Dems Push for Marshall Senate Bid

[Adlai Stevenson]

"The Shailendra family is very well known in Democratic fund-raising circles, but the invitation to the luncheon they're sponsoring for U.S. Rep. Jim Marshall Monday makes it clear no checks will be requested," according to the Atlanta Journal-Consitution. Instead, "the purpose of the luncheon is to encourage Marshall to consider the 2008 U.S. Senate race against Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss."

Meanwhile, Roll Call reports that Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Rick Goddard was "on Capitol Hill on Wednesday meeting with Republican leaders as he weighs a challenge to Rep. Jim Marshall (D) next year." Goddard, whom the NRCC tried to recruit in 2004, "met privately with House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) as well as National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (Okla.) and addressed the GOP Conference at its Wednesday morning meeting."

http://politicalinsider.com/2007/05/dems_push_for_marshall_senate.html

[Keystone Phil]

Good. Go for it. In the meantime, we'll gladly take his winable House seat.

[Conan]

Good. Go for it. In the meantime, we'll gladly take his winable House seat.

You might as well take the house seat. It's bound to happen. This way he can run for Senate and not waste money on his republican district, especially in a presidential year. Also, we'd have a top tier candidate and could get 45%+, hopefully. Maybe even win, who knows.

[Keystone Phil]

Maybe even win, who knows.

Nah, that's ok.

[Mr.Phips]

If Marshall could win in 2002 and 2004 which were very bad Dem years, and in 2006 which was bad for Dems in Georgia and he was facing a popular former Congressman, he can probably win in 2008.

[bullmoose88]

If Marshall could win in 2002 and 2004 which were very bad Dem years, and in 2006 which was bad for Dems in Georgia and he was facing a popular former Congressman, he can probably win in 2008.

Now you sound overly optimistic...a Senate Race in Georgia, in a presidential year?

Not that I wouldn't mind the GOP having to realign out of the south.

[Mr.Phips]

If Marshall could win in 2002 and 2004 which were very bad Dem years, and in 2006 which was bad for Dems in Georgia and he was facing a popular former Congressman, he can probably win in 2008.

Now you sound overly optimistic...a Senate Race in Georgia, in a presidential year?

Not that I wouldn't mind the GOP having to realign out of the south.

I meant the House seat.  Nobody can beat Chambliss.

[bullmoose88]

If Marshall could win in 2002 and 2004 which were very bad Dem years, and in 2006 which was bad for Dems in Georgia and he was facing a popular former Congressman, he can probably win in 2008.

Now you sound overly optimistic...a Senate Race in Georgia, in a presidential year?

Not that I wouldn't mind the GOP having to realign out of the south.

I meant the House seat.  Nobody can beat Chambliss.

That house sit is winnable for a marshall style dem, at least for a few more cycles. GA has become a Republican bastion...its only a matter of time before these marginal districts get more Repub.

[SPC]

Go ahead. Throw away his house seat for an impossible bid for Senate.

[bullmoose88]

Go ahead. Throw away his house seat for an impossible bid for Senate.

Nothing is ever impossible...but it would seem to be a waste of resources.

[TheresNoMoney]

Marshall should keep his House seat. He's not going to win statewide against a Republican incumbent.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't think Marshall is stupid enough to try for this. He'll probably be reelected, but will at some point lose, his seat will eventually be overtaken by Atlanta suburbia which of course always attracts hardcore partisan GOP fascists. The only way I see him surviving for awhile is if after redistricting the GOP decides to carve a new Republican seat out of his district and more or less give him the old district back.

[Mr.Phips]

I don't think Marshall is stupid enough to try for this. He'll probably be reelected, but will at some point lose, his seat will eventually be overtaken by Atlanta suburbia which of course always attracts hardcore partisan GOP fascists. The only way I see him surviving for awhile is if after redistricting the GOP decides to carve a new Republican seat out of his district and more or less give him the old district back.

I agree.  He can probably keep his seat at least until the 2011 redistricting.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I really don't see how Marshall can win re-election in 2008 as it is - he barely survived in 2006, another strong GOP year in a Georgia that is becoming aggressively Republican.  In 2008, with the Republican Presidential nominee and Chambliss at the top of the ticket, I think the odds are stacked against him if the GOP can recruit Mac Collins again.  I doubt he could win against Chambliss either - Georgia is one state that is definitely trending Republican and I think the Democrats are only going to do worse there. 

