Will an Establishment or Insurgent candidate be nominated by the GOP?

[Mister Mets]

There's a better chance of an insurgent than at any point before. The most talented establishment candidates have serious issues (Christie's under investigation, Jeb's a Bush) and the Insurgent bench is stronger than at any point before (Cruz and Rand Paul are better politicians than Michelle Bachmann, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum.)

However, I'd still gives the edge to the establishment.

The insurgents are likely to be divided. Rand Paul will probably get some support, but he disagrees with the party on too many key issues to get a coronation from the famously divided tea party.

There are more potential candidates in the establishment, and party actors are more disciplined in determining that it's time to unite behind a clear winner.

[Mister Mets]

One problem with Insurgents is that the grassroots will have different ideas on who the best candidates are. If Huckabee, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz all run they'll have appeal to different segments of the party. For much of the race, each is likely to have a floor, but that comes with a ceiling.

The establishment is likely to coalesce around whoever is doing better in the early primaries among the candidates who are broadly acceptable to them.

The nominee in 2016 will be another establishment candidate.

The establishment of the party, represented by folks like Romney, Rove, and the Bush family, are still searching for a suitable candidate. Meanwhile, the Jim DeMint-wing of the party is flush with money from the Heritage Foundation and Sheldon Adelson (among others) to mount a serious "outsider" candidacy. Is this the year that an insurgent candidate breaks the cycle, or will the 2016 be another coronation process?

Adelson learned from his mistake and is looking to finance someone from the establishment who has a chance of winning, somebody like Bush, Christie, Walker, etc.

Adelson also saw Gingrich as establishment enough, due to his previous experience as Speaker of the House. Gingrich wasn't Herman Cain as much as he pretended otherwise.

[Mister Mets]

One problem with Insurgents is that the grassroots will have different ideas on who the best candidates are. If Huckabee, Rand Paul and Ted Cruz all run they'll have appeal to different segments of the party. For much of the race, each is likely to have a floor, but that comes with a ceiling.

The establishment is likely to coalesce around whoever is doing better in the early primaries among the candidates who are broadly acceptable to them.

The nominee in 2016 will be another establishment candidate.

The establishment of the party, represented by folks like Romney, Rove, and the Bush family, are still searching for a suitable candidate. Meanwhile, the Jim DeMint-wing of the party is flush with money from the Heritage Foundation and Sheldon Adelson (among others) to mount a serious "outsider" candidacy. Is this the year that an insurgent candidate breaks the cycle, or will the 2016 be another coronation process?

Adelson learned from his mistake and is looking to finance someone from the establishment who has a chance of winning, somebody like Bush, Christie, Walker, etc.

Adelson also saw Gingrich as establishment enough, due to his previous experience as Speaker of the House. Gingrich wasn't Herman Cain as much as he pretended otherwise.

You're missing the point that he has obviously learned from that mistake. He invited Bush, Christie, Kasich and Walker to meet him at his hotel, all of whom are both establishment and reasonably electable compared to Gingrich.

I got that.

I was also noting that last time around he supported a former congressional leader. We shouldn't assume that he'll back Ben Carson or Rand Paul next time around.

[Mister Mets]

Who was the front-runner initially? Reagan or Bush?

Reagan dominated early polling, so he stayed the frontrunner.

Bush got to second place (and a handful of first place finishes) by being accessible at early cattle call events. But three years before the election he was probably a non-entity.

Early in the race Howard Baker (Senate Minority Leader) was probably Reagan's top opponent.