still popular with the GOP base who may feel Hawley betrayed him, and Sykes is exactly the type of personality that appeals to GOP primary voters. The complete dearth of polling for the primary as well means we have no idea how the race actually looks. Sykes probably won't atcually win but I expect him to do way better than anyone expects

No lol (this is the type of thinking that led many red avatars to think Blankenship was going to win the primary walking away), the only primary opponent to Hawley with any support is Austin Petersen and even he is a 10% chance to win at best

Petersen seems to have a huge twitter followings, and by huge, I mean every post mentioning the MO race is spammed by the same people who post a dubious poll with Petersen up by like 20 points.

Almost certainly bots

[Former Kentuckian]

McCaskill comes out against the $12 Billion farm/tariff bailout, while Hawley backs it.

McCaskill Statement


Hawley Statement (Tweet)

So let me get this straight... if you're a Red State Democrat, the way to convince T***p voters to vote for you you is to confirm a SCOTUS nominee but not to support actual economic aid to those voters?

No,
Her point is to abolish the Trump tariff instead of passing stimulus needed because of the Trump tariffs.

Bingo

[jamestroll]

Just get rid of the f****** tariffs. Simple

[Progressive Pessimist]

Just get rid of the f****** tariffs. Simple

[Ebsy]

Well the primary is Tuesday. I've sort of been wondering if Hawley might actually lose. I don't think there is actually that much enthusiasm for him among Republican primary voters, and I have seen a lot of signs touting other candidates.

[Zaybay]

Well the primary is Tuesday. I've sort of been wondering if Hawley might actually lose. I don't think there is actually that much enthusiasm for him among Republican primary voters, and I have seen a lot of signs touting other candidates.

It would be hilarious if he loses, that would ensure a D hold on MO.

[IceSpear]

Well the primary is Tuesday. I've sort of been wondering if Hawley might actually lose. I don't think there is actually that much enthusiasm for him among Republican primary voters, and I have seen a lot of signs touting other candidates.

Whatever anti-Hawley vote there is is going to be split between the large pool of other candidates, so I highly doubt it.

[Politician]

If Austin Petersen wins the Republican nomination, the race becomes Likely D, and close to Safe.

[HomestarSB9]

I think that the Republicans will be damaged by the Greitens scandal, regardless of whom the nominee is, Democrats are already making gains in the State House, albeit small ones, but still you can see the effect that the scandal is having.

Another factor that I think will hurt the Republicans is party unity. McCaskill will win her nomination no problem, but the Republicans a primary that will be competitive. Lack of party unity is one of the reasons Morrisey will lose in West Virginia.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

I think that the Republicans will be damaged by the Greitens scandal, regardless of whom the nominee is, Democrats are already making gains in the State House, albeit small ones, but still you can see the effect that the scandal is having.

Another factor that I think will hurt the Republicans is party unity. McCaskill will win her nomination no problem, but the Republicans a primary that will be competitive. Lack of party unity is one of the reasons Morrisey will lose in West Virginia.

[TheSaint250]

Race is not a toss up. Courtland Sykes will likely be the nominee

Why do you think that?

Hawley has run a completely milquetoast, feeble campaign, Greitens was still popular with the GOP base who may feel Hawley betrayed him, and Sykes is exactly the type of personality that appeals to GOP primary voters. The complete dearth of polling for the primary as well means we have no idea how the race actually looks. Sykes probably won't atcually win but I expect him to do way better than anyone expects

[IceSpear]

Race is not a toss up. Courtland Sykes will likely be the nominee

Why do you think that?

Hawley has run a completely milquetoast, feeble campaign, Greitens was still popular with the GOP base who may feel Hawley betrayed him, and Sykes is exactly the type of personality that appeals to GOP primary voters. The complete dearth of polling for the primary as well means we have no idea how the race actually looks. Sykes probably won't atcually win but I expect him to do way better than anyone expects

Well, that was certainly a low energy prediction, lol.

[TheSaint250]

Race is not a toss up. Courtland Sykes will likely be the nominee

Why do you think that?

Hawley has run a completely milquetoast, feeble campaign, Greitens was still popular with the GOP base who may feel Hawley betrayed him, and Sykes is exactly the type of personality that appeals to GOP primary voters. The complete dearth of polling for the primary as well means we have no idea how the race actually looks. Sykes probably won't atcually win but I expect him to do way better than anyone expects

Well, that was certainly a low energy prediction, lol.

Honestly, it surprised me how badly every other candidate performed. Everyone but Hawley received less than 10% of the vote. Even Hawley underperformed for being the only big name in the race.

[IceSpear]

Considering all the bad press Hawley's been getting for his lazy campaign, it doesn't surprise me he massively underperformed.

[TheSaint250]

Considering all the bad press Hawley's been getting for his lazy campaign, it doesn't surprise me he massively underperformed.

Yeah, I guess you're right there. I would've just expected "underperforming" here to be at least over 60%, though.

[ajwiopjawefoiwefnwn]

Considering all the bad press Hawley's been getting for his lazy campaign, it doesn't surprise me he massively underperformed.

Yeah, I guess you're right there. I would've just expected "underperforming" here to be at least over 60%, though.

[BudgieForce]

So apparently all of Petersen's supporters were on Twitter.

[jamestroll]

Petersen was never going to beat Hawley, and even though his campaign really hasn’t been all that impressive, I still think this is the second most vulnerable Senate seat for Democrats (after IN). Tossup.

Cort Vanostran is the nominee for MO-02 and Dem primary vote has well exceed GOP vote there.

and Yes I agree.. McCaskill could lose