Quebec Provincial election October 1, 2018

[lilTommy]

Unfortunately they will be irrelevant, doing slightly better than the last left wing federalist party did a few elections ago (the UCQ).

Unfortunately That's going to be the case, QS is already the solid Left-wing option... I do think there is some room among Anglo's who fear QS is too sovereigntist, just not enough I think to really unseat any Liberals (like 10% would be a solid win for the NPDQ) . Also, I know people, anglo's, who are active in reaching out to this group on behalf of QS.
That article also does not give Fortin his due, he's twice been a federal candidate 2008 and 2015, but hey that's not important to mention
 
Best shot, is to pick one riding, very federalist but left-leaning and put ALL their resources into getting Fortin elected. A riding like perhaps Verdun, or Saint-Henri - Sainte-Anne.   

[lilTommy]

Some nominations:

Journalist Vincent Marissal is running for QS in Rosemont; notable since he will go up against PQ leader Jean-François Lisée. This was already a top 3 seat for QS I believe

NPDQ leader Raphael Fortin, wisely so, will run in the Montreal riding of Verdun. This is one of the few Montreal ridings where I think the NPDQ could do very well, perhaps even win. The others I thought were Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne or Notre-Dame-de-Grace. Huge long shot, but a good riding to start in. 

[lilTommy]

I see polls above suggesting the CPQ + NDPQ will win as much as 6%
What do Québec people think of this? It seems really high to me, as they are worse than 4th parties in a plurality electoral system.
If they underperform, who benefits relative to today's polls?

Quebec is very unique in this regards, the province has had a penchant for electing minor parties/independents.
Going back to the, about 1900's minor parties were winning 1-3 seats, fringe parties back then were nationalists, workers etc. In the 30's the ALN came out of nowhere and would become the Union Nationale. CCF won seats, the Créditistes won seats, in 1970 you saw the PQ win 7, Créditistes with 12. The PQ was basically a minor party for 6 years (2 elections) till they won power. l'ADQ was a minor party for about a decade till they burst in 2007, now as the CAQ are close to winning. QS won its first in 08, and has won an additional seat each election. I would say its not totally out of scope for, in particular the the NPDQ, to win a seat... if they focus on just Fortin. But Verdun is a hard seat to win since the PQV is also running their leader there.
Had the NPDQ, PQV and even to a lesser extent QS worked together to mutually elect their leaders (not run a candidate and "endorse" each other, certainly not run leaders against each other) the NPDQ could have won Verdun. But not now, not this election their first time out. But it is Quebec politics, stranger things have happened.

[lilTommy]

What seats would the QS pick up if they shot ahead of the PQ and ended up with say, 20% of the vote?

Let's try! - http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/simulateur-pour-le-quebec.html

not perfect, but... use the polling about PLQ 33, CAQ 28 QS 20 PQ 15

Bourget, Maurice-Richard, Rosemont, Taschereau; outside of the 6 or so they are expected to win. Grain-of-salt though.

[lilTommy]

LeDevoir has an interactive Poll-by-poll results:
https://www.ledevoir.com/politique/quebec/539627/cartographique-de-la-victoire-caquiste?fbclid=IwAR0RbPLG_JdZo9hUAP9eBf1RvJaUZesVBvULl5zCctcMISHYTjiWuDvNdxk

And election-atlas has their maps updated to:
http://www.election-atlas.ca/qc/

[lilTommy]

Seems PLQ won a lot of the polls near the US border which I believe has a sizeable Anglophone community. Much of the rest follows what you would expect. Surprised though there is an orange line running the entire north to south of the island of Montreal near Saint Laurent Boulevard. I thought once you got north of the autoroute that was solid PLQ territory due to large Allophone community and only south of it on the east Island did it go QS (previously PQ and also CAQ on the very eastern edges). Also looks like CAQ won more polls on Laval than PLQ so PLQ must have run up the margins more in their pockets of support.

Someone who lives in Montreal might be able to answer: but Maurice-Richard (the riding, formerly Cremazie) has always been competitive between the PQ and PLQ. The PQ held the seat in 2012 when they were gov't. This area, the Ahuntsic and Youville neighborhoods look to be pretty competitive for the left. Federally this area was held by the Bloc->NDP MP Maria Mourani, and in 2015 Ahuntsic still went pretty strongly for the NDP. Project Montreal also won Ahuntsic and Sault-aux-Recollett council seats. It looks like this area is becoming more and more like areas to the south like Laurier-Dorion.