Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/1576701179555635200

I almost think this guy is reading the thread lol

He absolutely does, he copied several posts of mine on previous elections. I don't mind though.

Imitation of the best form of flattery.

[DavidB.]

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1576694090061991937

Lula averaging 19.5% better than Haddad in 2018, Bolsonaro 0.5% worse based on 24% reported results.

https://twitter.com/Libnex2/status/1576701190137839616

"btw it's not true that Lula is losing ground in historic left-wing WWC strongholds, he is improving a lot in both places"

He says "I don't think so" when asked if he thinks Lula can avoid a run off in the replies

[jaichind]

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more friendly towards Russia than Bolsonaro?

I think Bolsonaro ended up being more pro-Russia than expected so I assume Russia's policy does not change.  Bolsonaro and Lula might be pro-Russia for different reasons but the net policy is the same.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Comparing what's been counted so far with the 2018 results the pattern seems to be that Bolsonaro is doing slightly better or even in the Northwest and Northeast but slightly worse in the Southeast and Midwest. However, Lula consolidated the vast majority of the non-Bolsonaro 2018 vote. Some examples:

Acre (Northwest), 72% counted
2018: Bolsonaro 62.2%, Haddad 18.5%
2022: Bolsonaro 61.9%, Lula 29.6%

Roraima (Northwest), 55% counted
2018: Bolsonaro 63.0%, Haddad 17.5%
2022: Bolsonaro 69.6%, Lula 23.0%

Mato Grosso do Sul (Midwest), 91% counted
2018: Bolsonaro 55.1%, Haddad 23.9%
2022: Bolsonaro 53.6%, Lula 38.1%

Paraná (Southeast), 72% counted
2018: Bolsonaro 56.9%, Haddad 19.7%
2022: Bolsonaro 53.6%, Lula 35.4%

Espírito Santo (Southeast), 94% counted
2018: Bolsonaro 54.8%, Haddad 24.2%
2022: Bolsonaro 52.2%, Lula 40.4%

Sergipe (Northeast), 58% counted
2018: Bolsonaro 27.2%, Haddad 50.1%
2022: Bolsonaro 31.4%, Lula 60.6%

Piauí (Northeast), 48% counted
2018: Bolsonaro 18.8%, Haddad 63.4%
2022: Bolsonaro 22.1%, Lula 71.6%

Lula should still win comfortably with how much outstanding vote there is in the Northeast but it looks like Bolsonaro's pandering somewhat paid off and will keep him in the runoff.

[Red Velvet]

46,46% counted

Bolsonaro 46,69%
Lula 44,47%

Lula will win since it’s mostly Northeastern vote to come in but I don’t think it will reach 50% and Bolsonaro won’t fall below 40% like polls pointed. Bolsonaro candidates (ex: Damares in DF senate wasn’t expected to win) overperformance is also something that hints Bolsonaro doing better than expected as well.

Could end up being something around Lula 48% and Bolsonaro 42% maybe, more or less. So it’s going to a runoff.

[CookieDamage]

https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1576694090061991937

Lula averaging 19.5% better than Haddad in 2018, Bolsonaro 0.5% worse based on 24% reported results.

https://twitter.com/Libnex2/status/1576701190137839616

"btw it's not true that Lula is losing ground in historic left-wing WWC strongholds, he is improving a lot in both places"

He says "I don't think so" when asked if he thinks Lula can avoid a run off in the replies

> using WWC
> Brazil

[Хahar 🤔]

https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1576694090061991937

Lula averaging 19.5% better than Haddad in 2018, Bolsonaro 0.5% worse based on 24% reported results.

https://twitter.com/Libnex2/status/1576701190137839616

"btw it's not true that Lula is losing ground in historic left-wing WWC strongholds, he is improving a lot in both places"

He says "I don't think so" when asked if he thinks Lula can avoid a run off in the replies

You have to have real brain damage to say "WWC" when talking about an election in Brazil.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

Nope:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-says-zelenskiy-as-responsible-putin-ukraine-war-2022-05-04/

[Adam Griffin]

52.21% reporting
46.31% - 27737249 - Bolsonaro (+1.45)
44.86% - 26873309 - Lula

Roughly 35% of Bolsonaro's margin closed by Lula out of 10% of the outstanding vote (measured from 46.x% to 52.2% reporting).

[BigSerg]

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

Fortunately not and that is why I support Lula in these elections.

[H. Ross Peron]

this is another Trump 2016
the polls got it wrong again, at least it will be 2% margin of victory, not 13% ridiculousnless

You two really should get a room in a love hotel.

[brucejoel99]

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

Bolsonaro visited Putin just a few days before the invasion while Lula at least tried both sides-ing the war, so not really, no.

[omar04]

https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1576694090061991937

Lula averaging 19.5% better than Haddad in 2018, Bolsonaro 0.5% worse based on 24% reported results.

https://twitter.com/Libnex2/status/1576701190137839616

"btw it's not true that Lula is losing ground in historic left-wing WWC strongholds, he is improving a lot in both places"

He says "I don't think so" when asked if he thinks Lula can avoid a run off in the replies

> using WWC
> Brazil

https://twitter.com/OwenWntr/status/1576694090061991937

Lula averaging 19.5% better than Haddad in 2018, Bolsonaro 0.5% worse based on 24% reported results.

https://twitter.com/Libnex2/status/1576701190137839616

"btw it's not true that Lula is losing ground in historic left-wing WWC strongholds, he is improving a lot in both places"

He says "I don't think so" when asked if he thinks Lula can avoid a run off in the replies

You have to have real brain damage to say "WWC" when talking about an election in Brazil.

