Portugal's politics and elections

[crals]

PNR got 2% outside of Europe wow

Perhaps influenced by the far-right in Brazil, the USA and elsewhere... Extremely ironic.

[Mike88]

PSD asks for a recount of overseas ballots:

The PSD has sent to the Constitutional Court a request to recount the ballots of overseas voters and of turning the invalid ballots into abstentions. The party adds that in many cases, counting teams decided in different ways about the invalid ballots. The Court will decide until Monday, and all other political events are suspended. The government swearing in was also postponed until the issue is resolved.

[Mike88]

Leadership contests in PSD and CDS:

PSD has already two candidates to challenge Rio leadership: Luís Montenegro and Miguel Pinto Luz. The latter one, is the latest to enter in the race, but his chances of winning the leadership are close to zero, if not zero. He's not very known, although he will have the support of the PSD branch of Lisbon. Rui Rio is expected to announce his run for a second term, as all the media is predicting. But Rio himself is mocking the media for knowing his real intentions:

https://twitter.com/RuiRioPSD/status/1185529964508127233

A newspaper today has a series of statements about what I think and what I do. I didn't give any information about what is narrated to anyone. The text may serve to entertain those who read it, but its veracity is confined to the credibility of traditional inside sources.

In fact, Expresso newspaper reported this weekend that Rio will run and is considering to also be the PSD caucus leader until the party congress in February 2020. The newspaper adds that Rio wants to continue his hard line stance against Costa, like during the election campaign, in order to kill Montenegro chances.

In CDS, things are a lot worse. There are two candidates but they are just simple members of the party with no national notability. Cristas also announced she will leave parliament after the CDS elects a new leader.

[Mike88]

Another cool map on the 2019 election results: Left vs Right by parish.

https://twitter.com/thirty1ne/status/1185577072170811398
*Click on the tweet to see the full map.

A clear North/South divide.

Also, an interesting data from the election results is that in terms of seats, PS+PSD now control 81.3% of seats in Parliament, the highest share since 2005 when they controlled 85% of seats.

[VPH]

I've always found the conservatism of Leira fascinating, especially when posed against the left-wing bastion of Marinha Grande.

[Mike88]

Rui Rio announces his reelection bid as PSD leader under the slogan "Portugal in the Center".

https://twitter.com/Lusa_noticias/status/1186345966573621249

Rui Rio, PSD leader, has officially launch his reelection bid for the PSD leadership. In a very tough speech, he warned that the party would break up if he didn't ran and lashed out against many PSD members, like Miguel Relvas, for doing more harm to the party than good. He also thanked the almost 28% and 1,5 million voters that trusted the PSD and he announced that he will lead the PSD caucus until the party congress in February 2020.

[Mike88]

Costa has delivered to the President of the Republic his final list of secretaries of state, a total of 50, making Costa's second cabinet the biggest in democracy.

António Costa will lead the biggest government in Portuguese democracy: 19 ministers and 50 secretaries of state. A total of 70 people, including the PM, will take part in the 21st Constitutional government. Costa finalized the list, today, with the official communication of all cabinet members to the President of the Republic. The swearing in ceremony is expected to be held this week, maybe Friday, as the ceremonies are suspended until the Constitutional Courts rules on the PSD demand to recount the overseas ballots.

[Mike88]

The Constitutional Court rejects the PSD recount demand:

The Constitutional Court has rejected the PSD demand for a recount and inclusion of null ballots in the abstention in the overseas election results. The Court was quite harsh towards the PSD saying they didn't present any complaint during the counting and that a new recount of spoiled/null ballots "would be insusceptible to change the distribution of mandates.", concluding that the" hearing of the appeal lacks utility".

This means that the new Parliament will be sworn in probably on Friday and Costa's second cabinet will be sworn in Saturday morning.

[Mike88]

Tension between CDS and Enough (CH) because of seatings in Parliament:


Seat arrangements in Parliament for the 2019-2023 legislature. From Wikimedia Commons.

