Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Politico claims the Biden admin agrees to support an effort to train Ukrainian pilots to use jets, including the F-16, in Europe: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/19/fighter-jets-ukraine-biden-00097846

Potential donors of F-16 down the line, according to the source, include Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands; nothing has been decided yet.

The F-16 is not the ideal platform by a long shot, but its selling point is that it will be the most available. The nature of US support here is going to be very important - training capacity in some European air forces may be very limited at the moment according to certain analyses I've read. Politico's source describe the training initiative as taking [only? at least?] months.

Better late than never.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/nlwartracker/status/1659580094812237826?s=12

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Biden admin is warming up to the idea of a frozen conflict most likely happening, for years or even decades.

You are projecting in the style of Russian propaganda, since a frozen conflict for years or even decades is literally every war started by Putin. Frozen conflict is Putin's M.O.

Given all the resources the Russian state has at its disposal, certainly plausible for a frozen conflict to go on for many years.
More than anything else, it's a reason for us to back up Ukraine as needed. We're in this for the long haul. (Unless we make some kind of deal with Russia that would work out for our global interests, that involves us stopping backing Ukraine. We'll see.)

[Hindsight was 2020]

Biden admin is warming up to the idea of a frozen conflict most likely happening, for years or even decades.

You are projecting in the style of Russian propaganda, since a frozen conflict for years or even decades is literally every war started by Putin. Frozen conflict is Putin's M.O.

Given all the resources the Russian state has at its disposal, certainly plausible for a frozen conflict to go on for many years.
More than anything else, it's a reason for us to back up Ukraine as needed. We're in this for the long haul. (Unless we make some kind of deal with Russia that would work out for our global interests, that involves us stopping backing Ukraine. We'll see.)

But how long realistically? Ukraine keeps getting better weapons and training from the West while just a small counterattack around Bakhmut has caused all this public fighting between Wagner and the MOD. The only way this conflict gets “frozen” is Ukraine pushes Russia out of everywhere but they refuse to give up and negotiate but I’m not sure the Russian public will tolerate such events

[jaichind]

[Storr]

Something is on fire in Mariupol:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1659625250789703706?s=20

[President Johnson]

Lmao, Russia just banned Obama from entering the country. Where's he gonna spend in his summer vacation?

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1659615990307536899

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

Given all the resources the Russian state has at its disposal, certainly plausible for a frozen conflict to go on for many years.
More than anything else, it's a reason for us to back up Ukraine as needed. We're in this for the long haul. (Unless we make some kind of deal with Russia that would work out for our global interests, that involves us stopping backing Ukraine. We'll see.)

Perhaps someday it will be possible to negotiate with Russia again, there are (or were) brilliant young people in Russia, but the Putin and Patrushev clique is absolutely incapable of negotiating. Their state is controlled by a terrorist organization.

[GoTfan]

I'm still convinced that the reason for this invasion is because Putin's on borrowed time. He usually thinks fairly long term, but he has been taking more and more risks lately, including this war, and wants to be remembered as the man who rebuilt Russian dominance.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Want to know why Ukraine is losing? It hasn't taken back a single city, village or settlement in half a year. Not a single one in 2023.

Why should Ukraine go on the offensive when Putin is helping them slaughter his soldiers en masse?

[The Mikado]

I'm still convinced that the reason for this invasion is because Putin's on borrowed time. He usually thinks fairly long term, but he has been taking more and more risks lately, including this war, and wants to be remembered as the man who rebuilt Russian dominance.

I disagree. He's always been a gambler. It's just that he made some bets that won and it made him overconfident.

Arresting Khordokovsky and breaking the Yeltsin-era elite to establish dominance was a risk. It worked nicely, allowing him to replace them with his own cronies whom he made.

War with Georgia in 2008 was a risk. The West could've intervened. It didn't.

Assassinating various opposition figures abroad was a series of colossal risks, both the Litvinenko murder and then, worse, the attempted murder of Skipral that had dozens of ordinary Brits poisoned in the process. West could've retaliated. It didn't.

Coming back into direct power after puppeting Medvedev was a risk. The Russian people could've risen up. They didn't.

Invading Crimea was a risk. It could've been a debacle. It wasn't. It was the biggest success of his Presidency.

Stirring up the revolt in the Donbas was a risk. One of his rebels could've shot down a Malaysian airliner full of Western civilians...oh, wait, that actually happened. And he still got away with it.

So why wouldn't he think he could get away with this?

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile in Russian occupied Crimea, another train goes off the tracks...

A train derailment Thursday near the Russian-occupied city of Simferopol has blocked the only rail route into the port of Sevastopol, where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based, Britain’s Defense Ministry said Friday. The incident will disrupt deliveries of supplies and potentially weapons, according to the ministry’s daily update.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/19/russia-ukraine-war-news-zelensky/

Certainly a possibility that the train driver was intoxicated or high on substances that causes the train derailment.

Naturally other options could be sabotage from domestic Crimean resistance fighters, or less likely Ukrainian Special Ops.

Still, we all know that Russia is a nation of alcoholics where Environmental, Health, and Safety regulations are more commonly ignored, where there is very little chance of regulatory consequences for what are basic international standards when it comes to such items.

[NOVA Green]

I'm still convinced that the reason for this invasion is because Putin's on borrowed time. He usually thinks fairly long term, but he has been taking more and more risks lately, including this war, and wants to be remembered as the man who rebuilt Russian dominance.

I disagree. He's always been a gambler. It's just that he made some bets that won and it made him overconfident.

Arresting Khordokovsky and breaking the Yeltsin-era elite to establish dominance was a risk. It worked nicely, allowing him to replace them with his own cronies whom he made.

