How many CDs has Biden won?

[Calthrina950]

Biden carried TX-24 by 5.4%.

OK now thats just sad that Valenzuela couldn't win

It seems like literally every non-incumbent Dem underperformed Biden by 4-6 points. Very interesting.

As I noted elsewhere today, it seems like many voters wanted to get Trump out, but didn't feel comfortable giving Biden a Democratic trifecta, or even an expanded House majority.

[Calthrina950]

Trump carried NM-02 by 12%.

With that kind of margin, it was impossible for Torres-Small to win reelection. She ran ahead of Biden, but still lost by 8%.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1327722713784479749

This shows that Dems didn't do as bad in the House as people are saying.  They just over performed massively in 2018 and lost some of the low hanging fruit to Republicans.  Incumbency advantage is becoming less and less important. 

If this is true, why didn't the Democrats flip seats such as IN-05, MO-02, or the districts in Texas, including TX-24 (which Biden won and which O'Rourke had won in 2018) and TX-23? And the Democratic collapse in South Florida sticks out as a sore thumb on this map. This is to say nothing of PA-01, where Fitzpatrick won handily. Democrats had come into this election hoping to expand their majority, and now Republicans may only be about 4-10 seats away from gaining it back in 2022.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1327722713784479749

This shows that Dems didn't do as bad in the House as people are saying.  They just over performed massively in 2018 and lost some of the low hanging fruit to Republicans.  Incumbency advantage is becoming less and less important. 

If this is true, why didn't the Democrats flip seats such as IN-05, MO-02, or the districts in Texas, including TX-24 (which Biden won and which O'Rourke had won in 2018) and TX-23? And the Democratic collapse in South Florida sticks out as a sore thumb on this map. This is to say nothing of PA-01, where Fitzpatrick won handily. Democrats had come into this election hoping to expand their majority, and now Republicans may only be about 4-10 seats away from gaining it back in 2022.

Key part of your response.  Deal with it.

What? Yes, the Democrats kept their majority, but it will be a very narrow one indeed. Pelosi, for example, cannot afford more than a handful of defections to win reelection as Speaker in January, and the divide between progressives and moderates in the Democratic caucus could hamper the Party's legislative agenda, even more so then it is already with the Senate still in Republican hands. And Democratic Representatives such as Slotkin, Spanberger, and Lamb have expressed their concerns about the Party's messaging and outreach, and these concerns should certainly be taken into consideration. It would be foolish for us to think that the Democratic majority is guaranteed to survive the midterms.

[Calthrina950]

Biden carried MI-05 by 4%.

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327715755572432896

This seat was drawn as a Dem sink, with the fair redistricting maps, Kildee is done for in 2022, especially given he barely outperformed Biden

Its amazing how many sinks in the Midwest have failed or nearly failed. MI-05, WI-03, ILL-14, etc.

The speed of the urban-rural realignment over the past decade, particularly within the last five years, has been astounding. I cringed somewhat at seeing the vast, encroaching ocean of >70% or >60% Republican rural counties that have now popped up throughout the Midwest, and elsewhere across the country. Yes, "land doesn't vote, people do" but these kinds of sharply polarized geographic voting patterns don't bode well for our country's political stability.

[Calthrina950]

Biden carried MI-05 by 4%.

https://twitter.com/im_sorry_wtf/status/1327715755572432896

This seat was drawn as a Dem sink, with the fair redistricting maps, Kildee is done for in 2022, especially given he barely outperformed Biden

Its amazing how many sinks in the Midwest have failed or nearly failed. MI-05, WI-03, ILL-14, etc.

The speed of the urban-rural realignment over the past decade, particularly within the last five years, has been astounding. I cringed somewhat at seeing the vast, encroaching ocean of >70% or >60% Republican rural counties that have now popped up throughout the Midwest, and elsewhere across the country. Yes, "land doesn't vote, people do" but these kinds of sharply polarized geographic voting patterns don't bode well for our country's political stability.

I mean I wouldn't really call MI05 rural

That's correct, but it doesn't change the thrust of my observation.

[Calthrina950]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

According to ElectionMapsCo's map, Trump won OH-01, which is Steve Chabot's district. So I think it's safe to assume that Biden only won the four Democratic-held seats.

[Calthrina950]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

According to ElectionMapsCo's map, Trump won OH-01, which is Steve Chabot's district. So I think it's safe to assume that Biden only won the four Democratic-held seats.

OH-13 would be interesting to know, Biden probably won it by less than 5

I wouldn't be surprised if the margin was that close, given that Trump won Mahoning County this time. I read somewhere that Tim Ryan won reelection by about 7%, and he almost certainly ran ahead of Biden by a few percentage points. At any rate, I think it's safe to assume that Ryan is a goner in 2022, especially with redistricting imminent. And even with the current map, as it is now, I think he would be a goner then.

