Democracy Corps: Clinton +8 PA, +4 NC, Tied NV, Trump +2 OH

[Wiz in Wis]

On the eve of the first major presidential debate, the latest likely voter survey of the battleground states on behalf of Women’s Voices. Women Vote Action Fund shows Hillary Clinton settled into a strong lead in Pennsylvania, a modest one in North Carolina, and essentially tied in Ohio and Nevada where our polling had the race earlier.[1] Her overall margin has narrowed from where we had it across the battleground in June. Nothing comes easily in this election year, but the Clinton margin should grow from the structure of the race revealed in this analysis. In the two-person ballot, her margin grows 2-points to a 5-point lead across these states and she takes the lead in Nevada.  And if the 3rd party candidates weaken, as is normal, Clinton disproportionately benefits.

PA
Clinton 46
Trump 38
Johnson 8
Stein 3

NC
Clinton 44
Trump 40
Johnson 9
Stein 3 (not on ballot)

NV
Clinton 42
Trump 42
Johnson 7
Stein 2 (not on ballot)

OH
Trump 41
Clinton 39
Johnson 11
Stein 4


http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1044/Dcorps_WV_Sept%20BG%20Deck_9.23.2016_release.pdf

[LLR]

That's pretty weird... The trends in this election are gonna be massive

[Yank2133]

Trump is toast in PA.

[GeorgiaModerate]

538 has this pollster with a B- and a D+2.4 bias.

[pppolitics]

NC to the left of NV

Hmm...

[Yank2133]

BTW, they need to stop polling Stein in NV.

[Antonio the Sixth]

538 has this pollster with a B- and a D+2.4 bias.

That's still very good for NC, but very bad for NV and OH.

[Wiz in Wis]

538 has this pollster with a B- and a D+2.4 bias.

That's still very good for NC, but very bad for NV and OH.

NV still a crapshoot, regardless of house lean.

[Lief 🗽]

Two-way vote is:

NC: C+3
NV: C+3
PA: C+9
OH: Tie

[elcorazon]

538 has this pollster with a B- and a D+2.4 bias.

That's still very good for NC, but very bad for NV and OH.

If Hillary wins NC and PA she's President though. Add to that that NV has been polling like that for awhile. If there is a problem with polling the state, great, but if not, I'd rather win NC and lose NV than the other way around.

[Gass3268]

Pretty consistent with most of the polling we've seen recently once you take the bias into account. Not bad!

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

538 has this pollster with a B- and a D+2.4 bias.

That's still very good for NC, but very bad for NV and OH.

If Hillary wins NC and PA she's President though. Add to that that NV has been polling like that for awhile. If there is a problem with polling the state, great, but if not, I'd rather win NC and lose NV than the other way around.

pretty much. I don't get why people stress so much about Nevada... it's 6 EV's, lol. Just admit it's going to be close, whether or not Clinton wins it, and that there are better options for expanding the Freiwal.

[Seriously?]

Yeah, James Carville's Democrats strike again. Treat this as nothing other than an advocacy group poll.

It's basically Democrat trolling the media at the end of the day to show Hillary! is up big. And if that's the best they can come up with in NV, Hillary is in trouble there.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Yeah, James Carville's Democrats strike again. Treat this as nothing other than an advocacy group poll.

It's basically Democrat trolling the media at the end of the day to show Hillary! is up big. And if that's the best they can come up with in NV, Hillary is in trouble there.

I mean... first of all, YES she is in trouble in NV, we knew that already. Second of all, this corroborates all the +5's and +6's we've seen so far, so while I think this is too optimistic I wouldn't discount it completely, unless this pollster has a really terrible history/methodology

[Person Man]

So we are basically back to where we were before the 9/11 weekend and around where many have claimed the "equilibrium" of the race was?

[Wells]

Yeah, James Carville's Democrats strike again. Treat this as nothing other than an advocacy group poll.

It's basically Democrat trolling the media at the end of the day to show Hillary! is up big. And if that's the best they can come up with in NV, Hillary is in trouble there.

