Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[lilTommy]

I can see the NDP moving into Third if Wildrose does better then expected or Official Opposition if Wildrose tanks.
The NDP was a head in Edmonton from Polling I saw, and I think the party has a strong shot at two seats outside of Edmonton if they perform well (Joe Ceci in Calgary Fort and Shannon Phillips in Lethbridge West)

PCs 31 %
Wildrose 27 %
NDP 22 %
Liberals 14 %
Alberta Party 2 %
Other 5 %

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/wildrose-growing-support-in-alberta-polls-as-battle-against-governing-tories-looms

http://daveberta.ca/ - my go-to for Alberta Politics

[lilTommy]

In even more surprising news, 1abvote believes the NDP are actually leading:

http://1abvote.ca/poll-pcs-drop-to-3rd-as-writ-props/

29% NDP
24% Wildrose
23% PC
15% Liberal
9% Alberta

1abvote doesn't seem like a reliable polling outfit, though. It admits "IT IS LIKELY THAT GOOGLE SURVEYS (its method of polling) MAY HAVE SLIGHT LEFT SKEW IN ALBERTA".

They also say than the phone polls skew right and than the truth is "in the middle". Wierd, but really, I don'y any reason to trust either them or the real pollsters, given the last election polling.

Also, if this poll is heavily centered in Edmonton, this is likely accurate as the NDP have been polling ahead or tied in the capital for a few months now I believe.

[lilTommy]

Another poll is out from Mainstreet Technologies - this one is IVR while ThinkHQ was online - results are almost identical. Among decided voters:

Wildrose - 31%
PC - 27%
NDP - 26%
Liberals - 12%
AP - 3%

In Edmongton the NDP is at an eye-popping 52% - 31 points ahead of the PCs!!
http://www.mainstreettechnologies.ca/wildrose-leads-ndp-gains/

At 52% in Edmonton for the NDP, even Laurie Blakeman has to be worried! I still think she will be the only Liberal MLA left after the election.

Lets all remember the last Alberta election polling though... this does look like a strong overall trend for the NDP but the PCs are probably polling lower then they will actually end up with, Wildrose higher.

[lilTommy]

Are there any potential NDP targets outside of Edmonton (except Lethbridge West and *maybe* Calgary-Fort) ?

The NDP polled above their province wide vote (9%) in 2012 in (all above 10%):

Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater
Wetaskiwin-Camrose
Lethbridge East

I'm sure the NDP would love to win Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley (just over 9% mostly for the name, since the riding is named after NDP leader Rachel Notley's father who represented the area)

The NDP themselves have mentioned Calgary Varsity and Calgary McCall
http://www.660news.com/2015/04/08/ndp-hold-rally-in-inner-city-riding-thats-standing-room-only/

I think it will come down to candidates as well, if there is a strong NDP candidate that might help.

in Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater the NDP is running Colin Piquette, son of former NDP MLA Leo Piquette... so maybe?

[lilTommy]

Laurie Blakeman had a chance to join the Alberta NDP when Notley became leader and she refused...now I'll bet she is kicking herself. With numbers like this she could easily be swept away as the "Orange Crush" flushes away all others in Edmonton - Quebec 2011-style!

But would the NDP have these numbers without Notley?

Probably not; but even before she won the leadership the NDP was polling well, 18-20+ in Edmonton so they were bound to do better then 2012 even if Mason had stayed but not as well as they are now in a perfect storm situation for the NDP (very weak Liberal party, popular and strong leader, divided right-wing)

[lilTommy]

My hastily whipped up model (guaranteed wrong or your money back) has them taking 4 Calgary seats, Athabasca and both seats in each of Lethbridge and Red Deer.

... everything but Red Deer feels plausible to me, if they poll this well come election day

[lilTommy]

New 1 Question Poll (for what it's worth)

NDP: 32%
Wildrose: 28%
PC: 19%
Lib: 12%
AB: 9%

Regional breakdowns

Edmonton

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 17%
Lib: 11%
AB: 5%

Calgary

NDP: 26%
Wildrose: 26%
PC: 23%
Lib: 16%
AB: 8%

Rest of Alberta

Wildrose: 33%
NDP: 27%
PC: 17%
AB: 13%
Lib: 10%

lol...

There are so many problems with this...I don't even know where to begin.

I think the polster admits they sku left, but look up at the forum poll; 32% vs 28% That's not that far off, I still believe the NDP will poll above 20%, 32% is minority government territory and Albertan's would have to be RIGHT PEEVED off to swing from PC to NDP

[lilTommy]

Alberta Liberal voters overwhelmingly have NDP as their second choice...so do a surprising number of Wildrose voters

How many Liberal voters live in rural ridings where the race is PC vs WR though? Any chance of tactical voting swinging a couple ridings?

