WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Likely D.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Yes, yes! I doubt Morrisey wins the primary vs Jenkins, but if he did, that would be great news for Team Manchin!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

Good points. There is no doubt that Jenkins is a formidable candidate. That's why I would be ecstatic if Morrisey won the primary and faced Manchin.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

Are you referring to winning the primary or GE?

Winning the general, unless he resigns after (hypothetically) winning the primary (which would be stupid).

Jenkins still has my enthusiastic support. Morrissey is an HP.

This. For sure. I really like Jenkins and he is way stronger. Morrisey winning hands over the AG seat to the Democrats and can help rebuild their bench in WV. He's also a carpetbagger from New Jersey who even ran for NJ-07 in the past, while Jenkins is a native West Virginian. And Jenkins' "the Democratic Party left me" message should play really well in West Virginia.

Good points. There is no doubt that Jenkins is a formidable candidate. That's why I would be ecstatic if Morrisey won the primary and faced Manchin.

The only possibility worse than Morrisey is Mooney. His carpetbagging was way worse (at least Morrisey waited a decade, established himself in West Virginia, and he never served as State Party Chair or RNC Delegate in NJ, to my knowledge). And look at these hypothetical polls. Jenkins did the best, Mooney even loses by 10 to Carte Goodwin.

Yeah, they need to deport that conniving beaver either to the moon or back to Mexico.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Morrisey is in. Sad!

YEEEEEEE!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Justice somehow loses in the primary, how much you wanna bet he starts up "Democrats for Jenkins" 

If Swearingen pulls off the unthinkable and beats Manchin in the primaries, I will literally be the first democrat to switch over for Jenkins after the primaries. These people think that just cause Bernie managed to cream Clinton in the primaries here last year, that they are some sort of powerful and reckoning machine in the state. Meanwhile, many of these voters just held their noses and voted for him to block hillary, with a lot of people who would otherwise vote republican join in the democratic primaries just to try to block her.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

If Justice somehow loses in the primary, how much you wanna bet he starts up "Democrats for Jenkins"  

If Swearingen pulls off the unthinkable and beats Manchin in the primaries, I will literally be the first democrat to switch over for Jenkins after the primaries. These people think that just cause Bernie managed to cream Clinton in the primaries here last year, that they are some sort of powerful and reckoning machine in the state. Meanwhile, many of these voters just held their noses and voted for him to block hillary, with a lot of people who would otherwise vote republican join in the democratic primaries just to try to block her.

There are a lot of West Virginians who used to vote reliably Democratic (and some who even voted for Obama twice) who voted for Trump, thanks to people like you.

Yes, I'm sure it's because of people like me, not Clinton being a horrible fit for the state, or how the democratic party is morphing in so many different ways into something that is hardly recognizable or relatable anymore for many blue collar workers that have come upon hard times...  

If anything, people like me would do substantially better in West Virginia than people like you.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Why are centrists so booty-blasted over a weak little primary challenge?

Imagine a little mosquito running around a room constantly biting you. It does not hurt very much, but it is annoying as heck. And that mosquito has an invincible forcefield around it for the next few months, and you can't do anything about it in the meanwhile, but you are constantly counting down the days till that force field comes down, and then after a few claps, you can finally get rid of that little nuisance.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

The Bernie Bros probably don't know what they're doing in this case. Manchin is a popular incumbent Democrat who doesn't act like a Republican-lite. Yes, he is probably the most socially conservative member of the Democratic Caucus, but he still is a reliable Dem vote on progressive economic policies. And it doesn't matter what Bernie Bros outside of West Virginia think; he's not their senator.

All that being said, In the unlikely event that Swearengin does pull off a win, she'd almost certainly be an underdog against Jenkins. Coal is too deeply ingrained into the culture of West Virginia for an anti-coal candidate to win against a pro-coal one.

Very pragmatic, couldn't have said it better!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

These "Justice Democrats" remind me of the Tea Party, but even less smart politically.

