Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/RealignmentP/status/1453908728424636419?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Well it looks like one of my predictions will definitely be right.  This thread will get to 100 pages before Election Day.

If there's one thing Atlas loves, it's talking about one of the two Virginias.

[Matty]

What the hell?

TMAC tells hispanic voters to get busy procreating quickly

 https://twitter.com/LisaMarieBoothe/status/1453415918923563011?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

[Virginiá]

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1453878007911886849

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw, I stated before that I believe this race is a Tossup, I stand by that. But I still see McAuliffe as likelier to win, and by a margin of 4 points. Feels a bit high, but whatevs.
NonSwingVoter has worded it better than I could:

wanted to also re-post this link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html

There was some misinformation posted earlier about how all these early voters could be hyper engaged Republicans.  We know with near certainty this is not the case as people studying this know the profile of voters.  The early vote is largely in Dem precincts and by Dem voters.  In VA you do not officially register with a party but during primaries you select a ballot of one party or the other.  Therefore they can get a good idea of the partisan lean of voters who are voting early.  Dems have a huge lead.  They did this in 2020 as well and were spot on.  That's why when NOVA dumped early ballots at the end of the night the state went from a small Trump lead to a massive Biden lead.  The ballots were overwhelmingly Dem at almost the precise margins these same analysts predicted then.  

There's still only minimal reason to believe that the early vote in Northern Virginia won't be hugely helpful for Democrats, and that is a lot of votes banked in for McAuliffe. Youngkin has to do get very good turnout in the Election Day vote in the rest of Virginia for him to win. I am unsure what to expect here, but make no mistake, this is still McAuliffe-favored.

[Non Swing Voter]

Btw, I stated before that I believe this race is a Tossup, I stand by that. But I still see McAuliffe as likelier to win, and by a margin of 4 points. Feels a bit high, but whatevs.
NonSwingVoter has worded it better than I could:

wanted to also re-post this link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html

There was some misinformation posted earlier about how all these early voters could be hyper engaged Republicans.  We know with near certainty this is not the case as people studying this know the profile of voters.  The early vote is largely in Dem precincts and by Dem voters.  In VA you do not officially register with a party but during primaries you select a ballot of one party or the other.  Therefore they can get a good idea of the partisan lean of voters who are voting early.  Dems have a huge lead.  They did this in 2020 as well and were spot on.  That's why when NOVA dumped early ballots at the end of the night the state went from a small Trump lead to a massive Biden lead.  The ballots were overwhelmingly Dem at almost the precise margins these same analysts predicted then.  

There's still only minimal reason to believe that the early vote in Northern Virginia won't be hugely helpful for Democrats, and that is a lot of votes banked in for McAuliffe. Youngkin has to do get very good turnout in the Election Day vote in the rest of Virginia for him to win. I am unsure what to expect here, but make no mistake, this is still McAuliffe-favored.

The way I look at it when everything feels uncertain and different takes and data points are all over the place... the most likely outcome is that things revert to their natural course.  This is generally what happened in Iowa and Ohio in 2020.  And even in 2018 when dems made big gains, it was in the places you'd expect (suburbs, cities) and not rural areas or states (where the GOP flipped).  At its core, Virginia is a democratic state.  The voters are generally not in line with GOP policies and ranting about education isn't changing that.  For me, that's more a tell that the GOP knows it's screwed in the suburbs.

Early voting also means there aren't a lot of last minute surprises regarding who shows up.  The vote is being banked and therefore I think the most likely outcome is that counties vote as you'd expect them to.  I expect a few of the close ones like Chesterfield, Stafford, Virginia Beach, etc. might flip and some may even move in opposite directions.  But this isn't going to be enough to wildly swing the overall vote. 

[indietraveler]

https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1453878007911886849

At this point I'm surprised Fox or some conservative group isn't just purchasing billboards of this each election year.

[Chips]

I hope there's one thing we can collectively agree on.

