Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

Just a clarification, sorry for the comparison, but the Boric vs Jardue race is basically the same as a Left Bloc vs Communist Party race in my country, right?

Yes, pretty much.

[Mike88]

Just a clarification, sorry for the comparison, but the Boric vs Jardue race is basically the same as a Left Bloc vs Communist Party race in my country, right?

Yes, pretty much.

Thanks. So the results so far, still very, very early, on both sides are quite good for Provoste, it seems.

[kaoras]

Just a clarification, sorry for the comparison, but the Boric vs Jardue race is basically the same as a Left Bloc vs Communist Party race in my country, right?

Yes, pretty much.

Thanks. So the results so far, still very, very early, on both sides are quite good for Provoste, it seems.

Actually there were some rumours about Provoste not even bothering if the winners were Boric and Sichel, the source is not really reliable but the consensus is that the best scenario for Provoste is Jadue-Lavín.

[seb_pard]

Just a clarification, sorry for the comparison, but the Boric vs Jardue race is basically the same as a Left Bloc vs Communist Party race in my country, right?

Yes, and parallels don't end there, you can say this is the same as the Left Bloc vs CDU, as the Communist Party is allied with the Social Green Regionalist Federation, which is a very nasty and corrupt party, but is an interesting coincidence (if you see them like a Green Party)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Green_Regionalist_Federation
 

[Mike88]

Just a clarification, sorry for the comparison, but the Boric vs Jardue race is basically the same as a Left Bloc vs Communist Party race in my country, right?

Yes, pretty much.

Thanks. So the results so far, still very, very early, on both sides are quite good for Provoste, it seems.

Actually there were some rumours about Provoste not even bothering if the winners were Boric and Sichel, the source is not really reliable but the consensus is that the best scenario for Provoste is Jadue-Lavín.

Interesting. In the eventuality she doesn't run and the center-left opt out, who would she endorse? Sichel, maybe, right? as he was in the past from PDC.

Yes, and parallels don't end there, you can say this is the same as the Left Bloc vs CDU, as the Communist Party is allied with the Social Green Regionalist Federation, which is a very nasty and corrupt party, but is an interesting coincidence (if you see them like a Green Party)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Green_Regionalist_Federation

Poor PEV, the satelite party of PCP, they wished to be just a bit corrupt.  Just kidding, but they are very irrelevant. That party, the Social Green Regionalist Federation, at least contested elections on its own, PEV never did that.

Why are they seen as very corrupt?

[kaoras]

Just a clarification, sorry for the comparison, but the Boric vs Jardue race is basically the same as a Left Bloc vs Communist Party race in my country, right?

Yes, pretty much.

Thanks. So the results so far, still very, very early, on both sides are quite good for Provoste, it seems.

Actually there were some rumours about Provoste not even bothering if the winners were Boric and Sichel, the source is not really reliable but the consensus is that the best scenario for Provoste is Jadue-Lavín.

Interesting. In the eventuality she doesn't run and the center-left opt out, who would she endorse? Sichel, maybe, right? as he was in the past from PDC.

Yes, and parallels don't end there, you can say this is the same as the Left Bloc vs CDU, as the Communist Party is allied with the Social Green Regionalist Federation, which is a very nasty and corrupt party, but is an interesting coincidence (if you see them like a Green Party)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Green_Regionalist_Federation

Poor PEV, the satelite party of PCP, they wished to be just a bit corrupt.  Just kidding, but they are very irrelevant. That party, the Social Green Regionalist Federation, at least contested elections on its own, PEV never did that.

Why are they seen as very corrupt?

No, Provoste would endorse UC candidate (probably narvaez). She is really lefty for a DC, I think she would even support Jadue against the right.

FREVS is basically a loose collection of ex-concertación machines and got caught in a very nasty affair with a group of mayors tied to narcotraphic in their process of expansion to Santiago.

[seb_pard]

Chances of Provoste endorsing Sichel are close to 0. We could say she is part of the center-left wing of the DC and also the relationship between Sichel and the DC is very bad.

