UK By-elections thread, 2021-

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Combined by-election results
Conservative 36,439
Labour 30,935
Liberal Democrat 22,901

For reference, 2019 totals for the big three parties in these three seats:

Conservative: 95,576
Labour: 40,353
Liberal Democrat: 24,866

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

The Tory GE campaign next year is gonna be some of the most desperate and embarrassing stuff of all time.

Dare I say it? Febrile?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Why has there been a reduction in the number of MPs resigning to take ‘big jobs’?

They’re doing f*uck-all right now and getting paid for it. Why go for a job that requires “actual work”?

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Does the Rochdale seat change much in redistribution? Presumably no matter who wins the byelection its almost certain Labour wins the seat in the general election and this byelection will tell us absolutely nothing about national trends.

From Labour's POV what is the least bad outcome? Ali still winning under the Labour label but having to sit as an independent? Danczuk winning and giving Reform UK a seat? Galloway winning? A Tory coming up the middle? Could the Lib Dems fill the vacuum, they held this seat many years ago

The Lib Dems are tainted by *who* held this seat many years ago.

explain

From Wikipedia’s article on Cyril Smith:

Sir Cyril Richard Smith MBE MStJ DL (28 June 1928 – 3 September 2010) was a British Liberal Party politician who served as Member of Parliament (MP) for Rochdale from 1972 to 1992.

…

In 2012, after his death and following allegations of child sexual abuse, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) formally admitted that Smith should have been charged with such abuse during his lifetime. In November 2012, Greater Manchester Police (GMP) Assistant Chief Constable Steve Heywood said there was "overwhelming evidence" that young boys were sexually and physically abused by Smith.

In April 2014, it was reported that there had been 144 complaints against Smith from victims as young as eight years of age. Attempts to prosecute Smith had been blocked. Public authorities—including Rochdale Borough Council, the police, and intelligence services–have been implicated in covering up Smith's alleged crimes. In 2015, it emerged that Smith had been arrested in the early 1980s in relation to some of these offences; however, a high-level cover-up reportedly led to destruction of evidence, Smith's rapid release within hours, and the invocation of the Official Secrets Act to prevent the investigating officers from discussing the matter.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Certainly stating the obvious here, but I feel like this is gonna be one of the biggest sh*tshows of a by-election since, well, probably the last time Galloway won. A Loony win would be amazing, but I wouldn’t mind seeing Mark Coleman win either.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

The above Henry Riley thread now quotes Galloway's campaign manager as saying that they have won.

Team Galloway: Stop the Count