[DownWithTheLeft]

This is similar to Lampson considering a bid, except at least Marshall has a shot at his house seat

[Mr.Phips]

I really don't see how Marshall can win re-election in 2008 as it is - he barely survived in 2006, another strong GOP year in a Georgia that is becoming aggressively Republican.  In 2008, with the Republican Presidential nominee and Chambliss at the top of the ticket, I think the odds are stacked against him if the GOP can recruit Mac Collins again.  I doubt he could win against Chambliss either - Georgia is one state that is definitely trending Republican and I think the Democrats are only going to do worse there. 

Marshall can certainly hold his House seat.  2006 was a bad year for Dems in Georgia and Republicans recruited the best challenger imaginable to beat him and they still could not.  If he could get elected in years like 2002 and 2004, he can survive in 2008.  By the way, I am almost certain that Collins wont run again.  He has raised no money and other Republicans are already looking at the race.  There would be no reason for Marshall to run for Senate because nobody is going to even come close to beating Chambliss.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I really don't see how Marshall can win re-election in 2008 as it is - he barely survived in 2006, another strong GOP year in a Georgia that is becoming aggressively Republican.  In 2008, with the Republican Presidential nominee and Chambliss at the top of the ticket, I think the odds are stacked against him if the GOP can recruit Mac Collins again.  I doubt he could win against Chambliss either - Georgia is one state that is definitely trending Republican and I think the Democrats are only going to do worse there. 

Marshall can certainly hold his House seat.  2006 was a bad year for Dems in Georgia and Republicans recruited the best challenger imaginable to beat him and they still could not.  If he could get elected in years like 2002 and 2004, he can survive in 2008.  By the way, I am almost certain that Collins wont run again.  He has raised no money and other Republicans are already looking at the race.  There would be no reason for Marshall to run for Senate because nobody is going to even come close to beating Chambliss.

I agree he should not run for the Senate.  Yet the House seat he held in 2002 and 2004 was more Democratic than it is now; his old GA-3 district voted 55%-44% for Bush in 2004, the current GA-8 he represents voted 61%-39% for Bush.  Marshall is going to be squeezed out sooner or later by those numbers of increased Republican voters and 2008 seems likely given the fact Chambliss and the GOP Presidential candidate will be running at the top of the ticket. 

[Mr.Phips]

I really don't see how Marshall can win re-election in 2008 as it is - he barely survived in 2006, another strong GOP year in a Georgia that is becoming aggressively Republican.  In 2008, with the Republican Presidential nominee and Chambliss at the top of the ticket, I think the odds are stacked against him if the GOP can recruit Mac Collins again.  I doubt he could win against Chambliss either - Georgia is one state that is definitely trending Republican and I think the Democrats are only going to do worse there. 

Marshall can certainly hold his House seat.  2006 was a bad year for Dems in Georgia and Republicans recruited the best challenger imaginable to beat him and they still could not.  If he could get elected in years like 2002 and 2004, he can survive in 2008.  By the way, I am almost certain that Collins wont run again.  He has raised no money and other Republicans are already looking at the race.  There would be no reason for Marshall to run for Senate because nobody is going to even come close to beating Chambliss.

I agree he should not run for the Senate.  Yet the House seat he held in 2002 and 2004 was more Democratic than it is now; his old GA-3 district voted 55%-44% for Bush in 2004, the current GA-8 he represents voted 61%-39% for Bush.  Marshall is going to be squeezed out sooner or later by those numbers of increased Republican voters and 2008 seems likely given the fact Chambliss and the GOP Presidential candidate will be running at the top of the ticket. 

The district did not change that much.  It got five points more Republican:  going from 56%-44% Bush to 61%-39% Bush.  That is not a huge change.  Also, I don't see any Republican getting the kind of numbers that Bush got in the South.  If Edwards is the nominee, Im pretty sure that he can get at least a respectable 43% in the district.  Also remember that Clinton won the district in its current form in both 1992 and 1996.

[HardRCafé]

By the way, I am almost certain that Collins wont run again.  He has raised no money and other Republicans are already looking at the race.

Ibid.  He got demolished in 2004, and he came up short in 2006.  He would be a tossup in 2008 if he got in, but there is no indication he wants to spend a fifth and sixth year as a perennial comeback kid.

[Galactic Overlord]

I would say that Marshall could win again. He'll just have the target always on his back because Republicans need his seat if they're to have a chance of regaining the House. 

I've read some griping about Collins on the net, that he didn't do enough with all the money raised. He probably isn't going to run again. The Dems ought not force Marshall into a chancy Senate race, they have plenty of targets already, and they wouldn't want to spread their resources too thinly.