Trump approval ratings thread 1.3

[KingSweden]

Rasmussen 4/4

Approve - 51 (+2)
Disapprove - 48 (-2)

I think there's an actual argument for taking Rasmussen out of the aggregators. They're aggressively tweeting at Trump, trying to get him to retweet their polls. That seems very fishy.

Yep, at the very least taking them out of our Atlas one.

[pbrower2a]

Rasmussen 4/4

Approve - 51 (+2)
Disapprove - 48 (-2)

I think there's an actual argument for taking Rasmussen out of the aggregators. They're aggressively tweeting at Trump, trying to get him to retweet their polls. That seems very fishy.

Everybody else has Trump approval in the high 30s or the low 40s now, based upon the screens of the polls.  Statewide polls are generally consistent with Trump approval  around 40% nationwide.  

[King Lear]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 51%
Disapproval: 48%
These are very solid numbers for Trump, from a pollster that accurately polled the 2016 election (most other pollsters can’t say that). This confirms my view that Trump is a solid favorite for Reelection, and Republicans are still favorites to hold the House and gain 4-7 Senate seats in the 2018 Midterms.

[MasterJedi]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 51%
Disapproval: 48%
These are very solid numbers for Trump, from a pollster that accurately polled the 2016 election (most other pollsters can’t say that). This confirms my view that Trump is a solid favorite for Reelection, and Republicans are still favorites to hold the House and gain 4-7 Senate seats in the 2018 Midterms.

lol!

[pbrower2a]

Latest Rasmussen Survey:
Approval: 51%
Disapproval: 48%
These are very solid numbers for Trump, from a pollster that accurately polled the 2016 election (most other pollsters can’t say that). This confirms my view that Trump is a solid favorite for Reelection, and Republicans are still favorites to hold the House and gain 4-7 Senate seats in the 2018 Midterms.

You are three days late for April Fool's  Day!

[BudgieForce]

You know, I'd like to give Rasmussen the benefit of the doubt and say they just have a messed up sample but the Tweeting/Retweeting really leads me to believe they know full well what they're doing. I fully expect their numbers to fall back into the average when election time comes around, because thats exactly what happened in 2016.

[Tender Branson]

Looking at the RCP average, polls using all adults seem to have lower approvals (38-40%) than those of registered voters only (42-45%), which of course is natural.

Likely voter polls like Rasmussen are totally meaningless right now (they are useful starting after August 2020).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It really doesn't matter about the approvals, Trump has an obstruction of justice impeachment case against him, going to the polls in Nov, and voters want justice to be served and they know in order to get that Nancy Pelosi and Schumer must be in leadership. That's why MS, TN and TX are close in the Senate right now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, April 1-3, 1500 adults

Approve 38 (-1)
Disapprove 52 (+3)

Strongly approve 20 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 40 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, March 29-April 1, 1997 RV

Approve 42 (nc)
Disapprove 54 (+1)

[King Lear]

It really doesn't matter about the approvals, Trump has an obstruction of justice impeachment case against him, going to the polls in Nov, and voters want justice to be served and they know in order to get that Nancy Pelosi and Schumer must be in leadership. That's why MS, TN and TX are close in the Senate right now.

You must be high, if you believe that Trump will be removed from office, because the best Democrats can realistically do this year is win a narrow House Majority (225-210 at most), and a narrow 51-49 Senate Majority (flipping Nevada and Arizona, while holding all their seats). This means for Trump to be removed from office, a whopping 16 Republican senators would have to vote to remove him (Assuming a Democratic House impeaches him and all 51 Democratic Senators vote to remove him). Honestly, can you name 16 Republican Senators that would vote to remove Donald Trump (if they would vote to remove him they would at the least face tough primary challenges, and at the worst face Death threats and assasination attempts from deranged White Nationalists and Christian Fundamentalists)?

[Progressive Pessimist]

It really doesn't matter about the approvals, Drumpf has an obstruction of justice impeachment case against him, going to the polls in Nov, and voters want justice to be served and they know in order to get that Nancy Pelosi and Schumer must be in leadership. That's why MS, TN and TX are close in the Senate right now.

You must be high, if you believe that Drumpf will be removed from office, because the best Democrats can realistically do this year is win a narrow House Majority (225-210 at most), and a narrow 51-49 Senate Majority (flipping Nevada and Arizona, while holding all their seats). This means for Drumpf to be removed from office, a whopping 16 Republican senators would have to vote to remove him (Assuming a Democratic House impeaches him and all 51 Democratic Senators vote to remove him). Honestly, can you name 16 Republican Senators that would vote to remove Donald Drumpf (if they would vote to remove him they would at the least face tough primary challenges, and at the worst face Death threats and assasination attempts from deranged White Nationalists and Christian Fundamentalists)?

King Lear speaks the cold, hard truth here.

[Hindsight was 2020]

It really doesn't matter about the approvals, Trump has an obstruction of justice impeachment case against him, going to the polls in Nov, and voters want justice to be served and they know in order to get that Nancy Pelosi and Schumer must be in leadership. That's why MS, TN and TX are close in the Senate right now.

