2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/DavidPepper/status/1313501402963021826

talk to me when dems hit 40k in this county.

it's the first day lol

[n1240]

If I had to guess, the early vote modeling people are freaking about in Michigan and Wisconsin is crudely putting overall voter registration stats on the requested/returned ballots, most likely by age cohort or race. This would be very misleading. We know that Democratic voters are way more inclined to use absentee ballots than Republicans this year and vice versa. Older voters are still dominating in requests and returns, and their overall registration stats may be Republican-leaning, but we know for sure that those older voters are disproportionately Democratic because they've chosen to take absentee ballots.

Just look at this stat from tonight's Glengariff poll of Michigan:

Among those that have already cast their ballot, Joe Biden holds a 60-point lead of 74.6%-14.1%.

Even considering the margin of error and the possibility of Biden winning significant chunks of Independents and Republicans that number is simply implausible with NBC's model.

Yeah the TargetSmart modelling in states that don't aren't reporting returns by party registration is wildly contradictory with states that are reporting returns by party registration, and polling that indicates Dems do significantly better among absentee voters, definitely seems like it's running under assumptions that an old electorate cannot be overwhelming Dem, even though NC and FL have mail-in votes being 50%+ Dem by party reg while also being 50%+ 65+ in age.

[Devout Centrist]

If I had to guess, the early vote modeling people are freaking about in Michigan and Wisconsin is crudely putting overall voter registration stats on the requested/returned ballots, most likely by age cohort or race. This would be very misleading. We know that Democratic voters are way more inclined to use absentee ballots than Republicans this year and vice versa. Older voters are still dominating in requests and returns, and their overall registration stats may be Republican-leaning, but we know for sure that those older voters are disproportionately Democratic because they've chosen to take absentee ballots.

Just look at this stat from tonight's Glengariff poll of Michigan:

Among those that have already cast their ballot, Joe Biden holds a 60-point lead of 74.6%-14.1%.

Even considering the margin of error and the possibility of Biden winning significant chunks of Independents and Republicans that number is simply implausible with NBC's model.

This is solid analysis, thank you for this.

[Non Swing Voter]

I really son't see how so many people can claim that early turnout doesn't matter when Dems are banking such huge margins.  If early voting didn't matter then Republicans wouldn't be trying so hard to suppress it.

Also, up to 4.25 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee County returned 2,609 more ballots than Dane County in today's update. Milwaukee County catching up is good news.

[Non Swing Voter]

Just a few minutes later and it's up to 4.45 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Looks like the added numbers are mostly from Michigan.

[Dr. Arch]

Just a few minutes later and it's up to 4.45 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Looks like the added numbers are mostly from Michigan.

Wisconsin just added over 100,000 votes in the new update. Dane is now at over 50% requested and 50% returned.

[Gass3268]

Just a few minutes later and it's up to 4.45 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Looks like the added numbers are mostly from Michigan.

Wisconsin just added over 100,000 votes in the new update. Dane is now at over 50% requested and 50% returned.

Dane County finally passed Douglas County on the return %.

[Brittain33]

I really son't see how so many people can claim that early turnout doesn't matter when Dems are banking such huge margins.  If early voting didn't matter then Republicans wouldn't be trying so hard to suppress it.

Also, up to 4.25 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Oh it matters, it just isn’t a guarantee of any particular outcome.

[wbrocks67]

Just a few minutes later and it's up to 4.45 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Looks like the added numbers are mostly from Michigan.

Wisconsin just added over 100,000 votes in the new update. Dane is now at over 50% requested and 50% returned.

Judging by those insane Dane #s, that modeling for Wisconsin appears to be severely wrong.

[Splash]

Michigan is now coming in at a good clip. Added 200K votes in just a day, although some counties may still be catching up from the weekend.

Wayne County is over 80K and their keeping pace with the statewide average in terms of returned ballots, which is good. The problem for the GOP is that they no longer have that many counties where they can reliably squeeze out a ton of votes. They used to have Kent County, but that's swing territory now along with Macomb.

They pretty much only have Ottawa and Livingston and have to hope they can replicate Trump's insane margins in the areas north of Mt. Pleasant and the counties that border Indiana and Ohio. Even then, the presence of Marquette, Kalamazoo, and Jackson dilute the impact of Trump's support in these places.

Keep an eye on the differential between Oakland and Wayne County; I wouldn't be surprised if the former came very close to out-voting the latter at the end of the day.

[Dr. Arch]

Just a few minutes later and it's up to 4.45 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Looks like the added numbers are mostly from Michigan.

