AZ, FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +1%, Trump +4%

[wbrocks67]

Trump approval (RV)
FL 47/51 (-4)
AZ 47/51 (-4)

Honestly, the RV matchup in FL looks normal. Trump -4 approval, Biden +1 edge among RV. However, the entire AZ sample and FL LV sample on the other hand...

[KaiserDave]

Looking forward to the 8 pages to come
Not

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Striking in Arizona is the result in Maricopa County, home to more than half the state’s likely
voters. In Maricopa’s cities, Biden leads by 61-35 percent; in the county but outside of its cities it’s a dead even 47-47 percent. It’s also a near-even race in and around Tucson, which Clinton
won in 2016. Those compare with 65 percent for Trump in the rest of the state.

Both those numbers should raise huge red flags. As it happens, AZ is a state where weighting by county is viable and makes sense.

[Woody]

FL - Tilt R -> Lean R
AZ - Tilt D -> Toss-up

[NHI]

579 as a sample size for Arizona and 613 for Florida?!

Throw this in the garbage disposal.

[Sbane]

Striking in Arizona is the result in Maricopa County, home to more than half the state’s likely
voters. In Maricopa’s cities, Biden leads by 61-35 percent; in the county but outside of its cities it’s a dead even 47-47 percent. It’s also a near-even race in and around Tucson, which Clinton
won in 2016. Those compare with 65 percent for Trump in the rest of the state.

Both those numbers should raise huge red flags. As it happens, AZ is a state where weighting by county is viable and makes sense.

I wonder what they define as "cities" in Maricopa County. Mesa or Chandler are cities but would usually be considered suburbs of Phoenix, even though Mesa has a population of more than 500,000.

[forza nocta]

Im surprised this isn’t at 10 pages already

[Hindsight was 2020]

These cross tabs are trash 🤢.

[bilaps]

Trump approval (RV)
FL 47/51 (-4)
AZ 47/51 (-4)

Honestly, the RV matchup in FL looks normal. Trump -4 approval, Biden +1 edge among RV. However, the entire AZ sample and FL LV sample on the other hand...

Well, of course when it doesn't suit you. I mean how you don't get tired unskewing every single poll on this board which doesn't go with your way of thinking where the race is. It's just plain annoying. You unskew this, but you don't say a word for change polls you posted with less than 300 people in AZ sample from a known bad pollster, you're silent there. But hey this sample looks bad.

[Sbane]

Iowa is tied but Trump is ahead in AZ? I just don't buy that. We shall see if future polls confirm these results or not.

[wbrocks67]

Trump approval (RV)
FL 47/51 (-4)
AZ 47/51 (-4)

Honestly, the RV matchup in FL looks normal. Trump -4 approval, Biden +1 edge among RV. However, the entire AZ sample and FL LV sample on the other hand...

Well, of course when it doesn't suit you. I mean how you don't get tired unskewing every single poll on this board which doesn't go with your way of thinking where the race is. It's just plain annoying. You unskew this, but you don't say a word for change polls you posted with less than 300 people in AZ sample from a known bad pollster, you're silent there. But hey this sample looks bad.

I'm literally going off of nearly every other poll + the polling averages we've gotten. Not opinion. Trump leading in both states IS an outlier, as well as many of the crosstabs. You can see yourself out.

[bilaps]

No, you didn't say a word for those Change polls. No unskewing, no to looking in samples because you like those results.

[Eraserhead]

Predictable. Biden doesn't need either to win though.

[Badger]

The biggest lesson from the crosstabs seems to be that even good pollsters flub once in awhile.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

579 as a sample size for Arizona and 613 for Florida?!

Throw this in the garbage disposal.

For a statewide live interviewer poll, those sample sizes seem completely standard and fine to me.

[SnowLabrador]

The race has tightened, just like Nate Bronze said it would.

[Gass3268]

Odd, throw them in the average. Other than the WI poll, these ABC/Washington Post polls have been all over the place.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Odd, throw them in the average. Other than the WI poll, these ABC/Washington Post polls have been all over the place.

The big concern for me is that the average in Florida is so close right now.  There are many, many polls showing an essentially even race there at the same time Biden leads by 7-8 points nationally.  Why had this state trended so dramatically right in the past couple years?

[Horus]

Odd, throw them in the average. Other than the WI poll, these ABC/Washington Post polls have been all over the place.

The big concern for me is that the average in Florida is so close right now.  There are many, many polls showing an essentially even race there at the same time Biden leads by 7-8 points nationally.  Why had this state trended so dramatically right in the past couple years?

Older Cubans really don't like Biden, a continued influx of white retirees, and the under discussed Haitian vote is not as monolithically Dem as AAs

[Sir Mohamed]

Crosstabs are little suspicious, especially for AZ. Throw it in the average, but majority of high quality polls show Biden with a lead in AZ and either tie or slight edge in FL, too.

AZ: Lean D -> Lean D
FL: Pure Tossup -> Pure Tossup

[morgieb]

Ooof. Probably an outlier, but WaPo can't purely be dismissed with a grain of salt.

[Person Man]

Odd, throw them in the average. Other than the WI poll, these ABC/Washington Post polls have been all over the place.

The big concern for me is that the average in Florida is so close right now.  There are many, many polls showing an essentially even race there at the same time Biden leads by 7-8 points nationally.  Why had this state trended so dramatically right in the past couple years?

Older Cubans really don't like Biden, a continued influx of white retirees, and the under discussed Haitian vote is not as monolithically Dem as AAs

Abortion?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We all know that Trump has a home in FL, he isn't gonna lose his home state of FL.

The battleground iin AZ, WI, NEB2 and ME2, and NC and GA can split their votes for Prez and Senate.  Cindy McCain endorsement will help Biden with suburbian voters in Manicopa, AZ

[Horus]

Odd, throw them in the average. Other than the WI poll, these ABC/Washington Post polls have been all over the place.

The big concern for me is that the average in Florida is so close right now.  There are many, many polls showing an essentially even race there at the same time Biden leads by 7-8 points nationally.  Why had this state trended so dramatically right in the past couple years?

Older Cubans really don't like Biden, a continued influx of white retirees, and the under discussed Haitian vote is not as monolithically Dem as AAs

Abortion?

That's certainly part of it I'm sure, Haitians are very socially conservative and heavily catholic.

[MT Treasurer]

Iowa is tied but Trump is ahead in AZ? I just don't buy that. We shall see if future polls confirm these results or not.

When has polling ever understated Republican strength in IA and Democratic strength in AZ?