Official Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Discussion Thread

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama should win Philly, Montgomery, Centre and Delaware. Other ones to watch:

Dauphin (rural and mostly favorable to Hillary, but relatively high black population. If Hillary wins by double digits she'll win it but if she doesn't win it, she's probably not getting a landslide.)
Allegheny (good bellwether)
Bucks (another good bellwether, and a sign of how effective Obama has been at re-registering Republicans and independents. If he wins it by a decent margin the campaign has been very successful.)
Chester (A sign of if the Democrats here are as affluent as the county at large. Same thing about re-registration I said about Bucks too.)
Lancaster (Should be interesting. Can't make any predictions other than saying that. Thought of as conservative, but look at the 2002 Gubernatorial primary and 2006 Senate results...)

[J. J.]

JJ, can you or one of the other Pennsylvania posters give me a list of counties you expect Obama to carry and maybe some he might carry.  I'm a total novice when it comes to your state and would like to have something to go by when the returns start coming in Tuesday night.

Thanks in advance.

"Might" would include, in this order:

1.  Montgomery County.
2.  Delaware County (especially the PA-1 Sections).
3.  Centre.
4.  Dauphin.
5.  Allegheny.

If I had to bet, Montco and Delco (but not PA-7).  Allegheny has several disadvantages, high white Catholic, high Jewish, populations, large percentage of gun ownership.  Centre has Penn State, but it's surrounded by rather conservative Democrats.  Dauphin has very high percentage of government employees.

In reality I'd look at CD's and I expect a victory in CD's 1, 2, 13, 14.  I would almost say that would be the order.  I don't expect a huge Obama victory in 2 or 13, and there is an outside chance that PA 2 will be his only win.  In a few districts, e.g. PA-12, I could see Obama gaining only 1 delegate to Clinton's 4.

I was in Chester County this weekend and I don't see an Obama victory.

[Sam Spade]

Does this friend in PA-01 live in the black areas, the white areas or the Hispanic areas?

[Keystone Phil]

Obama's rally in Philly on Friday was the biggest of his campaign - 30,000 people in attendance. And to think that I was considering going down...

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Obama's rally in Philly on Friday was the biggest of his campaign - 30,000 people in attendance. And to think that I was considering going down...

I will go see him here if he comes to the Triangle area. I'm hoping he holds a rally in the Dean Dome. I want to faint and feel the power of change in my life!

[J. J.]

Does this friend in PA-01 live in the black areas, the white areas or the Hispanic areas?

Here is ZIP Code Demographics:

Hispanic/Latino:  18.8%
White*:  49.4%
Black*:  25.2%

Majority-minority.

My ZIP is:

Hispanic/Latino:  34.5%
White*:  3.9%
Black*:  58.9%

The White/Black excludes Latinos.

As for the rally, the local news interviewed one of the people that came in from NYC.

[Sam Spade]

So, in other words, not the greatest area for him, but a place he shouldn't be ignoring, presuming of course, that your friend is black and Democrat...

[J. J.]

So, in other words, not the greatest area for him, but a place he shouldn't be ignoring, presuming of course, that your friend is black and Democrat...

Yes, one of the better areas in PA-1, and she is a black Democrat that usually votes.

[MaxQue]

Which hour polling places close tomorrow?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Which hour polling places close tomorrow?

7PM EDT.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Which hour polling places close tomorrow?

7PM EDT.

In Allegheny County it's 8:00PM

http://www.county.allegheny.pa.us/elect/cal.aspx

[Alcon]

I thought I'd share this



h/t: fivethirtyeight.com

[Torie]

That's most excellent Alcon. That made my day.

[J. J.]

Polls close at 8:00 PM across the state.

I was in Media, Delaware County (PA-7) and saw people at a street corner having a rally for Clinton; they were just standing and cheering with signs.

[Democratic Hawk]

What's the weather forecast?

[Verily]

What's the weather forecast?

72 F and partly cloudy in Philadelphia, 71 F and mostly sunny in Pittsburgh, 69 F and partly cloudy in Harrisburg, 70 F and partly cloudy in Scranton, 68 F and sunny in Erie. Generally looks like a gorgeous day.

[Speed of Sound]

What's the weather forecast?

Barring a strong turn north of a storm in VA, it should be clear and in the 60s all across the state. Theres no reason weather should play a role in this one.

[Democratic Hawk]

Am I right in thinking that Philly and its suburban counties tend to report earlier than the rest of the state?

Dave

[Speed of Sound]

Am I right in thinking that Philly and its suburban counties tend to report earlier than the rest of the state?

Dave

Oh Im fairly sure of that. We should know whats up here in Berks well before we know how it went in Centre County.

[Torie]

Am I right in thinking that Philly and its suburban counties tend to report earlier than the rest of the state?

Dave

Ya, Pennsylvania runs up positively frightening large Dem majorities on general election night, before things start to erode back down.

[Keystone Phil]

Am I right in thinking that Philly and its suburban counties tend to report earlier than the rest of the state?

Dave

As others have said, yes, this is the case so don't start thinking Obama won big around 8:45 tomorrow night.

[bullmoose88]

Am I right in thinking that Philly and its suburban counties tend to report earlier than the rest of the state?

Dave

As others have said, yes, this is the case so don't start thinking Obama won big around 8:45 tomorrow night.

Unless the margins in SEPA are bigger than we all expect. If they exist at all.

[Keystone Phil]

Only Catherine Baker Knoll. I love this woman - http://www.postgazette.com/downloads/20080421BakerKnollWeb.mp3

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Am I right in thinking that Philly and its suburban counties tend to report earlier than the rest of the state?

Dave

Ya, Pennsylvania runs up positively frightening large Dem majorities on general election night, before things start to erode back down.

Yep. I remember during the 2004 election, Kerry jumped out with a 61-38% lead and the networks quickly called it, but then it came back down to a 51-49 tally.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

So how soon after 8PM will the networks call it for the Beast?