You must be high, if you believe that Trump will be removed from office, because the best Democrats can realistically do this year is win a narrow House Majority (225-210 at most), and a narrow 51-49 Senate Majority (flipping Nevada and Arizona, while holding all their seats). This means for Trump to be removed from office, a whopping 16 Republican senators would have to vote to remove him (Assuming a Democratic House impeaches him and all 51 Democratic Senators vote to remove him). Honestly, can you name 16 Republican Senators that would vote to remove Donald Trump (if they would vote to remove him they would at the least face tough primary challenges, and at the worst face Death threats and assasination attempts from deranged White Nationalists and Christian Fundamentalists)?

Well thank god come January 2019 the dems will actually be holding a 251-184 hold on the house and a 53-47 senate

[Virginiá]

King Lear's semi-reasonable numbers obscure the fact that in his mind, it is impossible for Democrats to even come close to them despite being a theoretical maximum*

* that is, if he even believes his own act, which is hardly a given

[UncleSam]

I mean Rasmussen is probably just using a 2014 turnout model in 2018 lol

Obviously Trump's approval will be higher among RV than among adults, frankly ones polling adults are basically garbage since the population of 'adults' decides absolutely nothing in this country. LV is ultimately all that matters but we don't have a good sense yet of actual LV, so RV is quite reasonable as of now.

In any case, fluctuations up and down don't really mean a whole lot on a day to day basis. It'll be more important where he is in the fall when these things actually start to shape the races.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult 50-state approval tracker, March 1-31, 97,693 RV

https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/05/trumps-monthly-approval-rating-hits-record-low-in-march/

Overall: 41/54, which is a record low for this poll.

There is state-level data at https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  I know what pbrower2a will be doing today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult 50-state approval tracker, March 1-31, 97,693 RV

https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/05/trumps-monthly-approval-rating-hits-record-low-in-march/

Overall: 41/54, which is a record low for this poll.

There is state-level data at https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  I know what pbrower2a will be doing today.

Some notable state results (comparison to January 2017 numbers):

AZ 48/49 (55/35)
CO 41/56 (45/44)
FL 48/48 (56/34)
IA 43/53 (49/40)
ME 42/54 (48/40)
MI 41/55 (48/40)
NH 43/54 (45/44)
NV 45/51 (49/39)
OH 46/50 (51/37)
PA 44/52 (49/39)
TX 50/46 (54/34)
VA 43/52 (49/41)
WI 42/54 (47/41)

[KingSweden]

Inb4 King Lear tells us these are great numbers for Trumo

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Rasmussen:

Approve: 47% (-4)
Disapprove: 51% (+3)

Strongly Approve: 30% (-3)
Strongly Disapprove: 41% (+3)

[Inmate Trump]

Morning Consult 50-state approval tracker, March 1-31, 97,693 RV

https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/05/trumps-monthly-approval-rating-hits-record-low-in-march/

Overall: 41/54, which is a record low for this poll.

There is state-level data at https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  I know what pbrower2a will be doing today.

Some notable state results (comparison to January 2017 numbers):

AZ 48/49 (55/35)
CO 41/56 (45/44)
FL 48/48 (56/34)
IA 43/53 (49/40)
ME 42/54 (48/40)
MI 41/55 (48/40)
NH 43/54 (45/44)
NV 45/51 (49/39)
OH 46/50 (51/37)
PA 44/52 (49/39)
TX 50/46 (54/34)
VA 43/52 (49/41)
WI 42/54 (47/41)

I also find these states polls interesting....

IN 48/47 (55/33)
KS 48/47 (56/32)
UT 45/51 (58/31)

I don't think any of these three will flip in 2020, especially not Kansas or Utah...but it's still fun seeing him dip so low there.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Morning consult continues to underpoll miniorities lol

Kansas at +1 but Georgia at +5

yeahhhh sure jan

[KingSweden]

Rasmussen:

Approve: 47% (-4)
Disapprove: 51% (+3)

Strongly Approve: 30% (-3)
Strongly Disapprove: 41% (+3)

And this is why we should ignore Rassy - that kind of swing in *one day* is not believable

[GeorgiaModerate]

Rasmussen:

Approve: 47% (-4)
Disapprove: 51% (+3)

Strongly Approve: 30% (-3)
Strongly Disapprove: 41% (+3)

And this is why we should ignore Rassy - that kind of swing in *one day* is not believable

They use a rolling average (5 days, I think).  This kind of swing could be an extreme outlier sample dropping in or out.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Handy reference:

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[Gass3268]

Morning Consult 50-state approval tracker, March 1-31, 97,693 RV

https://morningconsult.com/2018/04/05/trumps-monthly-approval-rating-hits-record-low-in-march/

Overall: 41/54, which is a record low for this poll.

There is state-level data at https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/.  I know what pbrower2a will be doing today.