You need to go back to 1993 to see where the Liberals won solely rural seats (97' they held like rural/suburban seats like Spruce Grove - St.Albert), I believe they held 7 rural districts. One, West Yellowhead is interesting as it went NDP in the late 80's then Liberal in the 90's. 

[lilTommy]

Most Liberals will vote PC in a PC vs. Wildrose race. That much is obvious, isn't it? If they can't stand Prentice, they'll stay home or vote NDP / AP / Green

My instinct is PC voters, who are probably the bulk of the undecideds, will also probably just stay home at this rate, the base looks to be 25% that would be the worst I think for the PC vote... the rest is fluid and will likely just not vote. I do think some will go Wildrose to stop the NDP, and others will go NDP to stop Wildrose which was already mentioned.

[lilTommy]

How do you plan to distribute the Liberal and AB vote when they inevitably fail to nominate candidates in about half the ridings? If the Liberals are polling at ~12% then around 4% of that will have no Liberal candidate to vote for!

If the Liberals are still polling at 12% after the candidate deadline, and they're only running in half of the ridings, then I would expect a sudden surge in my model in every seat the Liberals are running in. One would *hope* that a respondent wouldn't tell a pollster they're voting Liberal if they do not have a Liberal candidate to vote for.

Most people aren't that observant... I suspect the'd only find out at the polling booth if they are a voter but rather disengaged. Or will find out when no liberal signs or mail comes to their door.

I think the Liberal vote will go NDP in Edmonton, it looks to be trending that way (except for Edmonton Centre possibly, where Blakeman on her own popularity will likely be the only Liberal standing... if she's lucky) But Calgary, its a toss up for me; the PCs seem to be toxic but quietly i think Calgary Liberals and AP might be more inclined to vote PC, the vote might swing NDP if the NDP numbers continue to be this strong. I say that as i believe Liberals and AP would much rather see the NDP win then the Wildrose, and it looks like that is what it is coming down to is a battle between the two. Die hard Liberals will, like die hard PCs, stay home if they can't vote for their party... that's what I would do if there was no NDP candidate to vote for and no Green on the ballot either.   

[lilTommy]

Its worth noting that 1abvote uses Google Surveys, which is a very different methodology than what other pollsters are doing and still something that's mostly untested for political polling. Their numbers have routinely placed NDP (and Alberta Party) higher and Wildrose lower than what the other pollsters are showing in this election. All three polls that have shown NDP in the lead are 1abvote polls

We've mentioned before that 1ABVote http://1abvote.ca/ leans left, they are very clear about it, so we should take that into consideration. The polling is probably skewed about 3-5%(maybe more but I hope not) towards the NDP and the other moderate-progressive parties. But their polling is in line with others overall i'd say.

[lilTommy]

Well the polling for the NDP looks to be real... the PCs are attacking the NDP now

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/prentice-slams-ndp-platform-in-fort-mcmurray

Here is the rest of the Mainstreet breakdown:

Calgary
WR - 35%
PC - 29%
NDP - 25%
ALP - 6%

Rest of Alberta
WR - 42%
PC - 26%
NDP - 24%
ALP - 3%

19% Undecided... here is the kicker for the NDP "The NDP has the strongest support with 81 per cent of supporters saying they won’t change their mind."

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/three-way-battle-for-alberta-as-campaign-reaches-midpoint-poll

My feeling is the WR will mostly sweep Rural Alberta, the NDP picking up random seats (Lethbridge, maybe 1 or 2 in the north if their vote is efficient); The NDP will sweep Edmonton and Calgary will likely be a mix of WR, PC and NDP (that order)... no Liberals left (Sorry Blakeman, she should have jumped to the NDP when she had the chance)

[lilTommy]

With these numbers, I have 44 NDP, 42 Wildrose and 1 PC....Jim Prentice himself.

LOL

Hoping for this result for sheer comedy value

... That's an NDP majority (slimmest ever but still)

It will be beyond hard to predict seats, outside of Edmonton, the NDPs numbers are so new at this level for many of us it will really come down to local ground game effort. We can "predict" the likely seats like Calgary-Fort and Lethbridge West were strong candidates and pre-polling ground game was already committed, but outside that its a beyond guessing without knowing where the NDP is putting their ground game resources...

[lilTommy]

I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

In general, the NDP holding government at the provincial level tends to hurt the party in that province at the federal level. In 2011, the two provinces where the NDP did not improve on their 2008 vote share were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, the two provinces with NDP governments. That said, the federal election may be too close to this election for people to vote against the federal NDP.

