Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Hnv1]

Well it’s happening. Let the games begin

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So with lack of funds it's already clear The Arab lists will form a joint list again. Meretz-Labour are set for a joint run. NR and Zehut are contemplating.

The field will be even less crowded.

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Well as I'll be in Australia this is officially the first ever national, local, party elections I will not take part in

[Hnv1]

Well as I'll be in Australia this is officially the first ever national, local, party elections I will not take part in

Who do you usually vote for, by the way?

In every GE bar the last one I voted Meretz, last time around I voted Balad as a protest. (I did almost vote Labour in 2003).

As it appears now, Gabbay is out of the door and whoever succeeds him will agree to a joint run with Meretz, I naturally wouldn't vote this abomination.

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So, the big question now is...considering the amount of fire he's getting and is still to get by September, will Liberman recommend bibi again to the president? if not that's going to be huge.

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Shmulie Itzhik is running for Labor leader, which is fantastic. I wonder if Stav Shaffir or, more likely, Amir Peretz challenge him.

absolutely mellow knob.

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First polls show YB gaining, Likud-Kulano basically at a standstill, Labour almost at the threshold. No majority for the Right without YB

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Hey, new elections mean Orly Levy can be on the Likud or Blue and White list now, right?

Yes. But I don’t see any reason either would want her. She’s hardly worth her own seat right now

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Do we know approximately how many zehut voters were 'true believers' so to speak, and how many were attracted by marijuana legalization? The media and imagery that both came from zehut and was discussed in the media definitely focused on the later, so much so that Marijuana became the parties headline in US papers when they were discussing the election.

No exact figures but bottomline most Zehutvoters came from traditional right wing strongholds. So the liberal agenda had very little pull with secular voters in the end

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Judging from the series Shtisel, there Haredim all seem to smoke tobacco like crazy. What is the religious justification behind tobacco = good; cannabis = bad???

It's not tobacco good, cannabis bad, it's both are OK but, as the Israeli posters have pointed out, making a big point out of being pro-legalization as one of your big issues is probably a sign that you're not really into the pious Haredi lifestyle.

What the earlier posters are saying is that a Haredi voter might have no objection to weed being legal and even see no reason to view smoking weed as incompatible with Halakhic religious Law, but someone like Feiglin who goes around making pot his #1 focus in his public appearances sure seems suspiciously secular in his chosen priorities.

No, that's no correct. Both tobacco and marijuana are looked on poorly by rabbinic legal authorities. But people are more comfortable shrugging off rules against tobacco than rules against marijuana. A sizable minority of HaredI men smoke tobacco. Very, very few smoke pot.

Don't what Haredi men you know, but they chainsmoke like crazies. Also weed isn't strictly forbidden, so Rabbis oppose it but it's not a strict ban Dehureita but rather a soft one Derabanan

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Bibi has fired Shaked and Bennett from the government. Would this decrease the chances of Shaked joining Likud?

Well basically Bibi did the right thing, having them in interim government without a public mandate is unreasonable, 2 citizens sitting in the cabinet making decisions during the summer if there's a war in Gaza?

Though now our interim government is basically Bibi. It's quite a conundrum and a shame our constitution does not allow that president to sack the interim government and appoint a real temporary one (in the case where the interim government is the government picked by the previous parliament).


Anyhow, Shaked isn't going to Likud.

 

Labor has decided to hold a new leadership election, but not new primaries. That's probably a good call.

That's a terrible call. What if the new leader isn't elected as they were too few seats? why does Gabbay and Russo entitled to a spot?
New leader should get first and the rest can move up a spot.

Gabbay is a complete bellend.

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Labour party news. Russo gives away his guaranteed spot but says he may run for leadership.
The party is a like a house with 6 tenants, 9 people running to be house committee chairperson, and the house having an eviction notice.

You can't be more finished politically 

[Hnv1]

On top of the basic religious grip on our lives I assume what annoys the average secular is the fact that as time goes by they're more shameless. (though I fully think they're a bit of a straw boogeyman and the religious zionist are more dangerous).

Anyway yes, an election on religion and state is bad news for Likud

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On top of the basic religious grip on our lives I assume what annoys the average secular is the fact that as time goes by they're more shameless. (though I fully think they're a bit of a straw boogeyman and the religious zionist are more dangerous).

Anyway yes, an election on religion and state is bad news for Likud

Would this be parties like Jewish Home/New Right/United Right correct? What's their stance on the theocratic model?

Also how do the religious parties justify backing somebody with questionable morals like Netenyahu? Do any of them back social justice/anti/corruption policies? I remember David posted a Shas advert where it was clearly aimed at the working poor and their real issues vs the secular middle class and their fake ones. Does that narrative still exist in religious parties.