This has been a very weird race. Everything about it from the candidates to the things going on on the ground right now have been a weird experience and a weird election to follow. That said, I think the general bizarreness of the election has made it more fun to follow at the same time.

[Calthrina950]

I hope there's one thing we can collectively agree on.

This has been a very weird race. Everything about it from the candidates to the things going on on the ground right now have been a weird experience and a weird election to follow. That said, I think the general bizarreness of the election has made it more fun to follow at the same time.

I'd agree, although when you think about it, this is basically a race between two generic white men who are both businessmen and who aren't the most controversial, in terms of their personality at least. I still believe McAuliffe is going to win, but this race is going to be closer than I initially expected for it to be.

[jamestroll]

For what it is worth, while canvassing in Vienna, VA, a few people did bring up fear of Tmac bringing back pandemic restrictions if Covid cases shoot up again.

Yes yes yes.. Vienna may be wealthy suburbia like most of you all live in.. but a lot of business owners live in Vienna and if you drive the streets of Vienna.. mom and pop and non chain eateries are everywhere.

Oddly.. I did not hear anything about the school board sexual assault but I think that throws Loudoun into single digit.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You should literally put your money, where your mouth is, if you really think, that Youngkin doesn't have "a realistic chance of winning". You can get then a decent amount of money without a realistic chance of losing them.





Personally, I think, 30% (1 of 3) is a bit too much. But anything between 15-25% (from 1 of 6 to 1 of 4) is a reasonable assumption, given the data (polls, fundraising, historical patterns, Biden's approval etc) we have.

With that said, McAuliffe winning by 10+ probably also has 15-25% chance to happen.

I am not into online gambling but betting on T-Mac is basically free money. 

Free money like betting that Hillary would win?

[OSR stands with Israel]

Btw, I stated before that I believe this race is a Tossup, I stand by that. But I still see McAuliffe as likelier to win, and by a margin of 4 points. Feels a bit high, but whatevs.
NonSwingVoter has worded it better than I could:

wanted to also re-post this link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html

There was some misinformation posted earlier about how all these early voters could be hyper engaged Republicans.  We know with near certainty this is not the case as people studying this know the profile of voters.  The early vote is largely in Dem precincts and by Dem voters.  In VA you do not officially register with a party but during primaries you select a ballot of one party or the other.  Therefore they can get a good idea of the partisan lean of voters who are voting early.  Dems have a huge lead.  They did this in 2020 as well and were spot on.  That's why when NOVA dumped early ballots at the end of the night the state went from a small Trump lead to a massive Biden lead.  The ballots were overwhelmingly Dem at almost the precise margins these same analysts predicted then.  

There's still only minimal reason to believe that the early vote in Northern Virginia won't be hugely helpful for Democrats, and that is a lot of votes banked in for McAuliffe. Youngkin has to do get very good turnout in the Election Day vote in the rest of Virginia for him to win. I am unsure what to expect here, but make no mistake, this is still McAuliffe-favored.

The way I look at it when everything feels uncertain and different takes and data points are all over the place... the most likely outcome is that things revert to their natural course.  This is generally what happened in Iowa and Ohio in 2020.  And even in 2018 when dems made big gains, it was in the places you'd expect (suburbs, cities) and not rural areas or states (where the GOP flipped).  At its core, Virginia is a democratic state.  The voters are generally not in line with GOP policies and ranting about education isn't changing that.  For me, that's more a tell that the GOP knows it's screwed in the suburbs.

Early voting also means there aren't a lot of last minute surprises regarding who shows up.  The vote is being banked and therefore I think the most likely outcome is that counties vote as you'd expect them to.  I expect a few of the close ones like Chesterfield, Stafford, Virginia Beach, etc. might flip and some may even move in opposite directions.  But this isn't going to be enough to wildly swing the overall vote. 

