KY-Mason Dixon: Bevin Trails by 8

[Don Vito Corleone]

Highly interesting, and makes sense, the best predictor of performance is approvals, and, well, Bevin doesnt have the greatest.

Of course, you cant take these polls at face value until around October, but still, kinda interesting.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Wow a Trump+30 and 49% white evangelical state that’s not tuned into an election yet and is filled with registered Trump Dems gave a popular state name Democrat 48% in a poll 11 months out.

Atlas: tossup Dems can win everywhere!

Timmy, the vast majority of people on this thread (including me) are saying Bevin is favoured.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Really difficult to say this far out, seems like this election (if it becomes nationalized as everything has since 2016) could end up being dissatisfaction over the budget and pensions (recall that Bevin has slashed teacher benefits and has also substantially slashed healthcare) vs "loyalty to Donald Trump". Perhaps people will finally be fed up over all of these budget cuts of which I am not sure Kentucky has seen in a long time, or polarization has finally reached a point where even gubernatorial races are pulled in on how the President is doing in a State.

Gov. Edmondson can attest to the fact that polarization doesn't matter in gubernatorial races and that local issues matter most. That's what Atlas told me when I was continually mocked for calling that race safe R.

Please stop acting like you alone were the one person who thought Republicans were going to win that race. That isn't true and you damn well know it.