AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

Fwiw Oz actually has ads up on the air in Pennsylvania for the first time since the primary.

Those are still mostly CLF ads lol. Oz is still broke himself.

There's a fair bit of CLF, but I've seen several from Oz's actual campaign in the last like two or three days. Not sure how long he'll be able to stay on the air, but he does have some up.

I'll also say his ads don't seem especially compelling. Not garbage, but nothing anyone will remember either.

[wbrocks67]

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

Fwiw Oz actually has ads up on the air in Pennsylvania for the first time since the primary.

Those are still mostly CLF ads lol. Oz is still broke himself.

There's a fair bit of CLF, but I've seen several from Oz's actual campaign in the last like two or three days. Not sure how long he'll be able to stay on the air, but he does have some up.

I'll also say his ads don't seem especially compelling. Not garbage, but nothing anyone will remember either.

What type of combo of Shaprio/Fetterman/Oz ads have you noticed recently yourself?

From what I can tell, Shapiro has been consistent for the most part for a while. Fetterman seemed to be hitting the ads hard a few weeks ago but it feels like Oz/CLF have taken over the last week or two. I'm not a big cable watcher though so I'm inconsistent on that front.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Are republicans running any ads this year 😂

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

Fwiw Oz actually has ads up on the air in Pennsylvania for the first time since the primary.

Those are still mostly CLF ads lol. Oz is still broke himself.

There's a fair bit of CLF, but I've seen several from Oz's actual campaign in the last like two or three days. Not sure how long he'll be able to stay on the air, but he does have some up.

I'll also say his ads don't seem especially compelling. Not garbage, but nothing anyone will remember either.

What type of combo of Shaprio/Fetterman/Oz ads have you noticed recently yourself?

From what I can tell, Shapiro has been consistent for the most part for a while. Fetterman seemed to be hitting the ads hard a few weeks ago but it feels like Oz/CLF have taken over the last week or two. I'm not a big cable watcher though so I'm inconsistent on that front.

In my area I feel like it's been a pretty even balance in ads between the Oz side and the Fetterman side lately. Maybe slightly more Oz, but a little hard to say. Both running a lot of contrast ads, not as much strictly negative or positive, though on balance probably more negative in the Oz/CLF ads.

Shapiro's ads have been running frequently for a while, very little from the pro-Mastriano side, and I want to say not any from Mastriano's own campaign. Both going heavily into the attack stuff by this point. Anti-Shapiro ads have been very generic anti-Dem criticisms (taxes, crime, etc), anti-Mastriano ads have been highly specific on Gab, January 6th, abortion.

I don't watch a ton of television, mostly just the evening news, so I can't speak to how widespread they are outside of that time slot, but they've been running a lot during that time period.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1563238114315083777

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump is already guilty in the voters minds just because he hadn't been indicted or convicted yet doesn't mean anything OJ was acquitted on murder and voters still felt he was guilty

There is an assumption by Rs that it's all Biden Approvals it's not Trump is very much a factor that's why he is losing to Biden in the 24 polls

So, it's not just Masters it's Trump too

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1563238114315083777

Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised if this one is pretty clearly Lean D by Election Day, you could already make a case for moving it to Lean D, but I’m gonna hold off a bit and see where things are in October.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Republicans got fooled into thinking places like Iowa, Montana, and South Carolina were competitive in 2020 and wasted money there. It seems they never learned their lesson.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/hodgesmr/status/1563166264545390592

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Masters thinks he can just change his position like shaking an Etch-a-Sketch.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/hodgesmr/status/1563166264545390592

Srs Kudos to whoever got screengrabs. From now on Imma ensure I do that whenever I see something very controversial on an R's policy page.

[patzer]

Random thought: this race is clearly Lean D, if not Likely, now... but had John McCain not got cancer, would he have been favoured in this election? I feel like he would have.

[Brittain33]

He’d be 86, so there’s a good chance he’d have died of another cause by now.

[ultraviolet]

Or be retiring

[Roll Roons]

Random thought: this race is clearly Lean D, if not Likely, now... but had John McCain not got cancer, would he have been favoured in this election? I feel like he would have.

If he ran again and made it through his primary, yes. But I think it's more likely that he'd retire.

[Sir Mohamed]

Random thought: this race is clearly Lean D, if not Likely, now... but had John McCain not got cancer, would he have been favoured in this election? I feel like he would have.

He would have been DOA in a GOP primary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If McCain didn't die, the Senate would be 51-49 R and the Democrats would have been far less successful at passing their agenda.

[Gracile]

I think McCain would have retired due to a combination of his age (and possible health problems), and dissatisfaction with the state of the GOP today - to say nothing of a possible primary challenge.

[President Johnson]

Random thought: this race is clearly Lean D, if not Likely, now... but had John McCain not got cancer, would he have been favoured in this election? I feel like he would have.

He would have been DOA in a GOP primary.

Absolutely, and probably not even run for reelection again. There's also little doubt in my mind McCain would have voted to convict Trump in both impeachments. The first would be have been kind of ironic, with both Republican opponents of Obama voting to remove Trump from office as the only members of their party.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1564093912305864705

[Brittain33]

Good God. Can’t believe they ran an edgelord in a swing state.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Good God. Can’t believe they ran an edgelord in a swing state.

You can't? This the modern GOP we're talking about. They're at peak shamelessness with room to exceed that.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1564382916246913030

[wbrocks67]

What a hot mess of a campaign.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/KFILE/status/1564382916246913030

Is he, or most Republicans, aware of screenshots and how the internet works? Him, and others, are being very cavalier about how stupid they think voters are (granted his party's base of voters are).