🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[RGM2609]

Who would the CDU/CSU support for the Chancellorship if they get in third?

It is highly unlikely that CDU would accept to join a coalition without getting the Chancellorship

[RGM2609]

Noticed Scholz on best chancellor scores much higher than party.  Does leader in Germany play a big role thus lead indicator or do people vote more based on party and platform thus leadership numbers irrelevant?  And how likely is it there is a two party coalition as right now polls suggest all two party ones would not be sufficient?  Or could there be a minority government with two parties forming a coalition and then relying on others on issue by issue for support?

Germans do not really do minority government, so no, a coalition of three parties is most likely. But I would say that a two-party coalition is still possible if one of the Big 3 starts gaining momentum and surging. As to leadership, it is a combination, but it is important to people who their next Chancellor is going to be. Those polls are why many now think that the SPD still has a shot.

[RGM2609]

Is a third term of Laschet actually possible? One would think that after 20 years of CDU fatigue would finally settle in and they would be done for in 2025.

[RGM2609]

CDU must have reached its floor with these numbers in the low 20s, right?

[RGM2609]

So who is perceived to have won the debate? Baerbock?

[RGM2609]

So who is perceived to have won the debate? Baerbock?

There will be a quick poll out this evening. I guess Baerbock and Scholz about tied, with Laschet somewhat behind.

But no performance was really outstanding tbh.

I see. So nothing here to stop the SPD's rise (like a Baerbock comeback or something)

[RGM2609]

Ouch Laschet really needed to do better given how everything else is going. Maybe these are dumb questions, but what is the mood inside CDU with their grip on power slipping away and do they have any clear strategy to stop this disaster? Also is a Baerbock comeback even remotely possible? She seemed quite well liked when announced but has the spell completely go away given her scandals?

[RGM2609]

Especially given how Laschet got the nomination in the first place, it is fairly obvious that Soder will try to succeed him as candidate for the next election if or when Laschet loses. But will he get some of the blame for the defeat inside CDU circles given that he didn't help at all?

[RGM2609]

Was she purposefully sent to the worst district available by CDU people wanting to sideline her or did she choose it herself?

[RGM2609]

If the result is the same as the polls and -

1. FDP refuses to join the SPD
2. CDU refuses to join the SPD

Would the Greens rather join Jamaica or RRG?

[RGM2609]

So I know nothing about this:

What party is Merkel?

Whose going to win?

What kind of system do they have? (Similar to….?)

What’s the spectrum alignment of the leading parties? (LEFT to RIGHT)

1. CDU
2. Still a toss-up, lean SPD
3. Half FPTP, half PR with overhang seats to keep proportionality.
4. Linke-Greens-SPD-FDP-CDU-AFD

[RGM2609]

But is Linke more likely to have 5% than not? Because it could still signal the end for them if they fail