I think that is a good point; the Federal election is later this year, so no more the 6-8 months away. the NDP IF elected wouldn't even really "start" governing in terms of passing a budget till the fall... they would have enough time to keep some of their promises before life happens, so they would still be in their honeymoon stage.
I think 93, is also a good example where the NDP governments (Ontario and BC) they had been around for a few years and that helped safe NDP seats swing Liberal or Reform (specifically thinking Vancouver East)... lost of other things at play then but still

[lilTommy]

Calgary will decide who wins this election. The NDP needs to win the Nenshi coalition to form a majority. They already have Edmonton, and rural Alberta is not going to vote NDP, so this race is going to all come down to Calgary.

Agreed, the NDP is at 40% almost, it would be nice to see the breakdown of where the NDP is at in rural Alberta, that could mean the difference between a handful of rural seats (including Lethbridge East and West or even Red Deer North and South) and pulling up the middle between the WR and PCs and winning more then a dozen with low 30%s

[lilTommy]

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Alberta%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2004%2022)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

the breakdowns or age, income, regions
It is very odd to see the NDP polling highest among the wealthiest yet the PCs polling highest in the low income bracket. EVEN with the NDP running on a platform that talks about raising the income taxes on the wealthy. We easterners have a hard time with that, but hey Alberta, when something makes sense, it makes sense.

The NDP has been now polling consistently in the 30%s this is a very stable trend. Mainstreet and Forum have the NDP about the same in Edmonton (55 and 56)
Do we know if the two poll differently? different groups or sizes or what not?

I'm waiting for the Ab1 poll which have the NDP at 50% province wide

[lilTommy]

Mainstreet:

WRP: 32 (-3)
NDP: 31 (+1)
PC: 26 (+1)
ALP: 8 (+4) [reverting to the mean?]
AP: 4 (n/c)

NDP at 55% in Edmonton (31 point lead), but third place in Calgary and 2nd in ROAB.

For what it's worth, here is the province-wide breakdown including undecided voters:

WRP: 25% (-4)
NDP: 24% (-2)
PC: 20% (n/c)
ALP: 6% (+3)
ABP: 4% (n/c)
Undecided: 21% (+2)

http://www.mainstreettechnologies.ca/wildrose-leads-but-ndp-gains

[lilTommy]

https://www.dropbox.com/s/a6f9pndj33rpaa9/Pantheon%20Release%20Apr%2024th.pdf?dl=0

I think what is interesting about this poll (again, who are they?) is the why were voting whomever..

for the NDP, the main reasons are Notley herself and the NDP being best to govern (31% each) that's telling, as this is not only a vote for Notley but the party's overall policy. Time and again a majority of Albertan's have agreed they want the diversification of the economy, that means not supporting every single bloody oil&gas project.

for the WR, the main reason overwhelmingly is Looking for Change (39%) and 29% for the WR being best to govern. Its telling cause I do think many Undecided PC voters, particularly in Calgary may swing WR, hell they are run by a former Conservative MP who supported Prentice so.

[lilTommy]

More Alberta poll craziness: http://1abvote.ca/poll-ndp-in-a-qualified-lead-while-math-indicates-closing-gap-with-pcs/

Hey, I was close, I said abvote would have the NDP at 50%...

Now both the WR and PCs are campaigning against the NDP, only days ago WR said it would work with the NDP on certain issues... the "right" in Alberta is scared stiff!

[lilTommy]

... former PC Premier Ralph Klein's daughter endorses the Notley's NDP

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lBvHLKiOevM

this looks very amateurish, and probably doesn't matter much and at this point it doesn't surprise me anymore but wow eh

[lilTommy]

Another interesting note from the Mainstreet poll; only 32% believe the PCs will win and 29% believe the NDP will win, to me this make me think the NDP is starting to sink is a a viable alternative to the PCs more then the Wildrose... last minute shifts to the PCs could cause more WR and PC seats to go NDP, as I mentioned pages ago with only 30%s

[lilTommy]

The fact is "hung parliaments "are relatively rare in Canada to begin with - so to say that coalition government is rare is kind of beside the point

This is...not true at all? I can't think of another Western country that uses single-member districts where it is more common for legislatures not to have a majority party than Canada. It was very recently that three consecutive federal elections resulted in no party winning a majority. Lester Pearson never had a majority in the Commons during his tenure as Prime Minister. Minority governments aren't quite as common in provincial legislatures, but they have happened in almost every province. If you say that they're "relatively rare", I really have to question what you're talking about. Canada has plenty of precedent for elections in which no party wins a majority. I can't understand why you're acting like it would be something novel.

I think we can say in Alberta minority governments are rare since the PCs have been in government since 71'. But we've had two, since the 2010's, of recent minority governments in Ontario and Quebec. In western Canada, in recent history, we've seen mostly two-party rule in SASK, MAN and BC so that makes minority government rare but the history is there for them especially when the third party is able to develop a base or niche within a province and can expand on it.

[lilTommy]

http://globalnews.ca/news/1980328/interactive-maps-how-did-your-poll-vote-in-albertas-election/

Poll by poll interactive map