Monmouth-IA: Ernst +3

[Brittain33]

Well, that's annoying. Welcome back, UTJE meme.

[Brittain33]

I guess the Senate is gonna come down to Northern Carolina and Maine

[Brittain33]

I'm a Democrat, I'm not happy to see this, but it seems weird to consider JE *strong* when she's the incumbent up +1 on LV, +3 RV.

[Brittain33]

Wow, who could have possibly predicted this?

Yes, it’s not Safe R, and yes, I doubt it gets much better than that for Ernst, but given how much attention/Democratic investment this race has received you’d think it’s a likely tipping-point race (which it... obviously isn’t).

I mean, the RCP average is literally Greenfield +0.3. So acting as if this is even Lean R is being ridiculous.

Point me to an Iowa race since 2012 where Democrats have done better than their polling. I’ll wait.

Axne tied her RCP average, and polled -16 in September.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ia/iowa_3rd_district_young_vs_axne-6379.html#polls

[Brittain33]

Wow, who could have possibly predicted this?

Yes, it’s not Safe R, and yes, I doubt it gets much better than that for Ernst, but given how much attention/Democratic investment this race has received you’d think it’s a likely tipping-point race (which it... obviously isn’t).

I mean, the RCP average is literally Greenfield +0.3. So acting as if this is even Lean R is being ridiculous.

Point me to an Iowa race since 2012 where Democrats have done better than their polling. I’ll wait.

Axne tied her RCP average, and polled -16 in September.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/ia/iowa_3rd_district_young_vs_axne-6379.html#polls

IA-GOV 2018 Polling off by 4%

IA-01 2018: Polling off by 5%

IA-02 2018:Polling off by 6%

IA Pres 2016: Polling off by 6.5%

IA Sen 2016:
Polling off by 2%

IA-03 2016:  Polling off by 10%

IA Gov 2016: Polling off by 5%

IA Sen 2014: Polling off by 6%



The only race where the Democrat was underestimated was IA-04 in 2018 and that was obviously a special case. The onus is on Democrats to prove that polls aren't wildly overestimating them yet again.

*shrug* you asked for a race, and I found one.