[Calthrina950]

Right now, between confirmed flips and eyeballing results, I have the following districts as Trump-Biden:
AZ-01
GA-06
GA-07
IL-14
MI-11
MN-02
NE-02
NV-03
NH-01
NJ-05
NJ-11
NY-18
PA-17
TX-24
VA-02
VA-07

The only Clinton-Trump district I for sure know of is FL-26. What other districts flipped in both directions?

Some potential flips:

Clinton - Trump:
TX-23

Trump - Biden:
IA-1
NJ-3
TX-3

Re-elected Abby Finkenauer agrees.

I think I saw that all Iowa districts voted for Trump (IA-3 was actually the closest and was decided by 0.1%) and that TX-3 did as well.

Yeah, Trump won all four districts in Iowa again. TX-24 was the only Trump-Biden district in Texas, as Biden lost TX-02, TX-03, TX-10, TX-21 and TX-22 by around 1-2 points each. Not sure about the margins in TX-06, TX-25 and TX-31.

NJ-03 is possible, since Burlington and Ocean both swung about 5 points left. Though I think Trump probably won NJ-02.

How about Ohio? Did Biden flip any districts or did he only win the usual four?

According to ElectionMapsCo's map, Trump won OH-01, which is Steve Chabot's district. So I think it's safe to assume that Biden only won the four Democratic-held seats.

OH-13 would be interesting to know, Biden probably won it by less than 5

I wouldn't be surprised if the margin was that close, given that Trump won Mahoning County this time. I read somewhere that Tim Ryan won reelection by about 7%, and he almost certainly ran ahead of Biden by a few percentage points. At any rate, I think it's safe to assume that Ryan is a goner in 2022, especially with redistricting imminent. And even with the current map, as it is now, I think he would be a goner then.

Yeah I assume his presidential campaign was him desperately looking for a new job come redistricting.

That seems to be a pretty good observation, with hindsight now provided. Now as for our home state of Colorado, I am curious to know what percentage Biden got in Jason Crow's district. No districts changed hands compared to 2016, as Trump probably won Boebert's district by mid to high single digits. Biden probably got in the upper 50s in Perlmutter's district, broke 60% in Neguse's district, and received over 70% in DeGette's district, while Trump probably got ~60% in Buck's district and in the upper 50s in Lamborn's district.

[Calthrina950]

OK, it seems Trump did win TX-23, but by only 2%. Biden won the Bexar portion by 4.4%, Trump won it by 3 in 2016 IIRC.

https://twitter.com/OryxMaps/status/1328564452199895040

Hillary won TX-23. Hurd, Katko and Fitz were the only Clinton district Republicans after 2018.

It's wild that TX-23 is now a Romney->Clinton->Trump district.

This also helps to explain why Gonzales held the seat with relative ease against Ortiz-Jones. She was not going to win if Biden also lost the district-as he did. So that means Texas has one Trump-Biden district and one Clinton-Trump district.

[Calthrina950]

Utah:

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1331397731752038410

A similar situation to NM-02. Trump's 9% margin in UT-04 proved to be too much for McAdams to overcome, although he came close due to the quality of his opponent. But then again, Trump won ME-02 by 7% and Golden was able to survive.

[Calthrina950]

Washington:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1331721584596422659

No districts flipped in Washington this year, as Biden appears to have outperformed Clinton mainly through building up his margins in WA-08 and the other Democratic-held seats. That seems to be the trend in many solidly Democratic states-Biden building upon Clinton's margins through winning third-party and new voters.

[Calthrina950]

Washington:

https://twitter.com/SenhorRaposa/status/1331721584596422659

I'm actually kinda surprised WA-3 was that close.

And of course JHB outran Trump by 10 points. Now that I think about it, which GOP House incumbents DIDN’T run ahead of Trump? Jim Hagedorn is the only one I know of.

Apparently Richard Hudson (NC-08) ran behind Trump as well.

Hudson's opponent was Pat Timmons-Goodson, who was the first black woman to be appointed to the North Carolina Supreme Court. I remember seeing a CBS This Morning report, either on the day of or the day before the election, in which she was interviewed. It was a report highlighting female and minority candidates-Young Kim was also featured. She was a strong candidate, from what I gathered, but couldn't overcome the environment, an indication of how candidate quality has become more and more submerged by overall political trends.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1332408409493221378

Ryan is one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in 2022, assuming that his district isn't completely dismembered in redistricting.

[Calthrina950]

Per this Google sheet, both Trump and Biden won 9/18 CDs in Pennsylvania.

