2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[wbrocks67]

The only people being fooled are those who think Biden will win any sunbelt swing state other than AZ.

Huh?

[wbrocks67]

God this thread is really painful sometimes. People freaking out about Reps outvoting Dems in early in person votes in NC and FL for a single day - how is this surprising? Dems have landed HUGE leads among mail voters, so of course they weren't gonna keep dominating in person early votes too.

Oh god, Dems lead goes from like 475K to 460K in FL - sound the alarm bells~~!!!!!!!!!!

[wbrocks67]

Meanwhile, California is pretty stunning. I feel like we are usually frustrated with Dems b/c they never send their ballots in fast enough and wait till the last minute. Not this year - Dems at 29% return rate while Reps only 19%.

[wbrocks67]

AZ seems like an under-looked at state too - Dems are still blowing Reps out of the water there.

[wbrocks67]

The Milwaukee Suburbs have woken up and are clearly taking advantage of in-person absentee voting. Milwaukee County has cast the most in-person votes in the first two days, but Waukesha County has bested Dane County the past two days in in person absentee and total absentee. Waukesha County will probably jump to #2 in terms of % of 2016 voted returned in a day or two. Dane County is still adding more votes via mail/dropbox absentees than any county but Milwaukee County and is at almost 55% of 2016 vote. Dane's return rate has been pretty consistently going up at 2-3% every day.

Ozaukee County and Washington County are also seeing double digit % increases due to the start of in-person absentee. Other Republican counties are coming in strong too including Calumet County, Sheboygan County, Walworth County, and Manitowoc County all have double digit % increases.

It's not all lost for Democrats, lots of their secondary counties (especially those with state universities) are seeing significant increases. This includes La Crosse County, Kenosha County, Rock County, Portage County, and Eau Claire County. This college factor is also evident in Grant and Pierce  counties. Who's not voting yet? Basically the Central and Western rural counties. The bottom five counties from worst to best are Clark, Buffalo, Trempealeau, Pepin, and Rusk.

I don't think anyone should really freak out about these results. Wisconsin is one of the best voter turnout states in the country, only behind the VBM states and Minnesota. Republicans and Republican areas were going to turnout.

Isn't Waukesha trending Dem? So how would that be bad for Biden?

[wbrocks67]

4,256,102 votes cast in FL so far

45.3% DEM
34.4% REP

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1319288522709233670

[wbrocks67]

Looks like PA there was a problem with some of the counties reporting. They seem to be coming in better/faster now, esp the suburbs.

Dems have now returned 51% of their ballots. Reps only 36%.

Dems @ 947K vs. Reps 263K.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319303007381704704

[wbrocks67]

Looks like PA there was a problem with some of the counties reporting. They seem to be coming in better/faster now, esp the suburbs.

Dems have now returned 51% of their ballots. Reps only 36%.

Dems @ 947K vs. Reps 263K.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1319303007381704704

Holy guacamole

I'm wondering if it's possible that Reps requested their mail in ballots but they're just going to try and vote on election day instead? It's just very lopsided right now and Reps don't seem very compelled to return their ballots at all currently.

[wbrocks67]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

If Biden triages Florida then he practically deserves to lose.

Literally no one is saying he is/will be doing that. What are you people talking about?

[wbrocks67]

Really ugly numbers in Florida. Let’s see if the Obama rally this weekend can turn things around but it may be time to consider redirecting resources to GA and TX.

Yes, for Republicans currently.

[wbrocks67]

What's up with some of these states that haven't updated recently? Like Minnesota. Is there going to be an incoming vote dump soon?

I believe MN only updates once a week, on Fridays I think

[wbrocks67]

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/IA.html

The IA return rates are pretty stunning, particularly Democrats.  82.5% returned already.

ALL polls said that Dems would almost exclusively vote by mail or early, while Rs would vote on election day.

NO SURPRISE.

Dems return rate is higher than Rs, and the fact that Dems have returned more shows that they are more enthused right now. Reps have a huge hill to climb in IA if these #s stay the same thru Election Day.

[wbrocks67]

In the most recent Navigator Poll it does say that only 19% of Biden voters will vote on election day, compared to 46% for Trump on election day.

That said 34% of 18-44 year olds are saying they will be voting on election day. That is the highest % of any age group. Also 27% of Black voters say they will be voting early, but in person. Are there still plans for Souls to the Polls this Sunday and next?

Source

Yeah, I was wondering the same. Souls to the Polls usually spikes the AA vote on weekends in LA, GA, NC, etc

[wbrocks67]

McDonald's website updated for FL.

Dems 1,926,055 (45.3%)
Reps 1,463,281 (34.4%)
Total 4,256,102

4.3 million votes cast and Dems hold a +463K lead.

[wbrocks67]

So it looks like Reps are increasing their lead in Early Vote in Person in FL, but Dems are increasing their massive lead in Mail Ins. And Mails In so far vastly outnumber EV in person, so...

[wbrocks67]

Also, again, those Georgia EV #s are absolutely insane.

[wbrocks67]

FLORIDA


4,705,612 votes cast (mail + in-person EV)

Democratic: 2,085,559 (44.3%)
Republican: 1,659,686 (35.3%)
NPA/Other: 960,367 (20.2%)

Dem lead decreases to 425,873

~537,167 ballots were processed today

I mean, yeah it's decreasing but not by that much each day.  Wasn't the highest Democratic lead like 470k? 

Exactly, I don't get the thinking of how "The GOP is surging!" when yes, they are outvoting in EV, but Dems are still seeing a massive lead-in in mail ins, and with nearly 5M votes in right now, Dems are still up +426K which is massive.

We've talked about how Dems really just need to break even with the GOP, so the GOP really has a long way to go to catch up 426K behind.

