2024 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Roll Roons]

https://indypolitics.org/senator-banks/

Banks will apparently run for Senate if Braun goes for Governor as expected.

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Initial target list for Dems:
https://www.axios.com/2022/11/23/house-democrats-2024-districts-biden-republicans

AZ-01 (Schweikert)
AZ-06 (Ciscomani)
CA-27 (Garcia
CA-40 (Kim)
CA-41 (Calvert)
CA-45 (Steel)
IA-03 (Nunn)
MI-10 (James)
NE-02 (Bacon)
NJ-07 (Kean)
NY-01 (LaLota)
NY-03 (Santos)
NY-04 (D'Esposito)
NY-17 (Lawler)
NY-19 (Molinaro)
NY-22 (Williams)
OR-05 (Chavez-DeRemer)
PA-01 (Fitzpatrick). I needed a laugh
VA-02 (Kiggans)

[Roll Roons]

Fitzpatrick did win by less than 2020, huh.

He outran the top of the ticket by a lot more than he did in 2020. Mastriano lost that district by like 20 while Trump only lost it by 6.

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On the flipside, I feel like the initial Republican target list might look something like this:

AK-AL (Peltola)
CA-47 (Porter)
CO-08 (Caraveo)
CT-05 (Hayes)
FL-23 (Moskowitz)
IL-17 (Sorenson)
ME-02 (Golden)
MI-03 (Scholten)
MI-07 (Slotkin)
MI-08 (Kildee)
MN-02 (Craig)
NH-01 (Pappas)
NJ-03 (Kim)
NM-02 (Vasquez)
NY-18 (Ryan)
OH-09 (Kaptur)
OH-13 (Sykes)
OR-06 (Salinas)
PA-07 (Wild)
PA-08 (Cartwright)
PA-17 (DeLuzio)
RI-02 (Magaziner)
TX-34 (Gonzalez)
VA-07 (Spanberger)
WA-03 (Gluesenkamp Perez)
WA-08 (Schrier)

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https://twitter.com/ryanobles/status/1602339822256914432?cxt=HHwWgICwsYXl07wsAAA...

Good on him for not dragging out the vacancy.

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Cook's initial house ratings are out: https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

A handful of incumbents in both parties start at tossup, including four NY Republican freshmen and several Dems in NC and OH due to uncertainty over redistricting in those states.

One incumbent starts as an underdog. No points for guessing who that is.

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https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1628758577362894849?cxt=HHwWgoCwyf3SwZotAAAA

I think these are generally reasonable.

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The DCCC's target list seems to include two nonexistent congressmen:
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1642865707976392704

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https://twitter.com/CATargetBot/status/1642879668780171265

Air Force veteran and former J.P. Morgan investment banker Kellen Curry is the first primary challenger in NY-03. He does seem to have a very impressive background but I could see the Nassau GOP being skittish about a political newcomer.

Though at least there's evidence that he actually attended the Air Force Academy: https://goairforcefalcons.com/sports/track-and-field/roster/kellen-curry/5019

[Roll Roons]

What happens when a Republican actually wins a wealthy district:
https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1646859164335894530?cxt=HHwWhMCz1efr6NotAAA...

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Split Ticket's first Senate ratings:
https://split-ticket.org/2023/05/16/our-initial-2024-senate-ratings/?amp=1

Safe R: WV
Likely R: FL, TX
Lean R: OH
Tossup: AZ, MT
Lean D: MI, NV, WI
Likely D: PA

Everything else is safe for the incumbent party.

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I think it’s fair to say no incumbent Democratic Senators will lack for money.

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https://twitter.com/NikkiLaurenzo/status/1679986366200037376

Tough race, but he is an A+ recruit.

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https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1680254248771276800

With the caveat that there are still a number of members who haven't reported, battleground district House Republicans are off to a much faster start than their Democratic counterparts. I guess WinRed really did help to even the playing field in terms of small dollar fundraising.

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https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1681669011707142151

Though it should be noted that a lot of times, primary internals can be very unreliable.

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https://twitter.com/jacobkornbluh/status/1681829854566555651

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https://twitter.com/CATargetBot0001/status/1684012215064727552

Local State Rep. running in the highly competitive PA-07

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/29/steve-womack-arkansas-considers-retirement/

Rep. Steve Womack (AR-03) considering retirement. This district is Safe R in 2024, but is potentially worth watching as a sleeper further down the road.

[Roll Roons]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/29/steve-womack-arkansas-considers-retirement/

Rep. Steve Womack (AR-03) considering retirement. This district is Safe R in 2024, but is potentially worth watching as a sleeper further down the road.

Too bad   Womack always seemed like one of the saner folks in the Caucus and at least someone whose natural instincts were more inclined towards actually governing.  I mean, he’s still a House Republican, but you can work with folks like that.

Never mind:
https://twitter.com/rep_stevewomack/status/1685332770241773568

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https://twitter.com/ercovey/status/1686053589205004290

Aside from WV and PA, these are generally fair.

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It's official: https://twitter.com/dani__battaglia/status/1687094012904198144

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Interesting memo from the CLF: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2023/08/08/CLF_2023_Summer_Memo.pdf

It acknowledges that the path to the House majority for both parties runs through deep blue states. Given the large number of competitive seats in CA and NY, plus more in others like NJ, OR, WA, this is definitely true.

[Roll Roons]

Interesting memo from the CLF: https://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/editorialfiles/2023/08/08/CLF_2023_Summer_Memo.pdf

It acknowledges that the path to the House majority for both parties runs through deep blue states. Given the large number of competitive seats in CA and NY, plus more in others like NJ, OR, WA, this is definitely true.

Their section on PA (Wild and Cartwright) is just demonstrably false.

Neither of them are DOA but they are certainly not safe and Biden won't win PA by nearly as much as Shapiro did.

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https://twitter.com/mercuri4pa/status/1691437164414865410

State Rep. running in PA-17. Tough seat, but apparently he outran Oz by something like 15 points.

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Hmm: https://twitter.com/BecauseMiami/status/1695051876926959860