Yes it's them. It's debatable, but as the debate with Smotric the past few days who wants more Jewish law implemented shows, they want a creeping theocracy unlike the singular theocracy of the Haredi.

They don't care much for Netanyahu's morals, preserving the land is much more important. I would say they have deplorable morals of their own, but you know to each is own.
Some espouse some form of leftist populist social justice platform, but this is done in a very Jewish\Israeli context and is hardly the center piece of their agenda

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rumors that Barak is considering running for the Labour top post again. what a failure of a party

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What happened to National Union? Does Tkuma control National Union's assets?

The National Union is essentially Tkuma-Moledet who merged. they're one and same

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Aren't Meretz more of a party that advocates the strengthening and emancipation of Arabs and Palestinian identity within an Israeli (thus somewhat Jewish, although obviously secular) state context? Whereas the two others actively question the existence or necessity of a Jewish state and would favour one state solution? Or have policies changed?

sorry if this is phrased stupidly.

Meretz is a Zionist party and the Arab parties are not. That may seem like a massive gap, but in reality the difference in policy goals of each is negligible because who knows what it even means to be Zionist anymore.

Meretz’s Zionism is under debate. The party’s left wants to join the Arabs and the right wants to join Labour

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Former MK Nitzan Horowitz will run for Meretz leadership. He'll be the front for the Gilon\socialist camp and we'll see a merger with Labour within a month. I expect him to win with ease, so that's another party off the table

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Former MK Nitzan Horowitz will run for Meretz leadership. He'll be the front for the Gilon\socialist camp and we'll see a merger with Labour within a month. I expect him to win with ease, so that's another party off the table

Interestingly though, his campaign seemed focused soley on religion and state issues. No mention of anything economic or the word socialism. I had to be told by a Meretz friend that he's a Gilon person. Also, what's the difference between him and Zandberg when it comes to a merger with Labour? She seems to support it, at least.

As for Labour- Tal Russo announced that he's leaving political life and won't run for leadership. Good riddance, he contributed nothing. Currently, Stav Shaffir is the only announced candidate, while Peretz is likely to announce officially too. I'm not sure about other contenders like Shmuli. Yair Golan, another former General who's famous for making comments comparing the extremism in Israel to the leadup in Nazi Germany is also considering. But if it's Shaffir vs Peretz, she'll almost definitely win.

Yes, Horowitz 'red' affiliation is a subtle detail that is only known within the party circles. I had to read through the comments to his post to see how and who orchestrated it. 

There's no difference, but I assume negotiations with Meretz under Horowitz would be much easier as he's much more eager to join labour (i.e. Gilon's people are) and they wouldn't mind bonking Rozin and Freg lower down the joint list.

[Hnv1]

Former MK Nitzan Horowitz will run for Meretz leadership. He'll be the front for the Gilon\socialist camp and we'll see a merger with Labour within a month. I expect him to win with ease, so that's another party off the table

Interestingly though, his campaign seemed focused soley on religion and state issues. No mention of anything economic or the word socialism. I had to be told by a Meretz friend that he's a Gilon person. Also, what's the difference between him and Zandberg when it comes to a merger with Labour? She seems to support it, at least.

As for Labour- Tal Russo announced that he's leaving political life and won't run for leadership. Good riddance, he contributed nothing. Currently, Stav Shaffir is the only announced candidate, while Peretz is likely to announce officially too. I'm not sure about other contenders like Shmuli. Yair Golan, another former General who's famous for making comments comparing the extremism in Israel to the leadup in Nazi Germany is also considering. But if it's Shaffir vs Peretz, she'll almost definitely win.

Yes, Horowitz 'red' affiliation is a subtle detail that is only known within the party circles. I had to read through the comments to his post to see how and who orchestrated it. 

There's no difference, but I assume negotiations with Meretz under Horowitz would be much easier as he's much more eager to join labour (i.e. Gilon's people are) and they wouldn't mind bonking Rozin and Freg lower down the joint list.

Why did Zandberg, who won easily a year ago, get so unpopular so fast? Meretz hardly cratered electorally (unlike Labor), and she didn't do anything to really alienate Meretz members. I don't get what Meretz people think Horowitz can do that she did not.

First scandal was hiring right wing campaigners. She personally is hardly of leadership material and just failed to inspire anyone. The party barely pulled over the threshold. The base does not find her inspiring. Internal party schisms only grew during her era.

I don't think anyone think Horowitz can "do" something. There are very few members who think the party needs to contest another election alone. I suppose Horowitz was put up front as an easier head to negotiate a merger and the bad blood between the reds and Zandberg's people.

