Probably still Likely Dem. The Illinois GOP is deeply unpopular.
People are moving out of IL to move to IN, AZ, FL and other places deemed "low-tax".
Rightists are saying "Don't come to our state with your policies". What do you think?
My understanding is that the people who leave Illinois are generally more conservative leaning? They tend to be older, homeowners, and fleeing suburban property taxes. They're not really Democratic voters.
Also Indiana's population growth has been very anemic. For all the talk of people and businesses leaving Illinois and moving to Indiana, most of them actually just move to the Sunbelt, is my impression. The tax advantages of living in Lake County, Indiana and commuting to Chicago were pretty much eliminated over the 2013 - 2018 period when the county introduced a county income tax, many municipalities voted in referendums to raise property taxes to fund schools, and the state raised all kinds of fees and excise taxes despite passing a small income tax cut. And the weather is still just as bad.