But it's a data point.

[Seriously?]

Yeah, James Carville's Democrats strike again. Treat this as nothing other than an advocacy group poll.

It's basically Democrat trolling the media at the end of the day to show Hillary! is up big. And if that's the best they can come up with in NV, Hillary is in trouble there.

But it's a data point.

Of course it's a data point, but it's a data point that needs to be taken with the requisite amount of salt.

It's the equivalent to a poll from the NRA saying Trump leads.

[Person Man]

This makes sense if Brietbart has her up 4.

[Xing]

Obviously the all important uneducated white voters in NV will make it a Trumpslide, so LOL for NV being tied.

Anyway, good numbers for Hillary in PA and NC, terrible numbers for her in OH, though I have a hard time believing that OH will be six points to the right of NC (and ten points to the right of PA.) The two-way numbers make a little more sense.

[Ebsy]

Clinton +3 in the two way in Nevada is the best poll for her in a while.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Yeah, James Carville's Democrats strike again. Treat this as nothing other than an advocacy group poll.

It's basically Democrat trolling the media at the end of the day to show Hillary! is up big. And if that's the best they can come up with in NV, Hillary is in trouble there.

I mean... first of all, YES she is in trouble in NV, we knew that already. Second of all, this corroborates all the +5's and +6's we've seen so far, so while I think this is too optimistic I wouldn't discount it completely, unless this pollster has a really terrible history/methodology

Automatically discounting polls by certain pollsters or done for advocacy groups is misguided (and the knee-jerk responses to that effect would be amusing if they weren't so repetitious).  I really doubt that most pollsters would fudge their data to get a desired result -- although it can certainly happen; remember Strategic Vision?  It's certainly true that a pollster's models or methodology can cause them to consistently lean to one side or the other; but this becomes evident with enough data, and it can be adjusted for.  538 has this pollster with a D+2.4 bias, and if you apply that to the numbers in this poll then they look to be in line with other recent polls.

Also, a reputable pollster isn't going to fudge their numbers just to give the group hiring them the result that the group wants.  But the hiring group may choose a particular pollster because of the pollster's known bias in order to get as favorable a result as possible.  That's likely the reason the group behind this poll used Democracy Corps.  It's the same reason that Breitbart uses Gravis, which tends to have a Republican bias.  If the group paying for a poll doesn't like the result they get, they can always choose not to release it.  This undoubtedly happens during any campaign.

[Absolution9]

If we adjust this 2-3 points toward Trump, we get for Clinton:

PA + 5-6
NC + 1-2
NV - 2-3
OH - 4-5

That's pretty much in line with recent polling.

[Classic Conservative]

If we adjust this 2-3 points toward Trump, we get for Clinton:

PA + 5-6
NC + 1-2
NV - 2-3
OH - 4-5

That's pretty much in line with recent polling.

[NOVA Green]

If we adjust this 2-3 points toward Trump, we get for Clinton:

PA + 5-6
NC + 1-2
NV - 2-3
OH - 4-5

That's pretty much in line with recent polling.

So Nate and 538 has adjusted these +2 in Trump's favor (As expected) and they have a lower weight than most other polls in these four states, but yes basically reinforces what we have seen elsewhere that Clinton looks solid in PA, NC is close to tossup with narrow Trump lead, NV is close to tossup with narrow Trump lead, OH is lean Trump by a small margin.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If we adjust this 2-3 points toward Trump, we get for Clinton:

PA + 5-6
NC + 1-2
NV - 2-3
OH - 4-5

That's pretty much in line with recent polling.

So Nate and 538 has adjusted these +2 in Trump's favor (As expected) and they have a lower weight than most other polls in these four states, but yes basically reinforces what we have seen elsewhere that Clinton looks solid in PA, NC is close to tossup with narrow Trump lead, NV is close to tossup with narrow Trump lead, OH is lean Trump by a small margin.

If anyone has a tiny lead in NC, I think it's Clinton.  We could very well see IA and OH go R this year while NC goes D.  Who would have expected that?