WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[GALeftist]

U N B E A T A B L E T I T A N M I K E G A L L A G H E R

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I expect Ron Kind to run, since he is basically guaranteed to lose if he runs for another house term.

There are going to be quite a few House refugees just shooting for statewide office, I suspect. Kind, Tim Ryan, maybe Mrvan and Cooper.

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https://twitter.com/MarkPocan/status/1335784970858729477

Hmm...

Tbf he might just be excited about replacing him.

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It appears that RoJo is blocking stimulus checks, or at least $1200 checks. I expect this will feature prominently in the campaign.

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Grab your popcorn, it’s ‘RonJon tells it like it is’ time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMdwlhMXm4I

Already looking forward to the swings to RonJon in #populist rural/small-town WI in 2022.

Am I missing something? I agree that the Democrats' fixation on Russia needs to stop but this seems like more of the same bloviating about muh Hunter Biden and muh irregularities, of which the former is meaningless and the latter is demonstrably fictitious.

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RonJon is one of the worst Senators, and that's a chamber with R*ck Sc*tt and Tom Cotton.

Don’t forget Marsha.

And our wonderful Senators

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I think RonJohn said something about how his running for reelection depended on Senate control, so I'm guessing this means he's probably in.

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Baldwin hardly ran as a Sanders/Warren clone in 2012/2018, though. Her shtick is "I can’t be labeled because I will always fight for you," and most of her ads focused on her work for rural/agricultural communities (e.g. drairy farmers). As unfortunate as it is (in a just society, these identity-centered appeals would backfire rather than help), it’s going to be much harder to pull that off with a black Milwaukee politician with a history of working on the advancement of people of color and perceived as more threatening than the calm middle-aged white woman who speaks from her kitchen table and/or is surrounded by 'rural' white males in half of her ads. A candidate having an 'ideology' identical to that of some other, successful candidate will not always ensure their own success (see: Jon Tester/Kathleen Williams — there was a certain cohort of Trump/Tester voters that Kathleen Williams would have never reached even if she had run the strongest campaign possible). As much as I wish that voters evaluated candidates based on ideological grounds and voting records, it often just isn’t the case, which is why the same line of (ostensibly ideological) attack like "Candidate xyz is too liberal for WI" or "Candidate xyz is out of touch with our values" may work against one candidate but fall flat against another.

Also, Leah Vukmir was an absolute disaster candidate (hers was by far one of the worst-run Republican campaigns for Senate that year). Baldwin wasn’t going to lose that year, but I do think her margin (and the ensuing perception of her popularity/crossover appeal) was somewhat inflated by that poor R campaign & the drop-off in R turnout.

Agree with almost all of this, but it's also worth noting that Tammy Baldwin *does* at least demonstrate that it's not the case that being a liberal candidate is a death sentence. I could be wrong, obviously, but I do not think a Warren endorsement will hurt or help. It will probably almost entirely come down to what types of campaigns the two candidates run as well as how good the year is for Republicans writ large.

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I honestly don’t think Johnson running again is a “gift” to Democrats. It’s not like “controversial” Republicans never win, and often they don’t do any worse than “moderate” Republicans.

Not to mention that the man has already won twice statewide.

[GALeftist]

Recently, it is revealed during Barnes' time as a state legislator in 2016, he introduced legislation to eliminate “monetary bail as a condition of release for a defendant charged with” a crime, no matter the severity of the crime. Yes, you read that correctly – a proposal to eliminate prosecutors’ ability to keep dangerous people in custody.

This bill died in committee but came after current Milwaukee County District Attorney John Chisholm supported similar views in his inaugural campaign. Those views came back to light last month after Chisholm set what he later called an “inappropriately low” bail amount ($1,000) in the case of Darrell Brooks, who allegedly killed six people in a Waukesha, WI Christmas parade rampage just weeks after a domestic violence arrest.

If the Barnes bill passed in 2016, Brooks, along with many other criminals, would have been freely walking the streets of Wisconsin for the past 5 years.

https://docs.legis.wisconsin.gov/2015/related/proposals/ab981

Cope, cash bail bad. If they're so dangerous why would we let them pay to get out of jail to commit more crimes to begin with? Either they need to be kept in jail for the safety of the community or they don't, how rich they are doesn't enter into it.

[GALeftist]

Dems need to do everything they can to stop Mandela Barnes from winning the primary.

What is the evidence that Lasry would be better than Barnes?

[GALeftist]

Dems need to do everything they can to stop Mandela Barnes from winning the primary.

What is the evidence that Lasry would be better than Barnes?

There is none. Barnes may not be a knockout candidate, but Lasry is infinitely worse.

This is my thinking too. People seem to be really down on Barnes, but it seems like Lasry is the only realistic alternative. I can see convincing arguments for Godlewski who has won statewide (albeit in 2018, and not particularly impressively) and Nelson who has a home base in a pretty red county, but neither seems in a position to win.

[GALeftist]

One thing I don't understand: Why do people keep insisting Mandela Barnes is a bad candidate for being progressive? Yes, he probably won't win, but that's more due to the national environment and Johnson's incumbency/perceived authenticity than anything else. Also, Baldwin's just as progressive and won by double digits in 2018.

I don't think he's an amazing candidate, but he's no worse than Laxalt or Budd, who blue avatars seem to think are the next coming of Christ.

To be fair, given this crop of Senate candidates, all you can really ask for is Generic R. They're probably near the top in terms of value above replacement.

[GALeftist]

Good lord what?? Maybe Lasry figures he's built infrastructure for 2028 or something?

Primary is lean --> safe Barnes obviously

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What even happened here lol, why did they run to begin with if they didn't intend on winning the nomination

[GALeftist]

What even happened here lol, why did they run to begin with if they didn't intend on winning the nomination

I think they were expecting things to be more even between them, rather than the runaway gap that developed with Barnes as the clear front-runner.

True but Lamb stayed in his race to the end and I was far more confident that Fetterman would win than I was that Barnes would (until Lasry dropped out that is).

[GALeftist]

Bernie is a Bernie Bro Socialist.

Get ready to lose dems!

Big if true

[GALeftist]

This race has flown criminally under the radar compared to Ohio. Inching towards Tilt R as the environment improves imo.

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No one cares about ssm. If he loses it will be because of ss statements and election denialism

If Roe/Dobbs are at all predictive I'd bet most people care far more about gay marriage than election denialism.

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People don't care about Dobbs either! They likely support some restrictions on abortion. What they can't relate to is somebody like Dixon pushing an extreme position about it, opposing abortion rights for 14 year old rape/incest victims . Or JD Vance stating that it is an "inconvenience". Republicans overreached is what happened.

What do you think Dobbs is

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thinks it’s running in AOC’s district

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madison,_Wisconsin

That being said, however, the Barnes campaign is so clearly uninterested in doing anything or taking any sort of stand on Wisconsin-specific issues as opposed to nationalized platitudes (this is Tammy Baldwin's saving grace!) and preaching to the choir about Johnson's unpopularity that I don't see a path for him anymore.

I don't quite agree. I quite like the ads I've seen and they've all been very locally focused. I think the fundamental issue is that Johnson is a battle-tested incumbent running in an even *at best* year in an even *at best* state.

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Barnes deserves an apology from this forum and the DSCC. He was basically triaged and nearly won, gave Johnson a bigger run for his money than Feingold either time. With some more attention and care he could have pulled it off.