Brackets indicate winning margins:
Districts carried by Trump: 8 (+4), 9 (+30), 10 (+3), 11 (+23), 12 (+36), 13 (+44), 14 (+27), 15 (+45) and 16 (+19)
Districts carried by Biden: 1 (+6), 2 (+41), 3 (+83), 4 (+24), 5 (+31), 6 (+15), 7 (+5), 17 (+3) and 18 (+30)

Biden gained PA-17 from Hillary, which she lost by 2.55% in 2016.

This helps to explain why Conor Lamb-who underperformed Biden if I'm remembering correctly-was able to win reelection.

[Calthrina950]

Per this Google sheet, both Trump and Biden won 9/18 CDs in Pennsylvania.

Brackets indicate winning margins:
Districts carried by Trump: 8 (+4), 9 (+30), 10 (+3), 11 (+23), 12 (+36), 13 (+44), 14 (+27), 15 (+45) and 16 (+19)
Districts carried by Biden: 1 (+6), 2 (+41), 3 (+83), 4 (+24), 5 (+31), 6 (+15), 7 (+5), 17 (+3) and 18 (+30)

Biden gained PA-17 from Hillary, which she lost by 2.55% in 2016.

This helps to explain why Conor Lamb-who underperformed Biden if I'm remembering correctly-was able to win reelection.

I'm honestly surprised by Lamb, he went from the Democratic wonder boy who won a Trump +20 SWPA district to this. That district was as Trumpy as it gets and no Democrat had any business winning it, special election or not. This doesn't bode well for his chances of winning statewide office. I don't know if he suffered some kind of carpetbagging penalty for moving from his old district to the new PA-17 or if he's lost the touch he originally had and is now a generic Democrat.

Maybe it's just harder for these red-district Democrats when they're in the House majority since then they have to actually vote on the liberal (and unpopular in their district) stuff the Democrats put forward rather than just opposing the unpopular stuff the Republicans put forward when they were in the majority.

I'm not sure either, and Lamb is a protégé of Biden's. But I think it is obvious that Lamb will be a target for Republicans at the congressional level in 2022, and I certainly don't think he's the strongest candidate Democrats could run for Senate or for Governor. But we'll have to see how things develop.

[Calthrina950]

Per this Google sheet, both Trump and Biden won 9/18 CDs in Pennsylvania.

Brackets indicate winning margins:
Districts carried by Trump: 8 (+4), 9 (+30), 10 (+3), 11 (+23), 12 (+36), 13 (+44), 14 (+27), 15 (+45) and 16 (+19)
Districts carried by Biden: 1 (+6), 2 (+41), 3 (+83), 4 (+24), 5 (+31), 6 (+15), 7 (+5), 17 (+3) and 18 (+30)

Biden gained PA-17 from Hillary, which she lost by 2.55% in 2016.

This helps to explain why Conor Lamb-who underperformed Biden if I'm remembering correctly-was able to win reelection.

I'm honestly surprised by Lamb, he went from the Democratic wonder boy who won a Trump +20 SWPA district to this. That district was as Trumpy as it gets and no Democrat had any business winning it, special election or not. This doesn't bode well for his chances of winning statewide office. I don't know if he suffered some kind of carpetbagging penalty for moving from his old district to the new PA-17 or if he's lost the touch he originally had and is now a generic Democrat.

Maybe it's just harder for these red-district Democrats when they're in the House majority since then they have to actually vote on the liberal (and unpopular in their district) stuff the Democrats put forward rather than just opposing the unpopular stuff the Republicans put forward when they were in the majority.

I'm not sure either, and Lamb is a protégé of Biden's. But I think it is obvious that Lamb will be a target for Republicans at the congressional level in 2022, and I certainly don't think he's the strongest candidate Democrats could run for Senate or for Governor. But we'll have to see how things develop.

and nothing of value was lost

What do you mean? I'm assuming you've never been particularly impressed by Lamb? To be honest, I haven't either.

[Calthrina950]

The best Biden CDs were:

PA-3   91.3%
CA-13   88.9%
NY-13   88.1%
NY-15   86.4%
IL-7   86.3%

The worst Trump CDs were:

PA-3   8.1%
CA-13   9.0%
NY-13   11.2%
CA-12   11.9%
IL-7   12.1%

If you count DC and a CD, it would be first in both 92.1% - 5.4%.

The best Trump CDs were:

AL-4   81.2%
KY-5   80.2%
TX-13   79.2%
TX-11   79.1%
MO-8    77.3%

The worst Biden CDs were:

AL-4   17.8%
KY-5   18.6%
TX-13   19.4%
TX-11   19.7%
MO-8    21.4%

What's amazing about AL-04 is that it was in Democratic hands as late as 1996. That year, long-time Democratic incumbent Tom Bevill (who was in office for thirty years), declined to run for reelection, and was succeeded by Robert Aderholt, who still holds the seat now after 24 years. It went from being a classic Southern, Blue Dog Democratic district to now being the most Republican district in the country in just a quarter of a century.