🇩🇪 German elections (federal & EU level)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/D_llack/status/1442232019992264704?s=20

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Yes, this is a real noble running as a MLPD candidate. She won 413 votes in Gotha-Ilm Kreis.

Monarcho-socialism is based

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

maybe a different color scheme for AfD? I know which is which but outside observers might wonder why the AfD is winning in Berlin.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I always like seeing how smaller parties would do in a fully proportional system, and Germany would be… interesting. PARTEI getting 8 seats, the f**king NPD getting in…

I don’t mean to derail here sorry if I do, I just find it interesting to see the smaller numbers for parties we don’t pay attention to

Germany 2021

SPD: 189 seats (-17)
CDU: 139 seats (-12)
GRÜNE: 109 seats (-9)
FDP: 84 seats (-8)
AfD: 76 seats (-7)
CSU: 38 seats (-7)
DIE LINKE: 36 seats (-3)
FREIE WÄHLER: 18 seats (+18)
Tierschutzpartei: 11 seats (+11)
dieBasis: 10 seats (+10)
PARTEI: 8 seats (+8)
Team Todenhöfer: 4 seats (+4)
PIRATEN: 3 seats (+3)
Volt: 3 seats (+3)
ÖDP: 2 seats (+2)
NPD: 1 seat (+1)
SSW: 1 seat (+/- 0)
Gesundheitsforschung: 1 seat (+1)
Die Humanisten: 1 seat (+1)
Bündnis C: 1 seat (+1)
Bayernpartei: 1 seat (+1)
V³: 1 seat (+1)
UfbD: 1 seat (+1)

PARTEI [0.30713 remaining quotas] snags the last seat over Die Grauen [0.30680 quotas], a margin of just 21 votes.

A traffic light coalition still has a decent majority, though lessened to 382/735 seats rather than 416/735.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

I’m amazed the NPD are still allowed to exist at all. Them getting a seat in the Bundestag would probably be the final straw.

They had seats in the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Landtag as recently as 2016.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

It feels like at some point the AfD has to go into power in some form in order for people to realize how bad an idea it is to put them in power.

Until then, they remain the "I hate the current government" option

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

at some point the AfD has to go into power in some form in order for people to realize how bad an idea it is to put them in power.

Until then, they remain the "I hate the current government" option

All this would end up doing is normalizing them. If the past decade or two is any indication letting far right parties into government isn't how you kill them off. Denmark is the example that everyone cites, but the far right just splintered into different parties there, it didn't die. If the AfD was in a coalition anywhere, they are no longer a "pariah," the people voting AfD are already, for the most part, aware of how crazy the party is, now there is a new contingent of perhaps far right-curious voters who are more institutional or establishment minded who would not vote for a pariah party, but would suddenly now consider the AfD. The worst possible strategy is to start treating the AfD as a possible CDU coalition partner. This is all academic because the Union isn't going to be breaking the cordon sanitaire anytime soon.

Perhaps, but I think there's a sizable contingent of voters who don't actually support the far right nonsense but hopped on because they don't like the other options.

My worry is that as the other parties cooperate for longer to leave them out, it leaves those voters with no other choices. As JimJam pointed out, any government with SPD would probably destroy them. And the one likely alternative would leave only the AfD as the right wing anti-government option.

I'm not saying it's good, I'm saying people are stupid and not realizing what they're strengthening.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

at some point the AfD has to go into power in some form in order for people to realize how bad an idea it is to put them in power.

Until then, they remain the "I hate the current government" option

All this would end up doing is normalizing them. If the past decade or two is any indication letting far right parties into government isn't how you kill them off. Denmark is the example that everyone cites, but the far right just splintered into different parties there, it didn't die. If the AfD was in a coalition anywhere, they are no longer a "pariah," the people voting AfD are already, for the most part, aware of how crazy the party is, now there is a new contingent of perhaps far right-curious voters who are more institutional or establishment minded who would not vote for a pariah party, but would suddenly now consider the AfD. The worst possible strategy is to start treating the AfD as a possible CDU coalition partner. This is all academic because the Union isn't going to be breaking the cordon sanitaire anytime soon.

Perhaps, but I think there's a sizable contingent of voters who don't actually support the far right nonsense but hopped on because they don't like the other options.

Well, unfortunately, the far right does not always only win the insane nut jobs. Perhaps the best example of this is in Austria, where for many years the FPO tent consisted of both ex-Nazis and liberals. The liberals ended up there largely out of a lack of other options, given the ties of the right to the church and the ties of the social democrats to unions. The party presented itself as "liberal," but it had explicitly post-Nazi origins and welcomed ex-Nazis both into the party and into leadership. You do not have to be far right to share a party with the far right, and by extension you don't have to be far right to vote for the far right.

My worry is that as the other parties cooperate for longer to leave them out, it leaves those voters with no other choices. As JimJam pointed out, any government with SPD would probably destroy them. And the one likely alternative would leave only the AfD as the right wing anti-government option.

I struggle to see the reasoning here. Those dissatisfied with the SPD for joining a right leaning government would not be opting for the AfD.



AfD's gains came mostly from non-voters, the types of people who are unhappy with the system and would not vote if they were around. The second biggest contributor was unsurprisingly the CDU and the CDU picked Merz as leader in part to tack to the right to win back some of these voters. It looks like that isn't working and frankly if that doesn't work, I don't know if anything will.

I'm not saying it's good, I'm saying people are stupid and not realizing what they're strengthening.

Cooperating with them would immediately legitimize them as a genuine governing partner, that would strengthen them more than any ostracization would. We are still well away from the next election. They could easily fall back to their previous numbers once the series of factors currently boosting them, such as dissatisfaction over migration and high inflation, pass. To make the shortsighted mistake of welcoming them into a coalition now would ensure that their support stays high, and that is a mistake that everyone will pay dearly for.

It's a fair point. I'm just making one I think may have some merit in certain circumstances long term.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

the important thing is to try nd ensure they aren't in a position where they must be considered.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Why would CDU and AFD loose voters to BSW?! And not SPD, Grune and Linke?!

In short, Wagenknecht is known for her anti-immigration, anti-"woke" stances, while being economically left-wing. This has put her at odds with many LINKE members, which is why she left.

That makes her sound perfect, but a bit more research shows she's pro Russia. A shame.

so it's basically the tankie party?