Democrats won the Iowa House delegation vote in 2018

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The problems underneath the bad Approvals of Biden is open borders, he was told by Carville that if you get everyone vaccinated by July, Covid would be over and he can impliment his amnesty immigration reform. Just like Ludlow said we have contained this and Pence said Covid would be over by last May

He wants to impliment still his amnesty program in a Covid Environment and the Parliamentary didn't go for it, do his is allowing open borders

That's why Beto and Charlie Crist you don't hear much about them anymore, due to pen borders

[Pericles]

For what it is worth, while canvassing in Vienna, VA, a few people did bring up fear of Tmac bringing back pandemic restrictions if Covid cases shoot up again.

Yes yes yes.. Vienna may be wealthy suburbia like most of you all live in.. but a lot of business owners live in Vienna and if you drive the streets of Vienna.. mom and pop and non chain eateries are everywhere.

Oddly.. I did not hear anything about the school board sexual assault but I think that throws Loudoun into single digit.

Virginia's vaccination rate is pretty good, isn't it? Maybe he could do it by county so all those low vaccination Republican areas get what they fear while the Democratic vaccinated areas remain free.

[jamestroll]

For what it is worth, while canvassing in Vienna, VA, a few people did bring up fear of Tmac bringing back pandemic restrictions if Covid cases shoot up again.

Yes yes yes.. Vienna may be wealthy suburbia like most of you all live in.. but a lot of business owners live in Vienna and if you drive the streets of Vienna.. mom and pop and non chain eateries are everywhere.

Oddly.. I did not hear anything about the school board sexual assault but I think that throws Loudoun into single digit.

Virginia's vaccination rate is pretty good, isn't it? Maybe he could do it by county so all those low vaccination Republican areas get what they fear while the Democratic vaccinated areas remain free.

There will never be lockdown discussions in Virginia again.

[Green Line]

Wow, I had a feeling this would happen.  Hate to say it.

[Matty]

We now have multiple recent polls showing youngkin beating mcauliffe on the "who would handle education better?" question.

that is unheard of....a repub beating a dem on that issue.

[kwabbit]

Btw, I stated before that I believe this race is a Tossup, I stand by that. But I still see McAuliffe as likelier to win, and by a margin of 4 points. Feels a bit high, but whatevs.
NonSwingVoter has worded it better than I could:

wanted to also re-post this link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html

There was some misinformation posted earlier about how all these early voters could be hyper engaged Republicans.  We know with near certainty this is not the case as people studying this know the profile of voters.  The early vote is largely in Dem precincts and by Dem voters.  In VA you do not officially register with a party but during primaries you select a ballot of one party or the other.  Therefore they can get a good idea of the partisan lean of voters who are voting early.  Dems have a huge lead.  They did this in 2020 as well and were spot on.  That's why when NOVA dumped early ballots at the end of the night the state went from a small Trump lead to a massive Biden lead.  The ballots were overwhelmingly Dem at almost the precise margins these same analysts predicted then.  

There's still only minimal reason to believe that the early vote in Northern Virginia won't be hugely helpful for Democrats, and that is a lot of votes banked in for McAuliffe. Youngkin has to do get very good turnout in the Election Day vote in the rest of Virginia for him to win. I am unsure what to expect here, but make no mistake, this is still McAuliffe-favored.

The people who vote early are rarely swing voters, which is why in every past election extrapolating from early vote totals has been essentially meaningless. If McAuliffe has a decisive margin in NOVA it will happen regardless of banked early votes.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Btw, I stated before that I believe this race is a Tossup, I stand by that. But I still see McAuliffe as likelier to win, and by a margin of 4 points. Feels a bit high, but whatevs.
NonSwingVoter has worded it better than I could:

wanted to also re-post this link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html

There was some misinformation posted earlier about how all these early voters could be hyper engaged Republicans.  We know with near certainty this is not the case as people studying this know the profile of voters.  The early vote is largely in Dem precincts and by Dem voters.  In VA you do not officially register with a party but during primaries you select a ballot of one party or the other.  Therefore they can get a good idea of the partisan lean of voters who are voting early.  Dems have a huge lead.  They did this in 2020 as well and were spot on.  That's why when NOVA dumped early ballots at the end of the night the state went from a small Trump lead to a massive Biden lead.  The ballots were overwhelmingly Dem at almost the precise margins these same analysts predicted then. 