[wbrocks67]

Hawkfish has new data out of the swing states based on the EV - their analyzations show that so far, Dems are turning out not just more high propensity voters than Reps, but also more 'sporadic voters' (low propensity) and new registrants.

Also, they modeled:

"At a glance, the top-line Democratic margins also look huge in Arizona (16 percentage points), Michigan (24 points), North Carolina (14 points), Pennsylvania (46 points), and Wisconsin (22), according to the analysis from Hawkfish, which is funded by billionaire Michael Bloomberg, a Trump foe."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/23/early-voting-numbers-swing-states-431363

[wbrocks67]

NC 10/20, day 7 early in-person vote:

Dem 72941 (32.5%)
Rep 84588 (37.7%)
Una 67073 (29.9%)
Total 224602

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 101199 (42.5%)
Rep 78058 (32.8%)
Una 58850 (24.7%)
Total 238107

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 774036 (39.4%)
Rep 644586 (32.8%)
Una 543739 (27.7%0
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1125228 (41.9%)
Rep 784337 (29.2%)
Una 79473 (28.9%)
Total 2687217

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 554859 (45.5%)
Rep 366861 (30.0%)
Una 298019 (24.4%)

Another day of GOP slowly chipping away at Dem lead, a quicker rate than yesterday, but still very slow overall (350k Dem lead after Tuesday, 348k after Wednesday, 341k after Thursday). This is also the first day where 2016 daily total was higher than 2020 I believe (not sure why this is though, it's a pretty large spike between Oct 26 and Oct 27).

What did these totals look like on the last day of EV in 2016? I feel like it's more of a better comparison if we go off where say, the EV was in 2016 when there was ~2.7 million votes cast

[wbrocks67]

This weekend should be interesting. Want to see the effects of Souls to the Polls in places like GA, LA, NC, FL, etc.

[wbrocks67]

Can someone rational give a quick tl; dr on the current situation in Florida? Too many posts with too many pov's and too many tears

Turnout seems really important, especially when you understand why Clinton lost. Only 74% of Ds ended up turning out in FL ultimately, while 81% of Rs did.

Right now, Dems are at 40% turnout total, and Reps 32%. So Dems need to keep on turning out and at the very least hold steady in terms of turnout by ED.

[wbrocks67]

NC 10/20, day 7 early in-person vote:

Dem 72941 (32.5%)
Rep 84588 (37.7%)
Una 67073 (29.9%)
Total 224602

compared to day 7 in 2016

Dem 101199 (42.5%)
Rep 78058 (32.8%)
Una 58850 (24.7%)
Total 238107

Current Total (in-person only)

Dem 774036 (39.4%)
Rep 644586 (32.8%)
Una 543739 (27.7%0
Total 1737759

Current Total (cumulative absentee)

Dem 1125228 (41.9%)
Rep 784337 (29.2%)
Una 79473 (28.9%)
Total 2687217

Cumulative Total at same time 2016

Dem 554859 (45.5%)
Rep 366861 (30.0%)
Una 298019 (24.4%)

Another day of GOP slowly chipping away at Dem lead, a quicker rate than yesterday, but still very slow overall (350k Dem lead after Tuesday, 348k after Wednesday, 341k after Thursday). This is also the first day where 2016 daily total was higher than 2020 I believe (not sure why this is though, it's a pretty large spike between Oct 26 and Oct 27).

What did these totals look like on the last day of EV in 2016? I feel like it's more of a better comparison if we go off where say, the EV was in 2016 when there was ~2.7 million votes cast

Thought I might've posted in this thread but apparently not

Dem 1327487 (41.6%)
Rep 1023651 (32.1%)
Una 839455 (26.3%)
Total 3190593

Unless you're specifically asking for the single day voting for the last day of early in-person

Dem 114087 (37.8%)
Rep 99728 (33.1%)
Una 87921 (29.1%)
Total 301736

Gotcha. So this won't be an easy apples to apples comparison either, b/c you also had Independents going Trump +16 via the NC exit poll, so even if Dems have a lead about the same this year, Indies may hold the key.

[wbrocks67]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

[wbrocks67]

The California #s are truly insane.

Partisanship of first 5 million ballots returned
2016: Dem 46, Rep 32, Other 22 (Dem +14)
2018: Dem 45, Rep 31, Other 24 (Dem +14)
2020: Dem 56, Rep 21, Other 23 (Dem +35)

https://capitolweekly.net/ca120-a-historic-flood-of-over-5-million-mail-in-ballots/#disqus_thread

Also of note in places like CA-25, for instance: 30% of Dems have returned ballots already. Only 19% of Reps have.

https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/CampaignTools/views/2020GeneralBaseAVTrackerforVIZBOT/2020GeneralElectionTrackerVIZBOT?Geography%20Selection=Congressional%20District&Geography%20Selection%20Filter=CD%2025%20-%2025TH%20CONGRESSIONAL%20DISTRICT&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y

[wbrocks67]

considering that GOP will win  the ED very big, 426K is not enough for dems. 

FL is not like PA where most of the R vote is gonna come on Election Day. GOP is only running a few points behind their registration in FL.

Total Registration

D: 37%
R: 35.69%

EV votes by party reg:

D: 39.8
R: 32.6

So it is not some vast difference and there is going to be less ED vote for GOP than folks think.

Yep. It's just as possible that Reps are doing better with Early Vote in Person is b/c many of their Election Day voters are voting early now.

maybe but polls say otherwise.

D+ 418K now.

I would imagine deciding between early in person and election day is fluid right now. It's not something you have to wait for (i.e. if you request mail ballot), so your mind could change. Not something we can really hold voters to.