CDS and Enough (CH) are in a bitter exchange of words after the CDS refused to let André Ventura cross over their caucus of 5 to get to his seat. CDS is demanding some kind of solution, and for the moment, a possible solution is the creation of a new door only to serve Ventura. André Ventura has already reacted to this CDS move, saying that if CDS continues like this, in 4 years the problem will be the sole CDS MP crossing over the Enough caucus.

[Mike88]

Final and certified results of the 2019 general elections:



From here.

[Mike88]

The 14th Parliament will open tomorrow and parties are staring the nomination process:

MPs will be sworn in tomorrow as the 14th Parliament will start to work. Parties have also started the nominations for Speaker, deputy speakers and caucus leaders. The PS has renominated Ferro Rodrigues as Speaker candidate and he will be reelected with the votes of all center-left/leftwing parties, the vote against of CDS, IL and CH with PSD being a big doubt. The main four parties, PS, PSD, BE and PCP, have also nominated deputy speakers. For the 1st time is many years, CDS is forbidden to make nominations as it has a caucus of just 5.

Parties have also started to nominate caucus leaders: PS has nominated Ana Catarina Mendes, former deputy secretary of the PS; PSD will have Rui Rio as caucus leader until the party congress in February 2020; BE has renominated Pedro Filipe Soares as caucus leader; PCP has also renominated their caucus leader, João Oliveira from the CDS, Cecilia Meireles, MP from Porto, is running and will likely be elected; and PAN, which has a caucus for the 1st time, has nominated Inês Sousa Real, MP from Lisbon, as caucus leader. The rest of parties have just 2 or 1 MPs.

[Mike88]

With all settled, here's how polls and media presence compared with the final election results:

Poll average vs results (difference):

37.1% vs 36.4% PS (-0.7)
27.2% vs 27.8% PSD (+0.6)
  9.6% vs   9.5% BE (-0.1)
  6.8% vs   6.3% CDU (-0.5)
  4.7% vs   4.2% CDS (-0.5)
  4.1% vs   3.3% PAN (-0.8 )
  1.3% vs   1.3% CH (nc)
  0.9% vs   1.3% IL (+0.4)
  1.0% vs   1.1% Livre (+0.1)
  1.0% vs   0.8% Alliance (-0.2)
  6.3% vs   8.0% Others/Invalid (+1.7)

Poll averages from here, here and here.

Media presence vs results:

54.9% vs 36.4% PS
46.2% vs 27.8% PSD
23.2% vs   9.5% BE
27.4% vs   6.4% CDU
35.3% vs   4.2% CDS
13.0% vs   3.3% PAN
  5.2% vs   1.3% CH
  4.0% vs   1.3% IL
  1.9% vs   1.1% Livre

From here. Analysis of all media reports, interviews, party leaders speeches by all the main parties during the election campaign.

[CumbrianLefty]

Quite impressive polling accuracy there.

[Mike88]

Quite impressive polling accuracy there.

Polls in Portugal normally are very accurate and are spot on in hinting who has the momentum. But, it's interesting to see, also, how the campaign changed voting intentions, and this year, like in 2015, there was big swing in favour of the PSD, and against the PS:

Average of polls in early September vs election results:

40.5% vs 36.4% PS (-4.1)
21.8% vs 27.8% PSD (+6.0)
  9.6% vs   9.5% BE (-0.1)
  6.2% vs   6.3% CDU (+0.1)
  5.1% vs   4.2% CDS (-0.9)
  4.1% vs   3.3% PAN (-0.8 )
12.7% vs 12.5% Others/Invalid (-0.2)  

The gap between PS and PSD started to shrink after the debates and the Tancos scandal cemented the PS lead over the PSD at bellow 10%. PS stopped falling after the last weeend before election day and stationed at around 36-37%, what they really got. The PSD also stopped increasing after the last weekend before polling day and finished somewhere between 27-28%. During the campaign was curious to see that as CDS was falling, Enough and IL started increasing.  

