Sam Spade's (FINAL, see p.10) Congressional and Senatorial prediction thread...

[Alcon]

Wait, MD is both Dem-leaning and a GOP pick-up?

Yes.  As I said in my previous post, the Toss-up (Lean D), which is in-between Lean D and Toss-up, as well as the other designations are where the numbers say the races are.  The numbers are my "gut" prediction based on the numbers.

If you want me to clarify, I'd be happy to.

All right, I see.

jfern, would you mind linking to those images instead?  They cause my page to not load for some reason.  I had to block the domain.  I may be the only person with the problem, but if not, best to remove them.

Can I inquire about your WA-08 call?  Basically, my gut instinct says Reichert by a few points...but Burner was up in the last polls, if I recall correctly.  It's less my interest in the race than my interest in your methods.  You're my go-to guy.

EDIT: Thanks, jfern.

[Sam Spade]

Wait, MD is both Dem-leaning and a GOP pick-up?

Yes.  As I said in my previous post, the Toss-up (Lean D), which is in-between Lean D and Toss-up, as well as the other designations are where the numbers say the races are.  The numbers are my "gut" prediction based on the numbers.

If you want me to clarify, I'd be happy to.

All right, I see.

jfern, would you mind linking to those images instead?  They cause my page to not load for some reason.  I had to block the domain.  I may be the only person with the problem, but if not, best to remove them.

Can I inquire about your WA-08 call?  Basically, my gut instinct says Reichert by a few points...but Burner was up in the last polls, if I recall correctly.  It's less my interest in the race than my interest in your methods.  You're my go-to guy.

EDIT: Thanks, jfern.

SUSA has said Reichert is ahead (averaged) by anywhere between 3-6.  RT Strategies has it (averaged) around even.  Through my reading of other pundits, local sources and money figures, etc., I suspect the lead is probably around 5.  Burner is a below-average candidate, Reichert is not.

In a wave election, however, this seat could very well fall.  I don't see that happening, though.

In the Senate know MD is "out there", but ID on the Gov. side is as much so, imho.  And I am really indecisive on MO Senate, to put it mildly.

The seat I have the most confidence in my prediction among the 5 questionable races is RI.  I may even be underestimating the win here, even though this seems screwy.

[okstate]

I have a few disagreements, but nothing major.

I still don't see Steele pulling out the win in Maryland, but that doesn't mean it can't happen.

A quick examination of your House rankings doesn't reveal anything that I seriously disagree with.

What House races are you going to watch as bellwether indicators tomorrow?

I'm looking at IN-09... CT-05... and KY-03...

I think if the GOP can hold all these three they'll hold losses to about 18 seats. If they lose all three their losses will be closer to 32 seats. CT-05 is the most likely to go Dem, followed by KY-03 and IN-09, in my analysis.

[Sam Spade]

More comments or criticisms are welcome.  I am happy to discuss how I get to my conclusions any place any time. 

[Sam Spade]

I have a few disagreements, but nothing major.

I still don't see Steele pulling out the win in Maryland, but that doesn't mean it can't happen.

A quick examination of your House rankings doesn't reveal anything that I seriously disagree with.

What House races are you going to watch as bellwether indicators tomorrow?

I'm looking at IN-09... CT-05... and KY-03...

I think if the GOP can hold all these three they'll hold losses to about 18 seats. If they lose all three their losses will be closer to 32 seats. CT-05 is the most likely to go Dem, followed by KY-03 and IN-09, in my analysis.

I have always thought that every election, you've got to pick one surprise somewhere, going by your gut.  MD is my surprise this election in the Senate.  ID is my surprise on the Gov. side.

Your house race button is very strong.  I like your choices of what to watch and your analysis.  I'll also be watching VA-02 and PA-08 early for any sign of a wave.

[AuH2O]

I think Talent is in pretty good shape in MO. He's done what he needs to do, and only a big wave will throw him overboard.

Your RI call is in line with what a lot of people are saying right now, which is that Chafee has surged in the last few days. Odd, but I think it's more than just a M-D poll behind the talk. Then again, I'm not sure this should be that surprising... Lieberman is more hawkish than Chafee and he's rolling in CT.

I think an interesting question is who is more likely to survive between Burns and Allen. You have both losing narrowly which could well happen, personally I think both are too close to make a really educated call (not that you're claiming to be omniscient, don't get me wrong). I think they both squeak out wins, which is optimistic but based on their states and the apparent late movement towards the GOP.