[Hnv1]

Several Israeli politics updates:

* In Meretz, former MK Mosi Raz and MK Isawi Farij have announced a joint run for leadership. They'd have to ammend the party's rules for this to be allowed. In any case, from what I've seen (Hnv can correct me), they're staunchly in the green camp, so right now it looks like Zandberg vs Horovits vs Raz\Farij. The list will be redone too- I guess if Zandberg loses the leadership, she'd run for the list because she's still too young to retire.
* MK Avi Gabbay officially announced that he'll retire from politics and not run on Labour's party list. That means the current list is 1. Leader 2. Shmuli 3. Shaffir 4. Yachmovich 5. Peretz 6. Michaeli. If Shmuli\Shaffir\Peretz are elected leader (currently they're the only ones running- Yachimovich won't run) they'll be placed first and most everyong else moves up one spot.
* On the right, Zehut leader Feiglin affirmed his party won't run together with the URWP because their patronizing attituge towards secular Jews would scare off his voters. A broken clock and all. He did say a merger with a Shaked\Bennet lead New Right is in the cards, so New Right-Zehut and URWP as the two parties running from Likud's right (other than Yisrael Beiteinu). It's still unknown what Shaked will do, but with Smotrich saying she shouldn't lead a united right list and with the Netanyahus barring her from Likud, looks like New Right-Zehut is her best option. She did confirm she'll run somewhere.

- The convention is gathering on Sunday but they need 60% to amend the party constitution which isn't going to happen (though I'm not sure they have to legally but there's no time for court battles). leadership primaries by the 1K strong convention (probably) will happen on June 27th (I'll be in Moscow) and primaries for the list in mid July.
Zandberg is heading for a colossal defeat it seems, I'll wait and see if she'll try running for the list as well.

- Labour is in shambles, they are going to get all the membership to vote on whether to have a primaries by the membership or by the convention. I think Shmoli is going to win (Shaffir and Peretz are too hated by too many groups).

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Which groups on the left would hate Shaffir?

The socialists don't like her all that much actually. I've seen several attacks on her and her work on Transparency as neo-liberal.

What do you mean? I believe the convention will choose between a normal primary and a convention election?

I believe the district court yesterday decided this authority lies with the membership not the convention

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Which groups on the left would hate Shaffir?

The socialists don't like her all that much actually. I've seen several attacks on her and her work on Transparency as neo-liberal.

What do you mean? I believe the convention will choose between a normal primary and a convention election?

I believe the district court yesterday decided this authority lies with the membership not the convention

Haha that sounds cartoonishly corrupt. "Transparent goverent is a neoliberal scheme to hurt the poor!!!"

More like the struggle for transparent governance is important but is an elitist struggle that is hiding the more important struggle for social justice.

Socialists were never good with facts you know

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What is a joint leadership campaign? Why does it require changing rules?

When two people occupy the role of a chairman, like with the Grünen. As the party constitution allegedly allows for only one person to be chair it has to be changed

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Labour updates:
* Former Mossad head Dani Yatom sent a SMS to voters that he's planning on running. I doubt he has a silver of a chance.
* Amir Peretz continues flip flopping on the issue of a primary, and is now pivoting to support an open primary for leader AND list, allegedly as part of an alliance with former MK Eitan Cabel.
* Ehud Barak is looking like this election's wildcard. According to Channel 2, he's trying to form a new party with figures like former IDF Chief Gadi Isenkot, Tzipi Livni, former liberal Likud Minister Dan Meridor and retired general Yair Golan. He's hoping to use this party to unite the entire center-left. He's also negotiating with Amir Peretz and Itzik Shmuli to cooperate with Labour. Could this mean Shaffir is down in the internal polls and these two are the frontrunners? Maybe, I hope not.

In Meretz: MK Ilan Gilon officially endorsed former MK Nitsan Horovits, making it clear that he's part of that camp.

So I remember Meretz used to be divided between a socialist wing that was dovish but not super dovish (represented by GIlon) and a neo-liberal wing that was super dovish (represented by GAlon). I'm seeing news stories saying that Horowitz is backed by the "red faction" which I would assume is the socialist GIlon faction but I also see news stories saying he's backed by former leader GAlon. So is it fair to say that the two wings that used to fight for control of the party have put their differences behind them and are now united against the Zandberg wing?

Also, what does the Zandberg wing stand for? I assume it's both socialist AND super dovish?

Is the unity between GIlon and GAlon factions just opportunistic? I would have thought GAlon had more in common with Zandberg than with GIlon.

Complicated. part of the old Galon camp supports Horowitz because they like the commies want to join Labour, the other part (Freg and Raz) support Zandberg for different reasons.

I wouldn't say the Zandberg "wing" stands for anything distinctively, it has a myriad of people. Zandberg herself is socialist (but in a more global way to Gilon old socialism) but also supports green politics and feminist radicalism.

This is less of an argument about ideology. it's more about personal feud and which way the party should go: merge with Labour, or a united Arab-Jewish front.