Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[Badger]

Madam Speaker Pelosi must take a stand and refuse to seat Harris under any condition.  

I certainly think this situation is incredibly suspect and needs a thorough investigation, maybe even a whole new election. Still, though, I can't condone refusing to seat him if everything somehow comes up clean.

Agreed 101%. However, there's a lot of information available about this situation, and based on what it is there's only three possible outcomes.

1. This turned out to be a whole big misunderstanding with Miss stated evidence and something everyone will just laugh and get it over with. Chances of this realistically, less than 5% at best. Seriously, if it was enough to get the Republicans on an election board in a hyper-partisan state like North Carolina with the most partisan GOP organization in the country to unanimously vote that there were serious Shenanigans going on, you can count on it.

Two. A full and impartial investigation is done and, if even a fraction of these allegations turn out to be well-founded, a new election needs to be ordered. If so, Harris is hopefully, and justifiably screwed, even in a special election.

Three. The North Carolina GOP acts according to character, or lack thereof, and does everything in anything humanly possible to support and certify the voter fraud that they so passionately oppose when it comes to creating legal blocks that make it tougher for people to vote, ever so coincidentally particularly burning the poor and people of color, in which case Pelosi needs to stand firm and refused to certify Harris. Hell, depending on the outcome the investigation they may very well go ahead and certify McCready, again if even half of these allegations proof true. This was a close election and with widespread extreme voter fraud.

Under situation two or three, two things are apparent. First, one or more people need to do prison time. Secondly, like with most things, Republican allegations of voter fraud are mostly a combination of an argument necessary to convince themselves and look themselves in the mirror and maintain any Pride over voter suppression to retain power, and an equal part pure projection.

[lfromnj]

As of right now Id say is a 70 percent chance of fraud happening . 40 60 the fraud affects the margin mathematically and about 25 percent that Harris is involved

[GeorgiaModerate]

Its also possible the Democratic House just refuses to seat Harris and calls for special election.

absolutely disgusting
Let this bipartisan board do it together. If scotus rules that the board is unconstitutional but the board says for SE id be fine them refusing to seat Harris but the house should not be able to do this.

I mean there are instances where the House refusing to seat someone would be legitimate, such as where the state refuses to investigate and take action on rather blatant fraud. Not that North Carolina is an instance of this (so far, though case looks strong), but the House being able to refuse to seat is a good backstop in a country where states hold a lot of power over elections to Congress.

Also, if the NCGOP tries to short-circuit this investigation in any way, then yes, it would make sense to refuse to seat him. I think the state party is already suing to force them to certify it, so that is one step towards trying to sweep this under the rug.

-

Overall I think it wouldn't be wise to refuse to seat Harris though, unless it becomes clear that there are more fraudulent votes for him that put him over the top. Democrats have to remember that just because you can do something, does not mean you should. It's also something I really wish Republicans would learn as well (no hope there tho). Otherwise, it'd be better to just dismantle the group responsible for these fraudulent ballots and put them in prison, along with anyone who supported them.

The bipartisan board is already left leaning with the indie . The board should have the final decision unless it's obvious

Oh for Pete's sake...

"Left leaning"?!? The board voted unanimously, repeat unanimously, including every single Republican on the board, not to certify the election due to blatant fraud.

What is with you? You've rarely been so hackish to my recollection.

I don't have a problem with the board atm but from my research the indie is left leaning I saw somewhere on tiwtter. Anyway I will continue to trust the board as long as the decisions are 6-3 or higher. I am just against the idea of the house deciding this election unless it's user obvious

I would also be inclined to go with whatever the board rules.  The House intervening to seat one of the candidates can lead to a result that's possibly unjust (see the 1984 IN-08 House election).  The most I would want to see them do (and that only if the result from the state is truly unclear) is declare the seat vacant and leave it to the state to hold a new election, as was done in the 1974 NH Senate race.  The second election in NH was decided by a wide margin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mind you if its determined that Harris was involved in fraud but that it wasn't enough to affect the outcome the latter part is irrelevant-Harris should be going to jail, not Congress. The candidate going to jail seems like a valid reason to not seat him.

[Badger]

As of right now Id say is a 70 percent chance of fraud happening . 40 60 the fraud affects the margin mathematically and about 25 percent that Harris is involved

IMHO, that 70% figure is extremely low based on what we know that's far. It would take an absolute sea change in the facts to be otherwise.

It is almost impossible to come up with a quantitative figures to How likely it would have reversed the margin. Again, the reports indicate writable evidence of actual vote shredding. However, the numbers of day of absentee balloting end the Republican friendly Natura of them was enormous, and probably without even a single shredded Democratic ballot, not to mention how many ballots that were collected from McCready voters in filled out for Harris as the affidavits repeatedly indicate, it would have alone likely flip the election. But again, the only thing one can say is a considerable number of ballots work Forge, and an unknown number destroyed in an ultra close election. I think you're just projecting here and trying to say it doesn't matter.

Third, if you are saying a 25% chance that Harris personally new about these efforts, as opposed to members of his campaign which it appears near certain? Yeah, I'll say that there's at least a 25% chance of that.

[lfromnj]

As of right now Id say is a 70 percent chance of fraud happening . 40 60 the fraud affects the margin mathematically and about 25 percent that Harris is involved

IMHO, that 70% figure is extremely low based on what we know that's far. It would take an absolute sea change in the facts to be otherwise.