As a super progressive, we need Joe Manchin. Conservative Democrats like him and Justice are the only Democrats that can win in West Virginia for Christ's sake.

Think of it this way: If Democrats are too conservative for you in West Virginia, imagine what the Republicans are like!

Boom, exactly! Finally, a far leftie with a good brain on his shoulders here, not a dumb idealist like crushbone or many other maroon avatars on here.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Governor Jim Justice (R-WV) says he supports Joe Manchin.

http://wvmetronews.com/2017/09/20/governor-justice-now-republican-tells-republicans-he-supports-manchins-senate-bid/

WOOHOO!!! BIPARTISAN SUPPORT!!! GO JOE!!!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Worth a shot, but he's getting old.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Cmon Morrisey, hand my homeslice Manchin his third term!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I had a dream last night that I was watching Manchin and Morrissey debate. The first question was, “what do the letters DT stand for to you?” Morrissey said Donald Trump, Manchin said “dat thing” and then started breakdancing as the audience cheered.

In summation, this race is safe D.

Dat's ma homeslice MANCHIN!

via Imgflip Meme Generator

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

http://www.wsaz.com/content/news/WVa--469737723.html

Trump at 51-48 approval in WV.

I suspect this poll is an outlier. But either way, Joe Manchin is basically the extent of the Democratic bench in WV right now.

Yeah, so don't f*** with it Justice Democrats.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin flirted with dropping out, citing annoyance with the Senate and Democratic disrespect for moderates, but is running for reelection.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/23/us/politics/manchin-reelection-this-place-sucks.html

Wow, I hadn't realized he didn't file for re-election. Close one.

Yep.

That is part of the plan to appeal to the "bubba vote". Don't take everything from a politician literally. Trying to portray himself as one of them with his background, talking about dropping out because of lack of progress, throwing around smack like not giving a bleep about reelection, this is all calculated, trust me. Joe Manchin could not have survived this long by being a dummy. He is a brilliant and very strategic politician, truly the last of his kind in WV. Try and name me at least one other living democrat from the state today that could win it statewide on a federal level in a normal election. Barring Ojeda and maybe, just maybe Perdue.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

He also released a wonderful new ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x5Yq2FK9NBw

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin also has gobs of money, and WV is a less expensive state for campaigning.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin also has gobs of money, and WV is a less expensive state for campaigning.

Where do you think he raised that money, working hard at the soup kitchen feeding the homeless? No, raising millions of dollars from his donors and lobbyists who represent wall street and oil and gas companies.

I guess Jenkins or Morrissey would be better senators right?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Manchin also has gobs of money, and WV is a less expensive state for campaigning.

Where do you think he raised that money, working hard at the soup kitchen feeding the homeless? No, raising millions of dollars from his donors and lobbyists who represent wall street and oil and gas companies.

I guess Jenkins or Morrissey would be better senators right?

A Justice Democrat would even get clobbered by Don Blankenship or John Raese.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Who wins the GOP primary, Morrisey, Jenkins, Blankenship, or someone else?

My guess is Morrisey, the people who show up in WV GOP primaries, tend to favor these kinds of candidates. Stale, boring, lazy, establishment, bleh. They don't like firebrands and populists like Jenkins as much, despite how it would be better for their electoral chances. The areas where most of the votes in these GOP primaries in the state comes from traditionally GOP areas in Northern West Virginia, some coal miners, but a lot less.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Is it just me,  or is Morrisey one of the dullest speakers to ever exist?

Not just you.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pence just went to WV and slammed Joe Manchin today. Manchin just hit him back hard. He is one who strongly stands against releasing the Nunes memo, and has just slammed Pence hard. Good look getting Morrissey or Jenkins to do that.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Pence will never be a millionth of the man that Manchin is, go to h*** Pence, Manchin is gonna win again, and you can suck Satan's blank in ****. DEAL WITH IT!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Blankenship winning the primary would obviously be the best possible outcome for Democrats, but I think Manchin will win by smaller margins against the other Republicans as well.