Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[danny]

A comparison of the turnout by time for all the elections since 1973:

[Tender Branson]

Pretty cool that turnout is increasing for the 3rd time in a row now.

[ag]

30 minutes to go. And no leaks of exit polls, it seems. GET US SOMETHING!

[MalaspinaGold]

I just saw this on facebook (my source says from a leaked unfinished channel 2 poll)
27: Likud
27: ZU
12: Yesh Atid
11: JL
8-9: JH/Kulanu

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Supposedly one is: Labor 27, Likud 26, Joint List 15, Kulanu 12, YA 11, JH 8, Shas 7, YB 4-5, Meretz 4, Yachad out.

UTJ not mentioned??? Presumably their usual figure then.

[Comrade Funk]

i24 says Meretz/YB in, Yachad out. Just rumors though. Exciting!!! American elections are so boring.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Yachad out?  If this is true, good news.  That hurts Bibi's chances of winning.

[cp]

Could someone give a list of the parties sorted by whether they are left/right leaning? i.e.  which ones are likely to form a coalition with each other (and which ones are up for grabs)

Sorry for the noob-ish level of ignorance. I can't keep track of all the party names for the life of me!

[ag]

Could someone give a list of the parties sorted by whether they are left/right leaning? i.e.  which ones are likely to form a coalition with each other (and which ones are up for grabs)

Likud, YB and JH are right wing and would form a coalition together. They will be, most likely, joined by the relgious parties: Shas, UTJ and Yachad (the latter - a mixture of scraps from Shas and JH and an outright neonazi, all drawn together by the electoral threshold - but the Nazi would stay out of the government, letting the rest join).

ZU (Labor+Hatnua), Meretz, and, to some extent, YA are left wing and would easily join in a coalition between themselves. JL is a mixture of Arabs and communists, drawn together by the electoral threshold. They would, probably, support the left-wing coalition from the outside.

Kulanu is centrist and may be the kingmaker.

[Famous Mortimer]

Could someone give a list of the parties sorted by whether they are left/right leaning? i.e.  which ones are likely to form a coalition with each other (and which ones are up for grabs)

Sorry for the noob-ish level of ignorance. I can't keep track of all the party names for the life of me!

It's been done twice already in this thread. Just go the first page.

As to who is likely to form a coalition with who, aside from some very obvious stuff like Meretz (leftists) prefer a coalition with Labor and Jewish Home (religious conservatives) prefer a coalition with Likud, nothing is set in stone.

[MalaspinaGold]

Could someone give a list of the parties sorted by whether they are left/right leaning? i.e.  which ones are likely to form a coalition with each other (and which ones are up for grabs)

Likud, YB and JH are right wing and would form a coalition together. They will be, most likely, joined by the relgious parties: Shas, UTJ and Yachad (the latter - a mixture of scraps from Shas and JH and an outright neonazi, all drawn together by the electoral threshold - but the Nazi would stay out of the government, letting the rest join).

ZU (Labor+Hatnua), Meretz, and, to some extent, YA are left wing and would easily join in a coalition between themselves. JL is a mixture of Arabs and communists, drawn together by the electoral threshold. They would, probably, support the left-wing coalition from the outside.

Kulanu is centrist and may be the kingmaker.

ftfy

[danny]

Could someone give a list of the parties sorted by whether they are left/right leaning? i.e.  which ones are likely to form a coalition with each other (and which ones are up for grabs)

Sorry for the noob-ish level of ignorance. I can't keep track of all the party names for the life of me!

Right wing coalition members- Likud, Jewish Home, Yachad
Left Wing coalition members- Zionist Union, Meretz, Yesh Atid (kind of, could join Bibi but would prefer the Zionist Union).
Religious partis that can go for both but would be more natural on the right- Shas, UTJ
Kulanu is can easily fit in both the left and right.
The Joint List- The Arab party that won't be in any coalition.

[ag]

Last-minute support call from Yachad. Looks like they are in danger, indeed. They say they are 1500 votes from the threshold. Could be a long night for everyone

[ag]

Likud 28
ZU 27
JL 13
YA 12

Yachad out

[danny]

Channel 2 exit poll:
Likud 28
ZU: 27
JL: 13
YA: 12
Kulanu: 9
JH: 8
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
Lieberman: 5

Yishai is out

[MalaspinaGold]

According to Channel 2:
Likud: 28
ZU: 27
JL: 13
Yesh Atid: 12
Kulanu: 9
JH: 8
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 5
YB: 5
Yachad: 0

[ag]

So, broad left (including ZL) would be at 57. Kulanu is the kingmaker.

[MalaspinaGold]

Knesset Channel:
27: ZU
26: Likud

[ag]

Channel 10

Likud 27
ZU 27
JL 13
YA 11
Kulanu 10
JH 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7
YB 5
Meretz 5

[DL]

The average of polls has put the anti-Bibi/left at 55-57 seats for about the past six weeks...nothing new there

[cp]

How accurate are these polls in general? Have there been big changes once the results are published or are they typically pretty close to the final result?

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

President Rivlin calls for unity government, as per i24.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Much drama.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regulars will know this anyway, but this would be the best Labor result since the 1990s (slightly better than 1999 actually) and a Likud result on par with 2009.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So Herzog needs the Joint List + Kulanu to become PM. Netanyahu only needs Kulanu and can cobble together either a narrow right-wing coalition if Kachlon agrees or a broader unity coalition.