Democracy Corps: Clinton +8 PA, +4 NC, Tied NV, Trump +2 OH (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 03, 2024, 07:05:34 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Democracy Corps: Clinton +8 PA, +4 NC, Tied NV, Trump +2 OH (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Democracy Corps: Clinton +8 PA, +4 NC, Tied NV, Trump +2 OH  (Read 2387 times)
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,732


« on: September 23, 2016, 02:41:44 PM »

538 has this pollster with a B- and a D+2.4 bias.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,732


« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2016, 03:17:43 PM »

Yeah, James Carville's Democrats strike again. Treat this as nothing other than an advocacy group poll.

It's basically Democrat trolling the media at the end of the day to show Hillary! is up big. And if that's the best they can come up with in NV, Hillary is in trouble there.
I mean... first of all, YES she is in trouble in NV, we knew that already. Second of all, this corroborates all the +5's and +6's we've seen so far, so while I think this is too optimistic I wouldn't discount it completely, unless this pollster has a really terrible history/methodology

Automatically discounting polls by certain pollsters or done for advocacy groups is misguided (and the knee-jerk responses to that effect would be amusing if they weren't so repetitious).  I really doubt that most pollsters would fudge their data to get a desired result -- although it can certainly happen; remember Strategic Vision?  It's certainly true that a pollster's models or methodology can cause them to consistently lean to one side or the other; but this becomes evident with enough data, and it can be adjusted for.  538 has this pollster with a D+2.4 bias, and if you apply that to the numbers in this poll then they look to be in line with other recent polls.

Also, a reputable pollster isn't going to fudge their numbers just to give the group hiring them the result that the group wants.  But the hiring group may choose a particular pollster because of the pollster's known bias in order to get as favorable a result as possible.  That's likely the reason the group behind this poll used Democracy Corps.  It's the same reason that Breitbart uses Gravis, which tends to have a Republican bias.  If the group paying for a poll doesn't like the result they get, they can always choose not to release it.  This undoubtedly happens during any campaign.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,732


« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2016, 03:55:11 PM »

If we adjust this 2-3 points toward Trump, we get for Clinton:

PA + 5-6
NC + 1-2
NV - 2-3
OH - 4-5

That's pretty much in line with recent polling.


So Nate and 538 has adjusted these +2 in Trump's favor (As expected) and they have a lower weight than most other polls in these four states, but yes basically reinforces what we have seen elsewhere that Clinton looks solid in PA, NC is close to tossup with narrow Trump lead, NV is close to tossup with narrow Trump lead, OH is lean Trump by a small margin.

If anyone has a tiny lead in NC, I think it's Clinton.  We could very well see IA and OH go R this year while NC goes D.  Who would have expected that?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.026 seconds with 12 queries.