Finally, the Steele controversy... I've been predicting a Steele win for some time. I think the polls are underestimating the share of the black vote he'll wind up with. The big key in MD is that both Steele and Ehrlich are running tremendous campaigns... even if Ehrlich falls a tick short, which could happen, the synergy between the two is a definite positive.

The Dems aren't going to take the Senate, but in that body margin is important, so every race counts.

In the House, I never bought into huge Dem gains and I still don't. Specifically:

IN-02: Should be in your Tossup/Lean D category based on the other races you have in the various spots. This is a close race.

I also doubt the GOP loses OH-1. Polling has been limited in both but that's a "wave" type seat.

Your projections are pretty much in line with the CW though. I just think the GOP will hold a few more seats than expected and take 2-3 instead of 0-1.

[NHPolitico]

Your RI call is in line with what a lot of people are saying right now, which is that Chafee has surged in the last few days. Odd, but I think it's more than just a M-D poll behind the talk. Then again, I'm not sure this should be that surprising... Lieberman is more hawkish than Chafee and he's rolling in CT.

In addition to the poll tightening there, I keep recalling his near-upset primary win just a few months ago-- all due to the effectiveness of the GOTV effort. Chafee seems to know who every one of his supporters are. If he can bring out to vote and get a reasonable level of indy support, he should win.

[MAS117]

My vague predictions are:

Democrats retake majority of Governorships
Democrats retake the House and have a majority of at least 10
Democrats in essence tie in the Senate 48-48-2 winning MT, OH, PA, RI, and either VA or MO.

[Gabu]

Personally I think both [Montana and Virginia] are too close to make a really educated call.

I think they both [Burns and Allen] squeak out wins

At least you admit that your prediction is purely based on who you want to win.

[AuH2O]

I did give a couple reasons though. So they aren't educated but they are mildly informed

[Torie]

[I'm looking at IN-09... CT-05... and KY-03...

I think if the GOP can hold all these three they'll hold losses to about 18 seats. If they lose all three their losses will be closer to 32 seats. CT-05 is the most likely to go Dem, followed by KY-03 and IN-09, in my analysis.]

I agree with all of that, except I don't think all going Dem will mean much per se, from my 21 baseline, maybe 25. If all go GOP, I agree around 18 maybe. Watch Ohio 2. If it goes Dem, then we are pushing 30. Another one would be PA-8.

[Sam Spade]

[I'm looking at IN-09... CT-05... and KY-03...

I think if the GOP can hold all these three they'll hold losses to about 18 seats. If they lose all three their losses will be closer to 32 seats. CT-05 is the most likely to go Dem, followed by KY-03 and IN-09, in my analysis.]

I agree with all of that, except I don't think all going Dem will mean much per se, from my 21 baseline, maybe 25. If all go GOP, I agree around 18 maybe. Watch Ohio 2. If it goes Dem, then we are pushing 30. Another one would be PA-8.

Yep, I should have noted PA-08 as one to watch, as well as OH-02.  Both those are really excellent points.

[Torie]

[I'm looking at IN-09... CT-05... and KY-03...

I think if the GOP can hold all these three they'll hold losses to about 18 seats. If they lose all three their losses will be closer to 32 seats. CT-05 is the most likely to go Dem, followed by KY-03 and IN-09, in my analysis.]

I agree with all of that, except I don't think all going Dem will mean much per se, from my 21 baseline, maybe 25. If all go GOP, I agree around 18 maybe. Watch Ohio 2. If it goes Dem, then we are pushing 30. Another one would be PA-8.

Yep, I should have noted PA-08 as one to watch, as well as OH-02.  Both those are really excellent points.

Another thingie is to look at the margins. If the margins are substantial, rather than skin tight, then we have something potentially much bigger. And the grand thing about Kentucky is that the votes are counted super fast, without all those annoying absentee ballots counted days later.

[okstate]

Those are all important factors to consider, too. Thanks Torie.

[elcorazon]

The reason I don't think Chafee will win is that I suspect he needs too many strong Democrats to vote for him.  Given that the voters are aware that their vote could tip the balance of power in the Senate, I suspect they'll ultimately go with the Dem, at least enough will to provide a victory for the Dems.

The opposite, however may happen in Montana where Strong Republicans may hold their nose and vote Burns.

this is also why I doubt NJ to be truly in doubt, and why Allen could get lucky and pull it out in VA.  It also could explain why Ford has faded in Tenn.