Wisconsin just added over 100,000 votes in the new update. Dane is now at over 50% requested and 50% returned.

Judging by those insane Dane #s, that modeling for Wisconsin appears to be severely wrong.

Not just Dane, but the entire state. Almost the entirety of returned votes are from urban areas or Democrat-friendly enclaves, even in the more conservative parts of the state.

[GP270watch]

 Democrats surpass 200k lead by party ID in Florida.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

[KaiserDave]

When can Wisconsin start counting ballots?

[Gass3268]

When can Wisconsin start counting ballots?

Day of, but other than maybe Milwaukee this shouldn't be a massive issues. Each municipality and town count their own ballots, so it's not like they have to go to a central county location. Also they typically only release results once they have 100% for a given precinct, municipality, or town.

[kph14]

Milwaukee County returned 2,609 more ballots than Dane County in today's update. Milwaukee County catching up is good news.

In the last few days, Milwaukee County added around 9,000-10,000 ballots per day

[wbrocks67]

Democrats surpass 200k lead by party ID in Florida.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Even given Dems propensity with mail in this time around, this seems significant, since historically, Dems take their time to return them in FL don't they?

[Dr. Arch]

Democrats surpass 200k lead by party ID in Florida.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Even given Dems propensity with mail in this time around, this seems significant, since historically, Dems take their time to return them in FL don't they?

Yep, Milwaukee is similar, but it seems that minority voters are fired up early.

[Holmes]

Democrats surpass 200k lead by party ID in Florida.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Even given Dems propensity with mail in this time around, this seems significant, since historically, Dems take their time to return them in FL don't they?

Yes, Dems are usually stronger with early voting in Florida. We'll see how things fall into place when early voting begins on the 19th.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1313582111790637058?s=20

So about 53% of the Dane County vote is coming from Madison. The suburbs and rurals are keeping up well.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I’m trying to temper my excitement with the caveat that it is still very early,  but fully 20% of the early votes cast in Georgia thus far are new voters who didn’t vote in 2018 or 2016. That’s over 50,000 voters, and is a very friendly group to Biden at least on paper. For reference, Abrams lost in 2018 by about that much.

I believe in a blue Georgia.

[Non Swing Voter]

Just a few minutes later and it's up to 4.45 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Looks like the added numbers are mostly from Michigan.

Wisconsin just added over 100,000 votes in the new update. Dane is now at over 50% requested and 50% returned.

Judging by those insane Dane #s, that modeling for Wisconsin appears to be severely wrong.

Not just Dane, but the entire state. Almost the entirety of returned votes are from urban areas or Democrat-friendly enclaves, even in the more conservative parts of the state.

How can you tell they are coming from urban areas?  Are you basing this off the county results or some more specific precinct level data within counties?

[Non Swing Voter]

Dems now at 220k lead in Florida based on update a few mins ago...

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

[Gass3268]

Just a few minutes later and it's up to 4.45 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Looks like the added numbers are mostly from Michigan.

Wisconsin just added over 100,000 votes in the new update. Dane is now at over 50% requested and 50% returned.

Judging by those insane Dane #s, that modeling for Wisconsin appears to be severely wrong.

Not just Dane, but the entire state. Almost the entirety of returned votes are from urban areas or Democrat-friendly enclaves, even in the more conservative parts of the state.

How can you tell they are coming from urban areas?  Are you basing this off the county results or some more specific precinct level data within counties?

We got town/municipality data last night. Go back a few pages and there is a map.

[GP270watch]

Democrats surpass 200k lead by party ID in Florida.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Even given Dems propensity with mail in this time around, this seems significant, since historically, Dems take their time to return them in FL don't they?

Yes, Dems are usually stronger with early voting in Florida. We'll see how things fall into place when early voting begins on the 19th.

Yes and no. I follow our elections and we usually lose the earliest voting because they start reporting VBM ballots first and Republicans had dominated those in return rate and overall. Then Democrats usually catch up and build a small lead when early voting starts and hope that lead holds on election day. These are also generalities based on party ID assuming that most will vote on party ID, it doesn't tell us how NPA(no party affiliation) are voting, NPA make up a huge share of the vote.

 Obviously in this 2020 pandemic year everything is flipped on its head, still the Democrats should see signs of hope and still organize so we get more early voting totals from the African American community and others who like to vote in person. We have to also run through the finish line and finish strongly on election day.

2016 VBM and Early Vote breakdown by party ID

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/697363/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2016-gen.pdf

2018 VBM and Early Vote Breakdownby party ID

https://dos.myflorida.com/media/700669/early-voting-and-vote-by-mail-report-2018-genpdf.pdf