Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regulars will know this anyway, but this would be the best Labor result since the 1990s (slightly better than 1999 actually) and a Likud result on par with 2009.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So Herzog needs the Joint List + Kulanu to become PM. Netanyahu only needs Kulanu and can cobble together either a narrow right-wing coalition if Kachlon agrees or a broader unity coalition.

[Silent Hunter]

Lovely... unless you want peace in the Middle East.

[Torie]

So Herzog needs the Joint List + Kulanu to become PM. Netanyahu only needs Kulanu and can cobble together either a narrow right-wing coalition if Kachlon agrees or a broader unity coalition.

Looks like it per my math. I know nothing about Israeli politics, but it is hard for me to believe that Kalanu would join a coalition that depends on the acquiescence of the JL to keep it going. JL would have to give a lot of assurances that they will behave and not cause mischief, to persuade them otherwise.

[DL]

Getting just 8 seats has to be a catastrophically bad result for Jewish Home - not too long ago Bennett seemed to have so much momentum and they were looking to get in the high teens

[jaichind]

Any links to results ?

http://bechirot.gov.il/election/English/pages/default.aspx

does not seem to work

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Getting just 8 seats has to be a catastrophically bad result for Jewish Home - not too long ago Bennett seemed to have so much momentum and they were looking to get in the high teens

Likud cannibalized everyone to get to this lead-tie. If they didn't marginalize the other right-wing parties, Herzog would be ending this round with a healthy lead and massive international pressure to make him PM.

[DL]

Likud cannibalized everyone to get to this lead-tie. If they didn't marginalize the other right-wing parties, Herzog would be ending this round with a healthy lead and massive international pressure to make him PM.

Since when does "international pressure" make any difference to coalition negotiations in Israel???

[Famous Mortimer]

Getting just 8 seats has to be a catastrophically bad result for Jewish Home - not too long ago Bennett seemed to have so much momentum and they were looking to get in the high teens

Hell, he was running in second place before Labor and Livni merged. There was even (somewhat ridiculous but not that ridiculous) talk of him being PM.

[ag]

Getting just 8 seats has to be a catastrophically bad result for Jewish Home - not too long ago Bennett seemed to have so much momentum and they were looking to get in the high teens

Likud cannibalized everyone to get to this lead-tie. If they didn't marginalize the other right-wing parties, Herzog would be ending this round with a healthy lead and massive international pressure to make him PM.

But in the process they lost Yachad, making their coalition that much harder.

[jaichind]

If these exit polls hold up, then all those last minute tactics by Bibi, as sad and desperate as they sounded, actually seems to have worked.  Likud always had a closer  route to power than ZU, the main problem was the optics of a ZU having a large lead over Likud but resulting in a Likud government.   Of it seems that Yachad might be a causality of this but I am sure Bibi will be glad to make that sacrifice.  

[DL]

In 2009 didn't Netanyahu end up forming a government even though Kadima under Livni had one or two seats more than Likud?

[jaichind]

But in the process they lost Yachad, making their coalition that much harder.

Yes, but one benefit of this is that Likud will not end up being the most left wing party of a rightist coalition and instead by roping in Kulanu Likud will be in the middle of Bibi's new government.

[Silent Hunter]

Since when does "international pressure" make any difference to anything in Israel???

Fixed your post.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Getting just 8 seats has to be a catastrophically bad result for Jewish Home - not too long ago Bennett seemed to have so much momentum and they were looking to get in the high teens

Likud cannibalized everyone to get to this lead-tie. If they didn't marginalize the other right-wing parties, Herzog would be ending this round with a healthy lead and massive international pressure to make him PM.

But in the process they lost Yachad, making their coalition that much harder.

The votes are still there rather easily, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're actually okay with not having to deal with the Marzel issue any further.

[jaichind]

Exit poll table

                          ----------------- Pollster -----------------
Party                          Channel 1     Channel 2    Channel 10
=======================================================================
                          ------------ Number of Seats --------------
Likud                                 27            28            27
Zionist Union                      27            27            27
Jewish Home                        9             8             8
Yesh Atid                           12            12            11
United Arab List                 12            13            13
Kulanu                                10             9            10
Yisrael Beytenu                     5             5             5
Shas                                     7             7             7
United Torah Judaism           6             6             7
Meretz                                 5             5             5
Yahad                                  0             0             0
=======================================================================

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

In 2009 didn't Netanyahu end up forming a government even though Kadima under Livni had one or two seats more than Likud?

One more seat, yeah. But it was a clear margin, with the right having at least 65 seats and no path to a coalition for Livni. This time, things are more volatile with a centrist party holding the balance.

[Famous Mortimer]

In 2009 didn't Netanyahu end up forming a government even though Kadima under Livni had one or two seats more than Likud?

Yes. Labor technically isn't out of the running but they really needed to come in first to convince Kulanu and Shas (and possibly Yisrael Beytenu) to go against their natural right-wing leanings and join them in a coalition.

[King of Kensington]

It'll be interesting to see what happens if a coalition forms with the tacit support of the united list which doesn't have the support of a majority of Jewish voters. 

[ag]

Getting just 8 seats has to be a catastrophically bad result for Jewish Home - not too long ago Bennett seemed to have so much momentum and they were looking to get in the high teens

Likud cannibalized everyone to get to this lead-tie. If they didn't marginalize the other right-wing parties, Herzog would be ending this round with a healthy lead and massive international pressure to make him PM.

But in the process they lost Yachad, making their coalition that much harder.

The votes are still there rather easily, and I wouldn't be surprised if they're actually okay with not having to deal with the Marzel issue any further.

Second may well be true. But the first is not. Kahlon might, for instance, insist on a unity government - and now he can make this bind. And, in any case, the coalition that they would get this way will have only as many seats as they had before the disolution - sans Hatnua and YA.  And, arguably, Kahlon is not much more of a reliable partner than YA was.

[ag]

In 2009 didn't Netanyahu end up forming a government even though Kadima under Livni had one or two seats more than Likud?

Yes. Labor technically isn't out of the running but they really needed to come in first to convince Kulanu and Shas (and possibly Yisrael Beytenu) to go against their natural right-wing leanings and join them in a coalition.

Kulanu is enough, as long as JL is willing to offer outside support.

[ag]

A unity government on this results would still mean history: the new leader of the opposition!

[ag]

G-d willing these exit polls are right and a right-wing coalition is formed.

Salami willing, it will not be.

[Comrade Funk]

G-d willing these exit polls are right and a right-wing coalition is formed.

Hamas says the same thing

[ag]

G-d willing these exit polls are right and a right-wing coalition is formed.

Hamas says the same thing

Of course: in another 10 years they would be joining that same coalition.