Selzer/DMR/Bloomberg FINAL IOWA POLL: Trump +5, Clinton +3

[BlueSwan]

My guess:

Dems: Slim win to Clinton, probably in the 1-4% range.
One might believe that Sanders will underperform due to him having lots of young voters, but I think his ground operation will be fairly strong, keeping the results close, but probably not enough to overtake Clinton.

GOP: Very slim win to Cruz, probably in the 0-3% range.
Unlike Sanders, I don't think Trump has got the ground operation to pull off the win in a caucus state. His lead in the polls in sustantial and it might be enough to carry him over the finish line, but I believe that Cruz' ground operation is far better and likely enough too squeeze out a win. Will be very interesting to see how Trump reacts if that happens.

[BlueSwan]

I'm going to say that it won't be particularly narrow and Clinton will secure a good amount of delegates. It goes back to her having a better distribution of votes geographically, which is what this caucus is all about.

Sorry to be nitpicking, but I don't think this causus is about that at all. Infact, I think delegate allocation for Iowa is close to being irrelevant. The ENTIRE significance of the Iowa caucus is symbolic. I'm 100% positive that any candidate would rather win Iowa and receive ZERO of the delegates, than come in second and receive 100% of the delegates.