AZ, FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +1%, Trump +4%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a22020StateBattlegrounds-FLAZ.pdf

September 15-20

AZ
579 likely voters
MoE among likely voters: 4.5%

Trump 49%
Biden 48%
Neither 2%
Other 0% (but some voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%

FL
613 likely voters
MoE among likely voters: 4.5%

Trump 51%
Biden 47%
Neither 1%
Other 0% (no voters)
Would not vote 0% (no voters)
No opinion 1%

[wbrocks67]

What in the world...

In Florida, Biden +1 among RVs, but Trump +4 among LV? There's a 5% shift in LV? And 3% LV shift in AZ?

EDIT: McSally winning suburban voters by 20%? Huh? Biden winning Indies by 20% in AZ but down in the overall LV race?

ABC/Wapo is well trusted, but these are just... odd

[Beet]

If Biden loses both FL and AZ there are no likely miracles coming in the other sunbelt states either. Then he is down to only 1 possible path to the WH. Win the PA-MI-WI trifecta. It will come down heavily to PA.

[Horus]

Never thought I'd say this but it looks like Georgia may be more likely to flip than Florida.

AZ looks like an outlier, I find it very hard to believe Kelly is only up one. Though of course if those numbers are corroborated Biden is in deep trouble.

[wbrocks67]

Never thought I'd say this but it looks like Georgia may be more likely to flip than Florida.

AZ looks like an outlier, I find it very hard to believe Kelly is only up one. Though of course if those numbers are corroborated Biden is in deep trouble.

I mean, the FL RV # of Biden +1 looks fine, but the LV # is wildly ridiculous.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Biden loses both FL and AZ there are no likely miracles coming in the other sunbelt states either. Then he is down to only 1 possible path to the WH. Win the PA-MI-WI trifecta. It will come down heavily to PA.

Rs need to forget PA, Trump got 3 percent from Gary Johnson to win MI, WI and PA, every poll shows Trump behind 5 points in PA and Clinton, Gore, Kerry and Obama won the state and Wolf won by 17 pts in 2018. Bloomberg spent money on Toomey in the PA Senate race in 2016

[roxas11]

the second I saw these kinds of results....
 
1. The coronavirus outbreak     =  Trump 45    Bidden 49
2. Is more honest and trustworthy =  Trump 43  Biden 46
3. Health care = Trump 45  Biden 50


I knew this poll was trash lol

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

the second I saw these kinds of results....
 
1. The coronavirus outbreak     =  Trump 45    Bidden 49
2. Is more honest and trustworthy =  Trump 43  Biden 46
3. Health care = Trump 45  Biden 50


I knew this poll was trash lol

The numbers are quite bullish on Trump (relative to other AZ polls), but the pollster is usually pretty high-quality. This might well be an outlier but it deserves a heavier weight than most of the polling coming out of AZ.

I'm glad they're not herding.

[wbrocks67]

Even Harry is skeptical

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1308718660882706432

[roxas11]

Another thing in the poll that stand out to me is this

Striking in Arizona is the result in Maricopa County, home to more than half the state’s likely
voters. In Maricopa’s cities, Biden leads by 61-35 percent; in the county but outside of its cities it’s a dead even 47-47 percent. It’s also a near-even race in and around Tucson, which Clinton
won in 2016. Those compare with 65 percent for Trump in the rest of the state.


honesty based on this and the fact that the have Biden winning by 19 points among independents
Im actually surprised they even gave Trump a lead in AZ at all

[wbrocks67]

Well, as much as the 16 pt Minnesota lead was likely an outlier, so are these.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What annoys me the most is that many pundits and journalists will latch onto these obvious outliers and use them as proof that RBG's death and the focus on SCOTUS helps Trump, like they did with the Kenosha protests.

[wbrocks67]

Given the weird LV screens, I think a major problem this year for pollsters is turnout and figuring out who's coming out to vote. Turnout is going to be sky high and I'm not necessarily convinced that the electorate can be properly predicted.

Like the FL poll clearly predicts that Democrats are going to have low, low turnout, which seems... unlikely

[Skye]

This thread will certainly contain measured responses.

[Person Man]

This thread will certainly contain measured responses.

Like this one-

Looks like people are doing very well in these states and selling their Chevies and buy Cadillacs! Abandoning Bowling for Golf! Cigarettes for Cigars! Beer for Champagne!

[Buzz]

THANK YOU!! The greatest of honors!!

On a more serious note, it’s a outlier for now.  The AZ number especially.   FL doesn’t surprise me, I still don’t buy Trump is gonna do significantly worse with 65+ then 2016.

[wbrocks67]

THANK YOU!! The greatest of honors!!

On a more serious note, it’s a outlier for now.  The AZ number especially.   FL doesn’t surprise me, I still don’t buy Trump is gonna do significantly worse with 65+ then 2016.

It also has Trump winning 18-49 year olds, a demographic that Clinton took by about 15% in 2016, so yeah... these crosstabs are very weird to say the least.

[ajc0918]

There is zero, and I mean zero, way the GOP gets a +5 turnout advantage in Florida.

Maybe 1-2% in a high GOP turnout model. That seems very skewed for Florida.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/peterschorschfl/status/1308737954513387522?s=21

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/peterschorschfl/status/1308737954513387522?s=21

I feel so god damn exhausted at the "Trump vs Biden supporter enthusiasm" question and why it's so flawed and yet pundits keep pushing it

[Buzz]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1308730492217430018?s=21

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1308730492217430018?s=21

So it's very clear a strict likely voter model is at play when it probably shouldn't be. Also, not surprising that Nate is defending it considering every single NYT/Siena poll has oddly had an R ID edge, for whatever reason, regardless of the end outcome.

[libertpaulian]

579 as a sample size for Arizona and 613 for Florida?!

Throw this in the garbage disposal.

[psychprofessor]

We are so used to seeing Biden leading in Arizona that a Trump +1 poll has everyone cooing over how great a poll it is for him.

[VAR]

Trump approval (RV)
FL 47/51 (-4)
AZ 47/51 (-4)