[Mike88]

Hmm.. right. So things are still quite open. Narváez seems not very popular, at least in polling but, once again, polling in Chile seems to be more and more unreliable.

FREVS is basically a loose collection of ex-concertación machines and got caught in a very nasty affair with a group of mayors tied to narcotraphic in their process of expansion to Santiago.

Jesus!! What the hell!?

[Lumine]

It would be beyond hilarious if Jadue and Lavín both are knocked out tonight after spending more than a year as frontrunners and inevitable nominees. Not certain yet, but it would quite something.

Boric would be harder to defeat in a second round, but since victory for the right is increasingly unlikely on the first place, I can't say I'm sad to see him ahead. I do wonder if he'll have trouble on the first round with the more hard-left candidates who show up.

[kaoras]

We are done here. Is Sichel-Boric. Chilean polling shines once more

[Mike88]

We are done here. Is Sichel-Boric. Chilean polling shines once more

Yeah, completely useless. They should find other means of employment

[kaoras]

Most voted pact in Santiago. Red is AD, Blue is CV

[Mike88]

Sichel is inching closer and closer to 50%.

Also, Chile Vamos turnout is at 239,915 and Apruebo Dignidad at 276,458. (46.5-53.5%)

[kaoras]

Kinda worried about the turnout. I expected more advantage for AD. 

[Mike88]

In the feed I'm watching, 24horas.cl, they are saying that there were center-right voters who voted for Boric in order to defeat Jardue.

[kaoras]

In the feed I'm watching, 24horas.cl, they are saying that there were center-right voters who voted for Boric in order to defeat Jardue.

Yeah, the turnout difference in D11 say otherwise. Is spin to explain why AD beat them in turnout.

[Mike88]

In the feed I'm watching, 24horas.cl, they are saying that there were center-right voters who voted for Boric in order to defeat Jardue.

Yeah, the turnout difference in D11 say otherwise. Is spin to explain why AD beat them in turnout.

I was hearing and I also though it didn't made sense as many center-left voters from PDC, PS, PPD, could have also decided to vote in those primaries.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

A great victory for the colour yellow

[kaoras]

A great victory for the colour yellow

As I said, Boric and Jadue have basically the same platform and Sichel didn't win by being centrist, it was a backlash against Lavín for being centrist.

But political analysts who don't know better and kept saying that everybody wanted more of the economic model before the social uprising will probably repeat you point, yes.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

A great victory for the colour yellow

As I said, Boric and Jadue have basically the same platform and Sichel didn't win by being centrist, it was a backlash against Lavín for being centrist.

But political analysts who don't know better and kept saying that everybody wanted more of the economic model before the social uprising will probably repeat you point, yes.

Seemed more like a knock on the anti-Boric left (and of course fun for Sichel, who has chosen a particularly ugly shade of yellow IMO) than a defense of the modelo to me, tbh.

[Boobs]

So can we no longer expect a Provoste entrance, seeing these results?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Shoutout to Jadue for getting more votes than Sichel, btw.

[Velasco]

In the feed I'm watching, 24horas.cl, they are saying that there were center-right voters who voted for Boric in order to defeat Jardue.

Yeah, the turnout difference in D11 say otherwise. Is spin to explain why AD beat them in turnout.

"Centre-right" voters are supporters of Vamos Chile?  If so, is it clever voting for Boric to beat the commie?

[Skye]

Latin American polls strike again.

[Mike88]

Cadem released a confidential poll conducted during last week:

ChV primary:

39% Sichel
30% Lavín
13% Briones
10% Desbordes

AD primary:

53% Boric
43% Jadue

Presidential election:

15% Sichel
12% Boric
11% Lavín
11% Jadue
  9% Provoste
  8% Jiles
  6% Kast
  5% Parisi
  4% Desbordes
  3% Briones
  2% Narváez
  1% Maldonado

Poll conducted between 14 and 15 July 2021. Polled 3,200 voters.