He meant WC, Libnex2 is a Brazilian.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

52.21% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 27,737,249 (46.31%)
LULA- 26,873,309 (44.86%)

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

Despite being elected in the early 2000s pink wave, Lula isn't actually as anti-American as his counterparts. He was friends with both Obama and Bush.

[Duke of York]

46,46% counted

Bolsonaro 46,69%
Lula 44,47%

Lula will win since it’s mostly Northeastern vote to come in but I don’t think it will reach 50% and Bolsonaro won’t fall below 40% like polls pointed. Bolsonaro candidates (ex: Damares in DF senate wasn’t expected to win) overperformance is also something that hints Bolsonaro doing better than expected as well.

Could end up being something around Lula 48% and Bolsonaro 42% maybe, more or less. So it’s going to a runoff.

if it goes to runoff I expect Lula to win but it will be very ugly.

[Frodo]

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

Nope:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-says-zelenskiy-as-responsible-putin-ukraine-war-2022-05-04/

The preservation of (what is left of) the Amazon rainforest is a higher priority to me in this election than their stances on Ukraine in any case.  

[jaichind]

bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

Very unlikely.  He is at 47.17% now and most likely 46.5% by 50% of votes counted.  That means he will be around 43.5% at the end.  He outperformed polls but 43.5% in the first round means defeat in the second round.

At 52% of the vote counted  Bolsonaro is at 46.3% which is a bit lower than I had guessed.  My next guess is that based on historical patterns he will be at 43.3% at the end.

If so it should be

Lula         48.0%
Bolsonaro 43.3%

For first round

[Horus]

Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula seem to care about Ukraine very much. And why should they? They're not in NATO and it's on the other side of the planet. Brazil has about 1,000 bigger fish to fry.

[Pivaru]

A bit more than 50% of the vote counted in São Paulo.

Tarcisio (Bolsonaro's candidate) is leading with 43,8%, Haddad (Lula's candidate) is in second with 34,2%, the incumbent governor, Rodrigo Garcia, from PSDB, has 18,5%. It seems this really is the end of PSDB's dominance in São Paulo and their role as a major party, they really have been demoted to the status of one more "centrão" party.

In the senate, Bolsonaro's candidate, Marcos Pontes, has 51,7% and the second place is Marcio França, Lula's candidate and former governor, with 34,5%.

The bolsonaristas are overperforming in the statewide races here

[Duke of York]

bolsonaro is the favorite now surely

Very unlikely.  He is at 47.17% now and most likely 46.5% by 50% of votes counted.  That means he will be around 43.5% at the end.  He outperformed polls but 43.5% in the first round means defeat in the second round.

At 52% of the vote counted  Bolsonaro is at 46.3% which is a bit lower than I had guessed.  My next guess is that based on historical patterns he will be at 43.3% at the end.

If so it should be

Lula         48.0%
Bolsonaro 43.3%

For first round

I hope there is no runoff but it seems unlikely at this point.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

54.59% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 29,079,829 (46.31%)
LULA- 28,175,139 (44.87%)

Ballsonaro lead down to ~4% in Amazonas with 64.3% in. Probably on track to win at this rate but still too early.

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

Nope:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-says-zelenskiy-as-responsible-putin-ukraine-war-2022-05-04/

The preservation of (what is left of) the Amazon rainforest is a higher priority to me in this election than their stances on Ukraine in any case.  

The Amazon issue is so important that this is the first election I've ever supported a socialist, and not just weakly a la 'lesser of two evils' but strongly.

Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula seem to care about Ukraine very much. And why should they? They're not in NATO and it's on the other side of the planet. Brazil has about 1,000 bigger fish to fry.

1,000 bigger forests to fry.

[Duke of York]

54.59% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 29,079,829 (46.31%)
LULA- 28,175,139 (44.87%)

Ballsonaro lead down to ~4% in Amazonas with 64.3% in. Probably on track to win at this rate but still too early.

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

Nope:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-says-zelenskiy-as-responsible-putin-ukraine-war-2022-05-04/

The preservation of (what is left of) the Amazon rainforest is a higher priority to me in this election than their stances on Ukraine in any case.  

The Amazon issue is so important that this is the first election I've ever supported a socialist, and not just weakly a la 'lesser of two evils' but strongly.

Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula seem to care about Ukraine very much. And why should they? They're not in NATO and it's on the other side of the planet. Brazil has about 1,000 bigger fish to fry.

1,000 bigger forests to fry.

who is on track to win? and win without a runoff?

[Pivaru]

In Espirito Santo there'll be a second round between Renato Casagrande (PSB) and Carlos Manato (PL).

Casagrande 47,1%
Manato 38,5%

Pre-election polls were showing Casagrande with almost 60% of the vote, quite the underperformance.

Bolsonaro's ally, Magno Malta, is leading in the senate, he seems very likely to win here unfortunately.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

54.59% Reporting

BOLSONARO- 29,079,829 (46.31%)
LULA- 28,175,139 (44.87%)

Ballsonaro lead down to ~4% in Amazonas with 64.3% in. Probably on track to win at this rate but still too early.

Haven't been following this, but I assume Lula can be expected to be more pro-Russia than Bolsonaro?

Nope:

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-lula-says-zelenskiy-as-responsible-putin-ukraine-war-2022-05-04/

The preservation of (what is left of) the Amazon rainforest is a higher priority to me in this election than their stances on Ukraine in any case.  

The Amazon issue is so important that this is the first election I've ever supported a socialist, and not just weakly a la 'lesser of two evils' but strongly.

Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula seem to care about Ukraine very much. And why should they? They're not in NATO and it's on the other side of the planet. Brazil has about 1,000 bigger fish to fry.

1,000 bigger forests to fry.

who is on track to win? and win without a runoff?

Lula on track to win the first round but not likely to avoid a runoff.