[Mike88]

Parliament was sworn in today:

All 230 MPs were sworn in today. Ferro Rodrigues, current speaker, was reelected with 178 votes in favour, 44 blank and 8 against, meaning that probably some PSD MPs voted in favour of him. Some caucus leaders were elected, like the PS, while others will only do it in the next few days. Rui Rio, PSD leader, predicted that the current Parliament wouldn't last 4 years and has hinted that it's very unlikely that the PSD will support a PS budget. Nonetheless, social media is buzzing with another event in Parliament: the arrival of Joacine Katar-Moreira, Livre MP, and her adviser who was wearing a skirt:

https://twitter.com/dntwit/status/1187775843583422465

Her adviser, Rafael Esteves Martins, criticized those who are judging his appearance. Asked by reporters about the controversy in social media and the buzz in Parliament, he said "The choices about what I wear are mine and are within the law".

This Saturday morning, Costa's second cabinet will be sworn in at Ajuda Palace in Lisbon.

[Mike88]

António Costa second cabinet is now in office:

António Costa, and his 19 ministers and 50 secretaries of state, were sworn in, this morning, in the Ajuda Palace in Lisbon. One funny moment of the ceremony was when Costa signed his signature in the wrong place during the oath ceremony.

https://twitter.com/tvi/status/1188049528705949697

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa and António Costa spoke to the nation after the oath ceremony. Marcelo, in his speech, made a compliment to Costa's first cabinet as it exceeded expectations in the economic front, but also warned Costa that the next 4 years will not be like the last 4, as the demands of the people are much higher and the world is much more complex today than in 2015.

In his speech Costa, laid out a series of policies he wants to persue during the next 4 years. Costa acknowledges that his 2nd government will be more challenging  and will persue policies to cement the economic prosperity of the last 4 years. In terms of policies, Costa wants the minimum wage to be at 750 euros by 2023, eradicate poverty, close down coal centrals by 2023 and that he will persue policies to increase average wages, which are the lowest in Europe. He ended his speech by pledging loyalty to the President of the Republic and that his mandate will not be conditioned by the elections to be held in the next 4 years: Azores regionals in 2020; Presidential and local elections in 2021.

Finally, here's the overall map of Costa's second cabinet composition:

From Dinheiro Vivo newspaper. Here.

[Mike88]

The government approves the program to be sent and disccussed in Parliament next week:

António Costa's first cabinet meeting approved the government program to be discussed next week in Parliament. The media is saying the government is literally a copy of the PS manifesto for the 2019 general elections but with some slight changes to not upset letwing parties, particularly electoral reform. The main policies are the following:

- Maintenance of CRESAP, government borough to nominate public employees based on merit created by the PSD/CDS government;

- Discuss career reviews of public employees;

- Minimum wage increase to 750 euros by 2023;

- No electoral reform;

- Faster decarbonization of the economy by closing all coal centrals by 2023;

- Priority for an European Green Pact during the Portuguese EU presidency in 2021;

- Increase of minimum age to see bullfighting events;

- Creation of a "national promotional bank" to support the economy;

Opposition parties are criticizing the timing of the government program. Rui Rio, PSD leader, says the little time to read and discuss the program within all parties, just 2 days before its discussed in the floor of Parliament, is proof the the government wants to trick the Portuguese people and that it isn't a serious program.

[VPH]

I really don't like the minimum age for bullfights, but I guess I'll take it over the bans parties like BE and PAN advocate for...

[Mike88]

I really don't like the minimum age for bullfights, but I guess I'll take it over the bans parties like BE and PAN advocate for...

The PS had to give some "candy" to the leftwing parties. And, after all, the PS will never come out against bullfighting as a huge chunk of their electorate, in the upper Alentejo, depends on it. In my opinion, the most weird policy is the faster decarbonization of the economy, meaning closing of coal centers. Last week, it was reported that the government extended the compension given to coal producers, that is paid by all energy producers, even clean energy producers. Something doesn't add up here.