It is almost impossible to come up with a quantitative figures to How likely it would have reversed the margin. Again, the reports indicate writable evidence of actual vote shredding. However, the numbers of day of absentee balloting end the Republican friendly Natura of them was enormous, and probably without even a single shredded Democratic ballot, not to mention how many ballots that were collected from McCready voters in filled out for Harris as the affidavits repeatedly indicate, it would have alone likely flip the election. But again, the only thing one can say is a considerable number of ballots work Forge, and an unknown number destroyed in an ultra close election. I think you're just projecting here and trying to say it doesn't matter.

Third, if you are saying a 25% chance that Harris personally new about these efforts, as opposed to members of his campaign which it appears near certain? Yeah, I'll say that there's at least a 25% chance of that.

OK 80 percent but anyway Im not sure Harris is personally involved and we could give him the benefit of the doubt for now

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1068622712078241792

[Virginiá]

The bipartisan board is already left leaning with the indie . The board should have the final decision unless it's obvious

Well I was speaking more generally about the fundamental authority to seat or not seat a Rep-elect whose win is tainted.

But in NC's case, there are a couple issues:

1. The actual structure of the elections board is due to revert back to its old form before this ordeal is over, with the Governor's party holding a majority of seats, because one of the many attempts the NCGOP has made to change the structure to benefit their party was ruled unconstitutional. This is why Harris's campaign is asking the court to stay that decision until after this is resolved.

2. The NCGOP has never been shy about flexing its legislative muscle to rush through rule changes or other schemes to benefit themselves when they feel they might lose an election, or when they have lost but want to nullify the results as much as possible. They called a special session earlier this year just to strip the GOP party registration of the spoiler candidate in the state supreme race (I think they also made other small changes to the rules to benefit their candidate). I'm not convinced they won't try to change the rules of the election board before this is over in order to prevent a new election.

They already have a special session about to start (or has started already) and rumors are that they are attempting to change the election boards again as a 4th attempt to either seize control entirely or make the board so dysfunctional that neither party can do anything.

Situations like this should make it clear why they are so desperate to maintain control of the election + ethics boards.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1068631054020476928

https://twitter.com/JoeBrunoWSOC9/status/1068631943774961666

[Virginiá]

^^ Also worth keeping in mind that there seem to be a number of cases where they took ballots from who were probably Democrats, and presumably changed them to Harris or never submitted the ballots. Turning McCready votes into Harris votes is worse than just adding a Harris vote. Further, who knows how many absentee ballots for McCready were never turned in that would have otherwise been so.

The damage from this could definitely have flipped the result if what has been alleged in affidavits is true and more widespread. This is why a new election is a reasonable option even if the # of fraudulent votes does not surpass Harris's winning margin. No clue how many McCready votes were changed or destroyed outright.

[lfromnj]

FF joe Bruno for doing all this reporting.

[The Mikado]

Stickied thread, yay!

Anyway, I think that new elections are the most likely outcome. This is serious fraud and too blatant to ignore, and the NCSBOE seems to know who they are investigating, in specific.

[lfromnj]

Yeah now im pretty certain there was fraud but now there are two questions

Did the fraud affect the final outcome in this election or the primary.
If not did Mark Harris himself have direction knowledge about this fraud. I would there there is a 50/50 of either or both of these happening and in that scenario I would say there a 90% chance we get a new election,8% chance that Harris is declared the winner and 2% that Mcready is outright declared the winner.

Also harris twitter account had a direct tweet

https://twitter.com/MarkHarrisNC9/status/1068631295218073600

[GeorgiaModerate]

The AP has withdrawn its call of this race.

[lfromnj]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-heck-is-happening-in-that-north-carolina-house-race/

538 article of the entire situation.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-the-heck-is-happening-in-that-north-carolina-house-race/

538 article of the entire situation.

One of the interesting tidbits in this (which I was unaware of previously) is that the questions aren't limited to Bladen County.  Robeson also looks somewhat suspicious.

[justfollowingtheelections]

So the question is, was the Republican candidate somehow aware of (or even involved in) the fraud?  The fact that there is evidence of fraud in the Republican primary as well, makes me suspect there is a good chance he is somehow involved.  I would like to have some more concrete evidence, but this seems to be a case where legal action is necessary. 

I also wonder how often things like this happen in elections in general.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/RepDavidRLewis/status/1068632581451722754

[lfromnj]

although the NC GOP is a complete sh**t show and I don't trust them I really wish the board was a bit more open about the situation. Most of the info we know is from journalists going directly to the county.

[Sorenroy]

Is there any chance that the primary will be redone as well? The 538 article seems to indicate that the anomalies were present but smaller there (not enough to chance the result). Also, the fact that this suspicious activity seems to stretch back through previous election years makes me think that the Harris team did not know about the fraud (at least at its onset, they may have learned later).

[wbrocks67]

Honestly, it seems kind of irrelevant at this point if the fraud changed the outcome of the election. If there was even an ounce of fraud, ballot switching, vote totals changing, etc., then the entire election should be null and void.

[Progressive Pessimist]

North Carolina: the other Florida.

[DrScholl]

This is actually worse than Florida. North Carolina Republicans have gone out of their way to control the state government through gerrymandering, stripping the governor of powers, rearranging Supreme Court elections. The next step was to outright cheat.

[lfromnj]

Florida was more the dems fault and a bit of worried republicans. Honestly the fact Gillum unconceded was not very classy when no recount overturns a 50k margin.
However as NC 9th I am growing more confident that atleast something happened on the county level.

[pantsaregood]

North Carolina: the other Florida.

Not quite. Florida fails out of pure incompetence. North Carolina always fails because the NCGOP is cartoonishly evil.