Flipping states with low/high electoral votes. which is harder to do?

[pbrower2a]

Probably no connection. Florida, Ohio, and Virginia are close to the national average in Presidential votes -- but so is Colorado which by this criterion is among the "small states" -- and those are the arguable swing states. Pennsylvania is close to the national average and will likely be the tipping-point state of 2016.

California, Texas, and New York are extremely tough to flip. On the other side...

Connecticut and Michigan have voted together for a long time. So have Arkansas and Tennessee. So it is not a question of "big" and "small". 

Toughest to flip:

Republican

Utah
Idaho
Wyoming
Third Congressional District of Nebraska*
Oklahoma
Alabama
Kansas
North Dakota
Mississippi
South Carolina
Texas
Indiana

Democratic

DC*
Vermont
Hawaii
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
New York
California
Washington
Maryland
Delaware
Minnesota

*Technically not a state, but it votes as such or the state separates its electoral votes

Indiana in 2008 reflects that everything that could go wrong for the GOP went wrong in the Presidential election. The Republican machine got complacent, the Democrat campaigned from the neighboring state and paid attention to it, and a big industry in the state (RV's) got the triple-whammy of a credit crunch, an economic downturn, and a spike in gas prices.   

[pbrower2a]

Based on 1992-2012:

Six times Republican
5R, 1D
4R  2D
even (white)
4D 2R
5D 1R
Six times Democratic

Are you satisfied with this color plan? I'm not. I would never confuse Virginia and West Virginia, which rarely vote together.

Slight modification:

Clinton twice, Obama defeated by 10% twice go to green:

[pbrower2a]

Probably no connection. Florida, Ohio, and Virginia are close to the national average in Presidential votes -- but so is Colorado which by this criterion is among the "small states" -- and those are the arguable swing states. Pennsylvania is close to the national average and will likely be the tipping-point state of 2016.

California, Texas, and New York are extremely tough to flip. On the other side...

Connecticut and Michigan have voted together for a long time. So have Arkansas and Tennessee. So it is not a question of "big" and "small". 

Indiana in 2008 reflects that everything that could go wrong for the GOP went wrong in the Presidential election. The Republican machine got complacent, the Democrat campaigned from the neighboring state and paid attention to it, and a big industry in the state (RV's) got the triple-whammy of a credit crunch, an economic downturn, and a spike in gas prices.   

People vastly overestimate Minnesota and Washington's blueness. In a landslide year, they'd be flipped easily.

An R landslide analogous to the sort of D landslide that could flip Texas would flip Minnesota and Washington. At that one is discussing at least 410 electoral votes.

I put Indiana in the list despite 2008.