NH-SEN 2022 Megathread: General Dysfunction

[MATTROSE94]

Well, it wouldn't be the first time Trump gets Democrats a candidate much easier to defeat. Go ahead, God Emperor!

Chris Sununu is pretty Trumpy and does have the backing of Mitch McConnell and Rick Scott unfortunately. I expect him and Adam Laxalt to both win fairly easily (probably by around 5-10%) in the general election.

[MATTROSE94]

Hassan trailed Ayotte until Election day and she won on Election night, I expected Hassan to lose but put it on my 2016 map as a Hassan to win

NH is elastic that way, same with NV Jacky Rosen and SISOLAK were trailing Heller and Laxalt until they won on Election night, that's that why CCM maybe trailing but they're not down by 9 pts most is 3(5 pts

We need another poll, all the other polls showed not nine pts on NH, but 3/5 pt leads for SUNUNU, that nine pt poll was inflated

Go back over the polls in the database you're gonna see Ayotte leading Hassan and she won Election night, I expect Hassan to win and replicate the 304 blue wall

Maggie Hassan ain’t winning reelection. Even if 2022 was a Trump midterm, both she and Catherine Cortez Masto would have been obliterated by Chris Sununu and Adam Laxalt.

[MATTROSE94]

Trump likes winning but also it's possible Sununu is not willing to go MAGA Trump, since he knows that would be death in NH. Trump might realize/know this and not be interested in anointing him then.

Chris Sununu is sufficient Trumpy and does support the Big Lie. Additionally, Chris Sununu has the backing of Mitch McConnell and Rick Scott as well.

[MATTROSE94]

I am shocked, though maybe instead Chris Sununu wants to remain in office and eventually become the longest serving governor in US history. I guess Adam Laxalt is now the most likely new Republican Senator in 2022. 

[MATTROSE94]

lmao Republicans may very well have dodged a bullet here. I've been saying for months that Smith is the only candidate who has a chance of beating Hassan. If the conservatives coalesce around him he wins.

Chuck Morse I think likely wins by around 1 or 2%. He is a MAGA guy overall, but has a lot of political experience in New Hampshire and an inspiring life story.

[MATTROSE94]

lmao Republicans may very well have dodged a bullet here. I've been saying for months that Smith is the only candidate who has a chance of beating Hassan. If the conservatives coalesce around him he wins.

Chuck Morse I think likely wins by around 1 or 2%. He is a MAGA guy overall, but has a lot of political experience in New Hampshire and an inspiring life story.

Morse is very, very swampy and more of an older-style Republican than anything. He's a MAGA guy in the same way that Sununu is, but doesn't have anywhere near the skills to set himself apart.

Unlike Smith and Bolduc he's on the record, as Senate President, passing an abortion ban. Maybe it won't kill Sununu's campaign but I think it could be enough to shift votes to Hassan.

I think the midterm environment will be enough to push Chuck Morse over the top. Mitch McConnell and Rick Scott endorsed him as well, so he will be getting a lot of campaign dollars as well.

[MATTROSE94]

A problem for Morse and undecideds is that there is absolutely nothing interesting or appealing about him whatsoever.   He's just a bland, generic Establishment Republican without any redeeming qualities at all.  Voters this cycle haven't been very found of candidates of his profile so far.  He's not all that charismatic when listening to him talk either.

He can gain more support with higher name recognition but he's going to hit a ceiling at some point or another.  The question is if the ceiling is higher than Bolduc's floor.

The biggest threat to Morse might be Smith coming up and splitting the establishment vote with him.  If Smith gets into the double digits I think Bolduc is almost guaranteed to win.

Would Don Bolduc have a chance at winning if he gets through the primary or no? My gut feeling is that he would lose by a Richard Swett 1996 style margin, but I am not too sure. I think that Chuck Morse would easily win by a Warren Rudman 1980 style margin, as he is heavily backed by Mitch McConnell and Rick Scott and is reminiscent of the old Reagan era Republican Party (even though he is an election denier and strong Donald Trump supporter).