[Mike88]

With the 2019 elections over, here's how the current party standings compares with the past: (in % of MPs)


*CDU includes PCP and APU results

The next election is the regional election in Azores, schedule to October 2020. This election, currently, seems to be a PS hold as the PSD-Azores is in internal crisis. The party will have a leadership election on 14 December, and until now, no candidate has come forward. However, there's pressures for the mayor of Ponta Delgada, José Bolieiro, to run in an unity ticket to unify the party. The current PSD-Azores leader, Alexandre Gaudêncio, resigned from the leadership a few weeks ago due to the corruption investigations around him.

So, in 2020 there will be the Azores regional elections in October, and the PSD leadership elections in January.

[Republican Left]

With the 2019 elections over, here's how the current party standings compares with the past: (in % of MPs)


*CDU includes PCP and APU results

The next election is the regional election in Azores, schedule to October 2020. This election, currently, seems to be a PS hold as the PSD-Azores is in internal crisis. The party will have a leadership election on 14 December, and until now, no candidate has come forward. However, there's pressures for the mayor of Ponta Delgada, José Bolieiro, to run in an unity ticket to unify the party. The current PSD-Azores leader, Alexandre Gaudêncio, resigned from the leadership a few weeks ago due to the corruption investigations around him.

So, in 2020 there will be the Azores regional elections in October, and the PSD leadership elections in January.

What occurred with Centro Democratica e Social - Partito Popular,  what is necessary to rise again?

[Mike88]

What occurred with Centro Democratica e Social - Partito Popular,  what is necessary to rise again?

Well, almost everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong. First, voters seem to dislike CDS' very tough and negative campaign against Costa and the PS, as Cristas defined herself as the "de facto" leader of the opposition and had the hope of surpassing the PSD. Second, because Cristas was a member of the former PSD/CDS government, many voters, especially older voters, associated her with the deep cuts particularly in pensions, a very important part as a big chunk of CDS' voter base is older voters. Then, there is a kind of ideological battle within the CDS, as many party members aren't particularly happy with Cristas more moderate approach on social issues. And finally, the May teachers crisis and, maybe, tactical voting for PSD in some areas did the rest, not to mention that CDS also lost many voters to Enough and Liberal Initiative (IL).

Now, how can the party recover? Right now, thing looks bleaker than even on election night. No major party figure has come forward to ran for the leadership and the party is facing financial problems as the just 5 MPs means the party will receive less money, by state subventions, and they are now laying off staffers and closing headquarters across the country. CDS is also facing more competition on the right with the arrival of Enough and IL, as they target surgically CDS's liberal and social conservative voters. It's very unclear how the next 4 years will for CDS. The party is really in shambles and some pundits are predicting the extinction of CDS, however I wouldn't go that far, but CDS needs a mobilizing leader like Paulo Portas. For almost 20 years, CDS was him and his departure from the leadership emptied the party.

[Republican Left]

What occurred with Centro Democratica e Social - Partito Popular,  what is necessary to rise again?

Well, almost everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong. First, voters seem to dislike CDS' very tough and negative campaign against Costa and the PS, as Cristas defined herself as the "de facto" leader of the opposition and had the hope of surpassing the PSD. Second, because Cristas was a member of the former PSD/CDS government, many voters, especially older voters, associated her with the deep cuts particularly in pensions, a very important part as a big chunk of CDS' voter base is older voters. Then, there is a kind of ideological battle within the CDS, as many party members aren't particularly happy with Cristas more moderate approach on social issues. And finally, the May teachers crisis and, maybe, tactical voting for PSD in some areas did the rest, not to mention that CDS also lost many voters to Enough and Liberal Initiative (IL).