There's still only minimal reason to believe that the early vote in Northern Virginia won't be hugely helpful for Democrats, and that is a lot of votes banked in for McAuliffe. Youngkin has to do get very good turnout in the Election Day vote in the rest of Virginia for him to win. I am unsure what to expect here, but make no mistake, this is still McAuliffe-favored.

The people who vote early are rarely swing voters, which is why in every past election extrapolating from early vote totals has been essentially meaningless. If McAuliffe has a decisive margin in NOVA it will happen regardless of banked early votes.

A significant portion of the votes Youngkin needs to win (he needs to cut into the D base to some extent) are already locked in for McAuliffe, that's not at all good for Youngkin.
Remember this is a state Biden won by 10.
Youngkin needs very good turnout elsewhere to make up for that shortfall.

[Woody]

I still think McAwful will win. But seeing Democrats crapping their pants now is certainly a pleasure.

[kwabbit]

Btw, I stated before that I believe this race is a Tossup, I stand by that. But I still see McAuliffe as likelier to win, and by a margin of 4 points. Feels a bit high, but whatevs.
NonSwingVoter has worded it better than I could:

wanted to also re-post this link: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/27/democrats-take-lead-in-early-voting-in-virginias-highly-competitive-governors-race-.html

There was some misinformation posted earlier about how all these early voters could be hyper engaged Republicans.  We know with near certainty this is not the case as people studying this know the profile of voters.  The early vote is largely in Dem precincts and by Dem voters.  In VA you do not officially register with a party but during primaries you select a ballot of one party or the other.  Therefore they can get a good idea of the partisan lean of voters who are voting early.  Dems have a huge lead.  They did this in 2020 as well and were spot on.  That's why when NOVA dumped early ballots at the end of the night the state went from a small Trump lead to a massive Biden lead.  The ballots were overwhelmingly Dem at almost the precise margins these same analysts predicted then. 

There's still only minimal reason to believe that the early vote in Northern Virginia won't be hugely helpful for Democrats, and that is a lot of votes banked in for McAuliffe. Youngkin has to do get very good turnout in the Election Day vote in the rest of Virginia for him to win. I am unsure what to expect here, but make no mistake, this is still McAuliffe-favored.

The people who vote early are rarely swing voters, which is why in every past election extrapolating from early vote totals has been essentially meaningless. If McAuliffe has a decisive margin in NOVA it will happen regardless of banked early votes.

A significant portion of the votes Youngkin needs to win (he needs to cut into the D base to some extent) are already locked in for McAuliffe, that's not at all good for Youngkin.
Remember this is a state Biden won by 10.
Youngkin needs very good turnout elsewhere to make up for that shortfall.

What I meant is that few D voters that could’ve gone to Youngkin would’ve early voted. Youngkin was never going to win resist libs but he could win marginal Dem swingy voters, people who probably wouldn’t have emphatically votes for McAuliffe at first opportunity.

[wbrocks67]

I hope there's one thing we can collectively agree on.

This has been a very weird race. Everything about it from the candidates to the things going on on the ground right now have been a weird experience and a weird election to follow. That said, I think the general bizarreness of the election has made it more fun to follow at the same time.

I agree with this - and i also feel like we don't have a lot of actual stuff from the ground. Like anyone in here actually from Virginia want to comment on this race on what they're seeing?

You see a lot of stuff from national outlets, but what is it actually feeling like on the ground?

[It’s so Joever]

This is easily one of the most uncertain elections I have watched in terms of possible ranges.
I would not be surprised if TMac won by double digits, I would not be surprising if Youngkin won by over 5%.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453892526948114452

[roxas11]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453892526948114452

The big difference is when McDonnell had won big in 2010 unemployment in Virginia was at 7.3 percent

compared to the 3.8 percent that it is currently at right now