War with Georgia in 2008 was a risk. The West could've intervened. It didn't.

Assassinating various opposition figures abroad was a series of colossal risks, both the Litvinenko murder and then, worse, the attempted murder of Skipral that had dozens of ordinary Brits poisoned in the process. West could've retaliated. It didn't.

Coming back into direct power after puppeting Medvedev was a risk. The Russian people could've risen up. They didn't.

Invading Crimea was a risk. It could've been a debacle. It wasn't. It was the biggest success of his Presidency.

Stirring up the revolt in the Donbas was a risk. One of his rebels could've shot down a Malaysian airliner full of Western civilians...oh, wait, that actually happened. And he still got away with it.

So why wouldn't he think he could get away with this?

Portrait of Putin as a young man, with a bit of Kenny Rogers in the background...

Doubt that this will work for Putin, but at this point is more like defending the hundreds of billions of dollars he has looted from the Russian people in his secret stash accounts.

[The Mikado]

So how long until Woodbury shows up to say "There is no panic in Klishchiivka. Reports that the Ukrainians are just 2km away from the town are false Western propaganda. Everything in the Bakhmut theater is proceeding according to plan."

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm still convinced that the reason for this invasion is because Putin's on borrowed time. He usually thinks fairly long term, but he has been taking more and more risks lately, including this war, and wants to be remembered as the man who rebuilt Russian dominance.

I disagree. He's always been a gambler. It's just that he made some bets that won and it made him overconfident.

Arresting Khordokovsky and breaking the Yeltsin-era elite to establish dominance was a risk. It worked nicely, allowing him to replace them with his own cronies whom he made.

War with Georgia in 2008 was a risk. The West could've intervened. It didn't.

Assassinating various opposition figures abroad was a series of colossal risks, both the Litvinenko murder and then, worse, the attempted murder of Skipral that had dozens of ordinary Brits poisoned in the process. West could've retaliated. It didn't.

Coming back into direct power after puppeting Medvedev was a risk. The Russian people could've risen up. They didn't.

Invading Crimea was a risk. It could've been a debacle. It wasn't. It was the biggest success of his Presidency.

Stirring up the revolt in the Donbas was a risk. One of his rebels could've shot down a Malaysian airliner full of Western civilians...oh, wait, that actually happened. And he still got away with it.

So why wouldn't he think he could get away with this?

It's not gambling at this point, though. It's dictator-syndrome; he's become so detached from reality that he can't make informed decisions, whether they're risky or not. You can see the same pattern in, for example, Hitler.  Every move he made was a risk, and he got away with it... until he overreached beyond what Germany could actually support, or the rest of the world would tolerate, and then he kept pushing until everything collapsed in ruins.

[Storr]

Politico claims the Biden admin agrees to support an effort to train Ukrainian pilots to use jets, including the F-16, in Europe: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/19/fighter-jets-ukraine-biden-00097846

Potential donors of F-16 down the line, according to the source, include Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands; nothing has been decided yet.

The F-16 is not the ideal platform by a long shot, but its selling point is that it will be the most available. The nature of US support here is going to be very important - training capacity in some European air forces may be very limited at the moment according to certain analyses I've read. Politico's source describe the training initiative as taking [only? at least?] months.

Better late than never.

Portugal joins:

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1659756077637042183?s=20

[Storr]

Something is on fire in Mariupol:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1659625250789703706?s=20

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1659630457359843328?s=20

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I'm still convinced that the reason for this invasion is because Putin's on borrowed time. He usually thinks fairly long term, but he has been taking more and more risks lately, including this war, and wants to be remembered as the man who rebuilt Russian dominance.

He looks more like a man who destroyed the well-being of Russia.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'm still convinced that the reason for this invasion is because Putin's on borrowed time. He usually thinks fairly long term, but he has been taking more and more risks lately, including this war, and wants to be remembered as the man who rebuilt Russian dominance.

He looks more like a man who destroyed the well-being of Russia.

Yeltsin is dead.

[dead0man]

I'm still convinced that the reason for this invasion is because Putin's on borrowed time. He usually thinks fairly long term, but he has been taking more and more risks lately, including this war, and wants to be remembered as the man who rebuilt Russian dominance.

He looks more like a man who destroyed the well-being of Russia.

Yeltsin is dead.

doesn't that curve kind of follow the price of crude oil?

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I'm still convinced that the reason for this invasion is because Putin's on borrowed time. He usually thinks fairly long term, but he has been taking more and more risks lately, including this war, and wants to be remembered as the man who rebuilt Russian dominance.

He looks more like a man who destroyed the well-being of Russia.

Yeltsin is dead.

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Characteristic recessions in 2008 and 2014, with Putin-raids to Georgia and Ukraine. And in terms of population, the country halved in 1991, there is clearly some kind of cheating with equating the USSR with the Russian Federation.

[Oleg 🇰🇿🤝🇺🇦]

I would watch with interest the recession from 2023 and beyond, I think it will be especially significant.

[jaichind]

I would watch with interest the recession from 2023 and beyond, I think it will be especially significant.

Of course, that logic cuts both ways.  A mild world recession has been mostly priced in the world energy markets.  A severe world recession will for sure hammer world energy prices but such a severe recession will also shift the political dynamics in the collective West as far as the priority of resource allocation toward Ukraine's economic and military aid.  I think the pockets and will on both sides are pretty deep.  There is no reason to believe that this will be an indefinite war that will mostly benefit those outside it.

[jaichind]

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/russian-hypersonic-patriot-mercenary-casualties

"Russian Hypersonic Strikes on Ukraine’s New Patriot Missiles Likely Caused Mercenary Casualties - This is Why"

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1659883799969136640