Now, how can the party recover? Right now, thing looks bleaker than even on election night. No major party figure has come forward to ran for the leadership and the party is facing financial problems as the just 5 MPs means the party will receive less money, by state subventions, and they are now laying off staffers and closing headquarters across the country. CDS is also facing more competition on the right with the arrival of Enough and IL, as they target surgically CDS's liberal and social conservative voters. It's very unclear how the next 4 years will for CDS. The party is really in shambles and some pundits are predicting the extinction of CDS, however I wouldn't go that far, but CDS needs a mobilizing leader like Paulo Portas. For almost 20 years, CDS was him and his departure from the leadership emptied the party.

Why don't the Centro Democratica e Social Partito Popular consolidate the conservative elements of Portugal and Partito Social Democrate consolidate the centrist and both can try to get a moderate to right leaning majority in Portugal like revive Alizana Popular and idealistically do what is best for Portugal?

Personally, what do you think Portugal needs especially to be a powerhouse from what I get, doesn't Iberia have its share of economic struggles?

[Mike88]

What occurred with Centro Democratica e Social - Partito Popular,  what is necessary to rise again?

Well, almost everything that could have gone wrong, went wrong. First, voters seem to dislike CDS' very tough and negative campaign against Costa and the PS, as Cristas defined herself as the "de facto" leader of the opposition and had the hope of surpassing the PSD. Second, because Cristas was a member of the former PSD/CDS government, many voters, especially older voters, associated her with the deep cuts particularly in pensions, a very important part as a big chunk of CDS' voter base is older voters. Then, there is a kind of ideological battle within the CDS, as many party members aren't particularly happy with Cristas more moderate approach on social issues. And finally, the May teachers crisis and, maybe, tactical voting for PSD in some areas did the rest, not to mention that CDS also lost many voters to Enough and Liberal Initiative (IL).

Now, how can the party recover? Right now, thing looks bleaker than even on election night. No major party figure has come forward to ran for the leadership and the party is facing financial problems as the just 5 MPs means the party will receive less money, by state subventions, and they are now laying off staffers and closing headquarters across the country. CDS is also facing more competition on the right with the arrival of Enough and IL, as they target surgically CDS's liberal and social conservative voters. It's very unclear how the next 4 years will for CDS. The party is really in shambles and some pundits are predicting the extinction of CDS, however I wouldn't go that far, but CDS needs a mobilizing leader like Paulo Portas. For almost 20 years, CDS was him and his departure from the leadership emptied the party.

Why don't the Centro Democratica e Social Partito Popular consolidate the conservative elements of Portugal and Partito Social Democrate consolidate the centrist and both can try to get a moderate to right leaning majority in Portugal like revive Alizana Popular and idealistically do what is best for Portugal?

Personally, what do you think Portugal needs especially to be a powerhouse from what I get, doesn't Iberia have its share of economic struggles?

That's basically what the PSD and CDS do. But, conservative voters in Portugal are very pragmatic and more often than not, they vote in the PSD rather than in CDS in order to try to beat the PS. In this election, the PSD was able to attract conservative/liberal voters that were inclined to abstain and Rio's campaign was quite good. While Cristas and CDS campaign was marked by failed opportunities and divisions in the party's strategy. The main risk for CDS, is that many of their voters may feel that it isn't worth voting CDS anymore and could split their vote between PSD and CH/IL. The last time CDS was in such a minor position was during the Cavacoism years, 1985-95, when the PSD was dominant force in the right, and also in the country. This time, the PSD is again the dominant force in the right and is also facing rising stars like CH and IL.

A permanent alliance between PSD and CDS is always talked about. The PSD would welcome it, the problem is CDS that feels that PSD always makes them inferior, and tensions always arise.

[VPH]

When Rui Rio appeared to really be under siege from elements within his own party, I thought CDS-PP had a real chance to revitalize and appeal to disaffected right-leaners in PSD. Rio managed to bring his party back together though.